All of (notoriously conservative) Orange County went Dem. Trump has really lost the GOP the suburbs. Good.
It’s now over 3000 votes.
Fucking Californians on the new tax bill was a bad idea.
That’s a good point. How many of the democratic pickups are from districts hit by the tax law and the SALT deductions?
I assume upper middle class households in California, New york and New Jersey were hit hard by the tax law.
All of New Jersey’s suburban Republican districts flipped.
IIRC, all of New York City’s rep are now Dems. But it only required flipping 1 seat.
Yeah, that was not particularly surprising though. Staten Island has been a R stronghold for decades but only barely.
On Meet the Press this AM, Chuck Todd noted that that there is now only 1 Congressional district of the lower 48 that touches the Pacific Coast that is Republican. That 1 district is in WA. I think he may have made the mistake of leaving out the “lower 48” part when he talked about this. IIRC, he did not include Alaska or Hawaii on the map he showed-- just CA, OR and WA.
None of the house seats in new england are currently republican now either.
This is better suited to Elections.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
I think this sentence is an oxymoron. Just sayin’. 
I see your dilemma :), but if you follow NY politics it actually makes perfect sense.
“Stronghold”: Going back to about 1982 or something, a Republican has virtually always won whatever district Staten Island was in. I’m sure there are congressional districts (Nebraska’s 3rd district, several districts in OK and UT and SC, say) that have always gone Republican during this time, but the Staten Island seat came mighty close to that level of consistency.
“Just barely”: many, though not all, of the elections were pretty close, forcing the Republicans to spend a lot of money, campaign hard, etc.
So, the GOP wound up almost always in control of the district, but couldn’t count on it from one year to the next.
Weird wording, true, but very apt.
Nate Silver’s been saying CA-21 isn’t over yet.
So probably 45-8, but possibly 46-7.
A 2200 vote difference??? Seriously?
That was said 5 days ago. I think it’s likely that is not the current feeling?
None of the outstanding ballots have been counted in the meantime (or at least, there’s been no change in the CA SoS site’s counts), and Nate’s most recent tweet about CA-21 was still that Cox could still pull it out.
ETA: I have done exactly zero analysis of this race myself. But if Nate Silver says it ain’t over, it probably ain’t over.
Mainly because there are still a lot of ballots to count in the most Democratic part of the district. It’s still rather a long shot, but Cox does have a chance. And this was a race that was called for the Republicans by the networks ages ago!
The interesting thing about this race is that Valadao’s now quite the outlier in terms of being a Republican holding on (if he does so!) in a very Democratic district (Cook PVI of D+5).
As best as I can tell, only one other Republican, John Katko in NY-24 which is D+3, will still represent a district that leans Dem as measured by the Cook PVI. The Republicans won’t even hold any seats with a Cook PVI of Even in the new Congress.
And Nate Silver still calls this a tossup:
(TX-23 isn’t listed because Ortiz Jones (D) just conceded to Hurd (R). NY-22 isn’t listed because 538 has called that as a Dem pickup.)
It’s now 447 votes and still uncalled.
And I’ve made the offer in other threads, so I should do so here: if anyone wants to put down an even-money bet on Valadao, I’m ready to put a few bucks down on T.J. Cox. Looks like another batch of ballots will be counted by Monday evening, bets should be made before then…
I assume that that’s meant as a show of solidarity, not as an actual hope for profit? Because even the most optimistic projections still show the race as favoring Valadao.