How many potential marital partners does an average American woman meet in her lifetime?
I’m wondering if there’s any sensible way to even begin arriving at a reasonable estimate, and if so what that estimate would be. We can be certain the correct figure is more than 1 and less than 3.5 billion (the approximate number of men on the planet). So, can we narrow it down any further?
In lieu of any good statistical basis for an answer, what strikes you as a reasonable estimate? 1000? 5000? 10,000?
You need to clarify this question a whole lot more.
Some percentage of the men she meets, of course. Unless she is a celebrity. But, social media…
There isn’t a way to answer this question in general terms because many of the factors involved vary wildly depending on the person. For example, a Jewish woman who is committed to only marrying a Jewish man will get very different results if she lives in New York City as opposed to Billings, Montana.
However, there is a way to attack these problems using fuzzy math. This techniqe is exemplified in the problem of figuring out how many piano tuners there are in New York using only basic, estimated facts and without looking anything up.
I won’t do the math for you because it depends on whatever assumptions you want to make but you can get surprisingly accurate results if you work through it. In this case, you will probably find out some things that may seem counter-intuitive at first glance. For example, who will meet the most potential marriage partners, an average looking high school graduate or a knockout with a PhD who makes $200,000 a year? The answer is the average looking high school graduate by a long huge margin simply because there aren’t that many men that can match up with the PhD knockout.
Some versions of that apply to everyone. You have to look at acceptable age ranges, physical attractiveness, income potential, health issues, fertility, personality traits, race, religion and geography for starters. Each of those will have varying degrees of importance for most people and have to be weighted accordingly. You can take population demographics in a given area and start chipping away all of the people that are disqualified for any reason to get a starting pool of candidates. Then you have to figure out the probability that two compatible people will cross paths in a way that leads to meaningful interaction.
It is a difficult conceptual problem and it varies by person but the math is easy once you list all the qualifying and disqualifying factors and then apply them to a given population.
The answer to this question depends entirely on what you mean by “potential”. My first thought was that every man a woman ever meets in her lifetime is a potential marriage partner, in that it’s conceivable that she could marry that man (possibly after a divorce, or waiting for the prospective partner to come to age). But then I realized that, even for a man she hasn’t met, it’s conceivable that she might somehow meet him and then marry him. And for that matter, it’s also possible that she and her partner might move to some place where same-sex marriage is legal, so every woman is a potential marriage partner, too. Which puts the number of potential partners at well over seven billion (over, because they need not all be alive at the same time).
And does the average man meet more, or fewer, potential marriage partners than the average woman does?
And what about states and countries that allow same-sex marriage?
Assuming heterosexual partners and equal number of men and women in the population, exactly the same number.
Any human she met is potential
There are other assumptions you could make though. A reasonable one might be that of all the men she encounters in her life, only the ones who are single at the time of the encounter are “potential” husbands.
We really ought to have separate calculations for straight, gay and bi women. A random woman isn’t a potential marriage partner for a straight woman, no matter where she lives. And if she’s a lesbian in a same-sex marriage state, you still can’t count every woman as a potential partner. You’d have to figure what proportion of the women she meets are gay or bisexual.
Of course, this question entirely rests on the assumptions made, and so has a different answer for every woman. Most women would write off all people above or below a certain age. Some women might write off entire races, ethnicities or religions. Some women might dismiss people of a certain profession, or income bracket, or people with disabilities. Those will all change the answer.
If you make that assumption, shouldn’t you also rule out all the men she meets at a time when she herself is not single?
Since my state doesn’t recognize gay marriage, would the correct answer for a Lesbian who stays within the state borders be zero?
Yes, but I was thinking “unmarried” rather than “single”, since plenty of people meet while they’re in another relationship and go on to date after the first relationship is over. But then that applies equally to marriages, so I guess any married guy you meet is also a potential husband if that’s the way you two roll. But again, that depends on the individual woman.
There’s also the possibility that Suzy Not-a-homewrecker might become one for a suitably fantastic man. So what percentage of married men are handsome, rich, and talented enough to become potential spouses despite being married to someone else?
Ever more to think about.
And that thinking will fairly soon lead to the conclusion that “potential marriage partner” is such an impossibly vague term that it makes no sense to think of counting potential marriage partners.
No, all the men she meets are potential marriage partners, in that she could marry them. She just doesn’t want to.
People here are going off track on how to solve these. You need to go back and read how to solve a Fermi problem like “How many piano tuners are there in NYC?”. You have use knowledge and common sense to solve this problem based on what you know about dating and attraction in general.
Where you are going badly wrong is assuming that any person that can legally be married to another person is a potential marriage partner. It is in the legal sense but not in the real-world one. That is an example of something that is technically true yet has no real relevance to the question at hand.
Here is the link if you need it again. Google picks it as a top result and I was the best responder so you need to listen.
It isn’t that hard of a problem but it varies by person. Pick an example case, figure out the population they have to work with and then whittle it down step by step until you come up with a reasonable result. If your assumptions are reasonably accurate and complete, they will average out and you will get a surprisingly accurate result.
The numbers that I worked out for myself are fairly low. They aren’t in the billions, millions or even tens of thousands. By my own criteria, I have about 10,000 potential marriage partners worldwide and I have run across exactly two of them in my lifetime although you could make the case that the one I married and divorced wasn’t a good fit. That leaves me with one but I am picky and have very specific requirements down to hair and eye color, looks, political beliefs, education and income. Many people won’t be that picky but sexual preference, age range and personality traits are a pre qualifier for almost everyone. Pick the set of traits that is important and then whittle the population down from there.
Look at this problem like a composite of Bell curves and bubble charts. The person that is dead average on almost everything in their given population is going to have the most potential marriage partners. Most people will only be slightly above them or slightly below on most traits and that is a workable compromise all around.
People that are outliers on any single important trait like intelligence, wealth or attractiveness will have fewer whether they are at the high or low end of the scale. You may argue that people that are at the high end of the scale can just pick anyone below them they want but it doesn’t usually work that way. That is why there is a lot of psychology in this question as well. Sure, lots of people will line up to marry a beautiful, wealthy woman but she knows she is getting the short end of the stick unless she marries a peer and the supply of those is much more limited. It takes two people to volunteer for a marriage. It also explains why somebody like European royal family members have the least number of potential marriage partners of anyone.
Sure, you can get sensible answers given some assumptions. But what answers you get depend to a huge degree on what assumptions you put in. This isn’t “how many piano tuners are there in Chicago”, this is “how many people are there who play the same musical instrument as me in the town where I was born”, when you don’t know either my instrument or my hometown.
Well, my ex-wife has so far met three and she isn’t 40 yet. I’m predicting Liz Taylor levels of marriage partners.
I agree completely and that is why I said it depends on the requirements and the person. This is only a more complex version of figuring out what used car you should buy. You may like a lot of cars that you see but most of them aren’t for sale. Some nice ones are out of your price range, some are the wrong color and some have unacceptable damage or require excessive maintenance.
You have to pick your strict requirements and your simply nice-to-haves against what you can trade equitably for and then look to see how many of those there are available. The answer going to be very different if you want a pristine Ferrari or simply a semi-dependable pickup truck.
If the average woman meets me when she first begins her quest, she stops looking.
Afterward, she joins a convent.