As opposed to all those times we have incumbent presidents with more than one term to go?
I’m sure the Republicans will cheat their asses off, maybe even enough to win. But if the polls are to be believed, it’s Biden’s race to lose. Still, I see this moronic post on Facebook: “Biden is NOT leading in any polls. But the polls all SAY he is, so that the people accept the theft in November!” Really hard to argue with that kind of logic.
No, as opposed to a president at the end of their second term, IOW a lame duck. :rolleyes:
I didn’t think it was possible for Trump to win the first time, and couldn’t fathom that 63 million people would vote for someone so incompetent and treasonous, so its hard to make predictions. A lot of people lost a lot of faith in america after 2016.
Having said that,Trump has many advantages in 2016 that he doesn’t have now.
[ul]
[li]Clinton would’ve been a 3rd term democrat, the public generally don’t want one party in the white house for 3 terms in a row. [/li]
[li]People hadn’t seen how inept Trump would be in office. A lot of people thought he would ‘mature’ while in office and act more presidential. [/li]
[li]Clinton was a very polarizing figure who motivated the right to show up and vote. [/li]
[li]Minority voters like black voters were probably more complacent in 2016 vs 2020.[/li]
[li]The economy is shit. People can say that has nothing to do with Trump, but it does. He should’ve been preparing for the virus in January and February, instead he ignored it and pretended it wasn’t happening and now we’re in an economic depression. Other nations with more competent leadership and better health care like Australia, new Zealand, Taiwan, etc. managed to keep the virus under control without collapsing their economy[/li][/ul]
All those things are changed now. But evenso, Trump won the election by losing the popular vote by 2%. So a poll saying Biden is ahead by X% isn’t meaningful since the electoral college benefits republicans and rural white voters.
There are polls showing that Trump is losing college educated whites of both genders, but also losing support among high school educated females (but not so much the males) due to his behavior. At the same time, I don’t know which voter group that leaned dem in 2016 is going to move to the right in 2020. Minorities and liberals (who make up the bulk of dem voters) aren’t going to suddenly support Trump in 2020.
But college educated whites (about 37% of voters) and high school educated white women (17% of voters) are both moving to the left by about ~15-20 net points vs 2016. They aren’t a lock, but for example high school educated whites preferred Trump by 27 points in 2016, they may only vote GOP by a 10 point margin in 2020. Supposedly college educated white women are preferring the democrats by a 20-25 point margin in 2020.
Biden doesn’t scare these voters the way someone like Clinton or Sanders would.
I think that Trump has made it clear that he is willing to break the law, including colluding with foreign governments, to win elections. He and his base have demonstrated a disregard for democratic norms and outcomes. Given that many GOP officials have spoken about the need to suppress black voting to win elections and that Trump history of using the military on American citizens, I think there is a very real chance that he will “win” the election.
I assume that when time comes to cast their vote, every single one of the ~63M Trump voters will double down.
I sincerely hope that voters will turn out overwhelmingly for the only candidate that stands a chance of defeating Trump across all the battle ground states.
Speaking only for myself - not that I have predicted Trump will win, but I certainly believe it is quite possible, maybe even likely - I’d call it something like “kicked puppy syndrome.”
Have you ever seen a dog adopted by kind people, but that animal was abused in its previous home? Such a dog will take a LONG time to trust, and may shy away, trembling, even from obvious goodness. That’s kind of how I feel about 2020 elections.
Conservatives may find it hard to understand just what a blow it was when Trump won. All jokes about “Trump derangement syndrome” aside, there was something terrifying and tragic about Trump’s win that was on a completely different level from the disappointment of wins by the Bushes and Reagan. I was in tears on Election Day 2016, because Trump is not a normal conservative whose policies might be disagreeable but more or less sane; rather I knew he was someone whose reign would cause irreparable harm - to the environment, to treasured democratic institutions, and to America’s standing in the world. Not to mention actual, avoidable deaths of Americans and other global citizens. And all that I feared, and grieved for, has come to pass.
So to go back to the kicked puppy analogy, it’s going to take a lot for the electoral process to earn my trust again. Mock the “bleeding heart liberal” if you like, but the pain is sincere and unselfish.
GOP win has slipped to 44% at Betfair.com. Here are the latest poll results from the key Rust Belt states:
Sunday, June 7
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12
Wednesday, June 3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Biden 46, Trump 50 Trump +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
“Trump +4” in Pennsylvania is sickening. I continue to (sincerely :smack: ) believe that the election will be close. Biden would have a fair chance to win if the GOP doesn’t cheat, but the GOP plans to make this election as crooked as it can.
I think the concern is that the standard rules of politics no longer apply so its hard to believe traditional predictions. This concern comes form three things.
First the loss in 2016. Everyone was so sure that Clinton would win. There was no way that there would be enough stupid and hateful people in America to elect someone so obviously unsuited to the presidency. But in the end they did.
Second is the perceived invulnerability of Trump to scandal and criticism. As I’ve said before, if Reagan was the teflon president, Trump was the mud monster president. Scandal doesn’t just slide off him, it actually sticks to him along with all of the other scandal but it just makes him stronger. Pointing out the obvious incompetence, corruption and lawlessness only makes his base support him all the more in the face of the media’s so called smear campaign. While we may defeat him in the end, having him shrug off shots that would have in the past put any previous politician in the ground brings up feelings of fear and hopelessness.
Finally is the concern that he and the GOP will cheat. It is clear that notions of fair play, fight the good fight, may the best man win, but be gracious in defeat, after all the foundations of our democratic system means more than any one election, no longer apply. In fact there is no longer a need to even play lip service to them. If the GOP was found taking Democratic mail in ballots and burning them on the whitehouse lawn, 40% of the nation would see it as a good thing, a proactive measure to protect us against Socialism.
Predictions are worthless, considering most thought Hillary would win… I think Biden brings less enthusiasm, and elections are determined by turnout, maybe swing voters. I thought Trump would win, and now I’d bet with my personal friends (none who will take me up) that he’ll win because of the protests (winning over undecided folks), similar to how Nixon won on “law and order”.
Either way, whoever wins, WE lose.
Kinda like, if I’m offered a choice between a very painful hangnail and having my arm chopped off, either way, I lose. :rolleyes:
Right now it’s Biden’s election to lose. If there is anyone who can lose an election it’s Joe Biden. There is a lot of time before now and November and a lot of things could happen.
You’re also correct that in most cases, a 10% lead looks like something to be excited about. You’re also correct that traditionally, the best turn-out strategy is to get people excited about jumping on a winning bandwagon (combined with dire warnings about the consequences of a loss).
But let’s remind ourselves of some factors in recent history that have changed some of this calculus:
Pennsylvania is worrisome indeed. If you subtract out the Pittsburgh district where Republicans didn’t run a candidate, Dems only ran up about a total victory margin of 275,000 votes (about five points) in the '18 congressional elections. It’s still too damn close to feel good about. Blue voters have to come out because red ones there certainly will.
I think the GOP’s existential desperation, which is nice phrasing, is more of a bigger picture concern for them. Their voters may not be data-based by nature but Republican leaders certainly understand the demographic decades-long shitstorm heading their way.
National poll results are meaningless because of the electoral college, so a 10% national lead would not reassure me at all.
Now, if there was abundant polling in all of the states that mattered most to the outcome (which there wasn’t in 2016), and those polls showed Biden with a 10% lead in those states on the eve of the election, then I would feel much more confident in a Biden victory. But we’re not at that point yet.
I believe Biden is a weak candidate who will (sadly) lose. I think my pessimism about his chances is well-founded. It’s based on three things:
2016 national polls were within margin of error. As stated above that did not mean anything. I don’t think Biden keeps a 10% lead especially after the conventions when Trump goes nuclear on him. If Biden wins 55-45 I think it would be very hard for Trump to win the EC.
If the democratic party had a charismatic leader with a strong well-understood platform, they would be a shoe in. Unfortunately, they have Joe Biden.
I’d be interested in hearing what the OP thinks of these responses. All of which, sadly, I agree with. 
They could do it with Biden. The key, as you say, is “well understood.”
For example, the Dems did a lousy job of selling the Affordable Care Act. Misconceptions about what it is continue to this day! People think it’s some kind of socialist, government health insurance, but in fact, it’s a law directing people to buy PRIVATE health insurance from PRIVATE insurance companies.
:smack:
How do you shout down Republican talking points like, “Hillary wanted to lock you up in a FEMA camp!”* or “The gummint is giving free money to people who are too lazy to work!” or “Criminals and rapists are pouring across our southern border!”
As a third-party voter, I do still think most of these responses are negative posturing - I am not criticizing these replies, but it just seems like posturing to me (I have the same but opposite response to Trumpers who claim that Trump will not just win, but beat Biden in a landslide in November - it is bravado and trying to psych oneself up.)
I say that as someone who is guilty of this behavior as a sports fan - usually trying to think negative so 1) I won’t be as disappointed if they lose and 2) also making the “yay! whew!” more relieving when it does happen. (In my defense, I am a Cowboys and Rangers fan.) 
Indeed, people used to dislike watching football with me because I said things like “I *know *the opposing team is just going to convert this third down against us, I just know” and then when they didn’t, people (rightfully) looked askew and annoyed at me.
I know gambling isn’t allowed here on the Dope, but if it were, I’d bet every dollar I have that on Election Night 2020, every Doper here who posted something pessimistic about Biden’s prospects is going to be going “Whew, yay, we won!”