According to Rasmussen, McCain and Obama are tied in Pennsylvania, (with Zogby saying McCain is ahead by 5 points), tied in Virginia (though Zogby sez McCain leads by 6 there; that’s seriously weird), and has McCain with 2-3 point leads in Ohio and Colorado. Zogby also reports McCain as seriously ahead in Florida. (I don’t want to bother linking for the rest; it should be navigatable from the first link. I apologize if this is bad form.)
How much of a shift do you expect in these states, and in what direction? What do Obama and McCain have to do to tilt things their way? What could and may happen out of their control that could make the difference?