The latter is vastly more likely than the former. I’d put it a larger than 50% chance Vance becomes president before the 2028 election due to Trump’s health. The chance of Trump being impeached is much much less.
Of course he’s also likely to inherit an economy in the toilet. Without all the “charm” (or what passed for it in magaland) that has made Trump pretty much immune.
On English composition principles, I’d eliminate the intensifiers (“much much”). Otherwise I agree.
The economy is almost as unpredictable as that greatest of secrets in any dictatorship, the strongman’s health.
Trump hurts the economy. But to say when and by how much the hurt hits – that’s impossible. Gritting my teeth, I have to admit that Trump’s crazy economic gyrations – ultra-high tariffs one week slashed the next – give him a tool to address depression threats unavailable to a normal U.S. president.
It may be that a 1929-style stock market or crypto collapse hits so quick and hard that there’s nothing Trump and Powell can do to fight it. Or – maybe those two near-enemies will manage it. Or maybe it will wait to hit the week after Gavin Newsom moves into the White House. Life is not fair.
As for Vance and charm, I agree with your putting “charm” in scare quotes, but for a different reason.. Some strongman types are drama queens or kings, like Donald Trump and former Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte. Some are calmer, like Xi Jinping and Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong. Vance takes a middle ground on this sort of drama. And that’s just what lots of voters want.
Another advantage Vance has is being a veteran.(scroll down to bio facts here). Sure, Americans will elect a lifelong civilian, but they’d rather a not-too-old soldier. Vance would have a substantial honeymoon to do whatever he wishes.
With Vance, it’s hard to tell just how much he actually buys into Trump’s schtick, versus how much he’s just trying to appear as the MAGAiest MAGA who ever MAGAed in order to curry favor with the boss and avoid slipping into political irrelevance, ala Mike Pence.
I can honestly see one of two things happening in a Vance administration: I can see him reigning in the crazier bullshit - no more on again, off again tariffs, no more pointless saber rattling at Canada and Greenland, no more stunts like trying to build a big ass triumphal arch - and governing more or less as a semi-normal Republican with the occasional sop to the MAGA crowd in the form of a big immigration raid or a Transphobic executive order.
On the other hand I can also see him rolling out his own form of weird wackiness and, as other people here have mentioned, installing Peter Thiel in a position of power. And Thiel, who, unlike Musk, isn’t strung out on ketamine and can keep his wilder impulses in check, is someone truly capable of instituting some scary antidemocratic shit.
One thing for certain is that Vance is absolutely craven for power. He’s a guy who in 2016, when most political observers thought that Hillary Clinton was going to crush Trump, called him an idiot and compared him to Hitler. When he realized that his prospects as a never-Trumper in conservative politics were extremely limited, he enthusiastically pledged his fealty to the Orange One. I have no doubt that he would literally throw his own mother under a bus if he thought it would smooth his path to power.
Completely agreed. He’s a windsock, but even more desperate for power than his fellow GOP windsocks like Lindsey Graham.
Exactly and the obvious route to power (or to keep the power he has as POTUS after Trump’s death or incapacity) is to try and inherit Trump’s mantel as MAGA’s unchallenged figurehead and idol.
He won’t necessarily succeed but will dedicate his every waking hour to trying. His every policy or utterance will be an attempt to be more Trump than Trump, to convince Maga he is the annointed successor
Change his name again?
And like Groucho Marx, if you don’t like them, he has others.
Does Vance actually think that, or does he just act like he thinks that to curry favor?
Think of what we’ve actually seen Vance do. Specifically, his massive pivot from “Hitler Trump” to “Messiah Trump”. The man will clearly do or say anything he has to, to please The Big Man. Before Trump, the BM was Thiel, so Vance fluffed him with abandon. But was he just doing then what we know he’s doing now, which is just ass-kissing his lips off in service of his own advancement on the coattails of the BM?
Once Vance has actual power in his own right, not dependent on the BM, which he would have as president, it’s all bets off as to what will actually come out of his own mind.
Trump is only JD’s Messiah now as a means to power. Thiel is still pulling the strings.
What does this mean specifically? I think he’d continue the racism, not because he necessarily believes in it, but because it’s the easiest way to get the underprivileged on his side.
But what else? Tariffs? Only where they support the American oligarchs. Insulting everyone? I can’t see him trying that. Media hatred? Nah, his goal will be to own the media, not make them the enemy.
He will treat whatever policies Trump is pushing the moment he pops his clogs (or loses the ability to speak, walk, etc.*) as if they were edicts enshrined in stone by God himself. So that he can sell himself as gods annointed one who is enacting the will of the glorious departed (or incapacitated) leader.
‘*’ - which would be much less convenient for Vance so look out for some George V style interventions in that case.
Compared to trump, JD will seem a little more rational and mature, and will do less of those little things that trump did solely to be an asshole. Like renaming forts, and gulfs, and tearing up the White House. And desecrating the Kennedy Center and violating Arlington. Those little things. His murders speak for themselves.
I really don’t think so unfortunately. The Maga faithful loves when Trump does those things. As Vance is going to be struggling to try and replace Trump as the object of their adoration, he will if anything do more of those things
Vance ain’t trump.
Nope but he wants to be. In the sense of being a unchallenged autocrat who the Maga faithful follow unfailingly whatever the cost. That is all he will care about if he becomes POTUS in Trump’s stead. Whether he succeeds or not he’s gonna try IMO
There will be no blind loyalty towards someone who doesn’t even know how to order a fucking donut.
Probably not no. But that won’t stop him trying.
Also I wouldn’t put too much faith in the discernment of the Maga faithful, they voted for Trump after all.