After casting my ballot, I am still undecided. I don’t have a good feeling about any candidate (although there was a local issue that I had an opinion on), but I do have the feeling that whoever wins will muddle through just as well as the next guy.
It’s true that most political leaders don’t achieve much, despite their well-meaning efforts. The economy tanks or there’s a natural disaster etc.
However it’s clear that Bush has been actively disastrous (Iraq war, Guantanamo Bay, War on Terror etc) and ruined the US reputation (torture + imprisonment wthout trial), so it’s important we don’t get another President like him.
By the standards of American presidential elections, it’s not close. The race is essentially decided, based on current statistics; only a very massive cheating effort, or Obama strangling a kitten on live TV, will change the outcome now.
538.com cites Obama’s lead in the popular vote as being approximately 5.6%, which in a Presidential election is a pretty reasonably good lead, and because of the distribution of votes it understates Obama’s dominant lead in likely electoral votes. It’s certainly not unusually close. Here are the splits for the last number of elections, in popular vote:
2004: GW Bush 2.4% over Kerry
2000: GW Bush -0.5% over Gore
1996: Clinton 8.5% over Dole
1992: Clinton 5.3% over Bush
1988: Bush 7.8% over Dukakis
1984: Reagan 18.2% over Mondale (!)
1980: Reagan 9.3% over Carter
1976: Carter 2.1% over Ford
1972: Nixon 23.2% over McGovern (!!!)
1968: Nixon 0.7% over Humphrey
Obama’s lead, if it holds, certainly isn’t a total ass-kicking like 1984 or 1972, but it’s a clear margin of victory by U.S. standards; five of the previous elections had closer votes. And in today’s polarized times I suspect it’s especially impressive.
Not necessarily. Regardless of the candidate’s specific positions and how they express them, most people seem to identify pretty strongly with one of the two major political parties philosophically and aren’t going to support the other party regardless of what the candidates might say.
It hasn’t been close for over a month. Obama is going to win in a landslide. I suspect at least 350 electoral votes for Obama. McCain has run an campaign so bad that it is stunning. His pick of Palin alienated most of the independent voters he needed and the economy has voted against Republicans very decisively.
Not according to the kids in this video. They waited in lines for hours to vote for Obama.
And thanks for your support! I know it couldn’t have been an easy decision, given that you are a Republican. I really respect your decision to vote for the best future for the country, and not just vote for the ®. You Rock!