It scares the shit out of me.
Research 2000, the outfit that did the search, is not known to be a pawn of Daily Kos. I think you’d have to show they used a dicey method or cherry-picked their sample to show that Republicans believe what people like Palin and Beck have to say.
From the article: “A non-partisan Research 2000 survey of 2,000 Republicans has found that a majority believe Sarah Palin is more qualified to be president than Barack Obama and that nearly two in three believe Mr. Obama is a socialist.”
Kos may be as partisan as you like, but that doesn’t imply anything about Research 2000. There’s another thread about this in GD. Their polling methods are discussed and they seem on the level.
It is not my responsibility to "prove’ it. But if you can’t use critical thinking to wonder about this:
then you’re a fucking idiot.
In short, though I am a blue dog democrat, I know bullshit when I see it. The “survey” has no basis in fact. By the scientific method, it’s not my responsibility that it doesn’t; it’s your responsibility that it does.
Fair enough, but I think the same general point still stands when pointing out that 90% of Republicans voted for her to be vice president.
You can find the poll and methodology here.
I’m not a statistician but that looks okay to me. It seems like they’ve used standard techniques, and we’ve got no reason to suspect they just made up the numbers from whole cloth. If you have any further doubts I suppose the only thing to do would be to either (a) agree to disagree or (b) contact Research2000 directly with specific questions.
I also remember thinking there was no way in hell that a Republican would win Ted Kennedy’s senate seat.
[quote=“Cort, post:26, topic:527585”]
I’m not a statistician/QUOTE]Lies, damn lies, and polls. Here’s one for the yellow dogs: [http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/01/18/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry6113291.shtml](another CBS poll)
I don’t know what a Blue Dog Democrat is, but I also know bullshit when I see it. And I’m looking at some right now. The survey’s fine. The only cherry-picking I see is that it was exclusively Republicans who were polled, and that was sort of the point of the survey, to find out what Republicans . . . believe? Think? Parrot! That’s it, the survey was conducted to discover how many Republicans *parrot *that garbage.
Well, you probably remember Highlander II
As an aside, I occasionally manage to eke a drop of mordant amusement from winding up Tea-Partiers on various right-wing forums. Based on my experience I have absolutely no trouble whatsoever believing that a majority of Republicans think Palin could do a better job of governing America than Obama. Among these people, and there are tens of millions of them, Obama hatred is a very powerful force. You can always tell who the moderates are on these forums because they only think Obama’s an ardant socialist who wants to turn America into 3rd world socialist dystopia. The rest think he’s a Marxist bone-in-the-nose witchdoctor with a bogus birth certificate who was sent from Kenya as a Manchurian candidate to allow the terrorists to destroy our freedoms. I know this hardly constitutes a scientific poll but if you’re in any doubt about the strength of these people’s feelings then you need to read around a bit more. You can start here. It’s quite a popular site and gets about 2000 unique hits a day. Then of course there’s Free Republic, Hannity’s forum, and tons of other places where you can watch the Tea Partiers forment and spin these little webs of conspiracy 24-7-365.
Conversely, to these people Sarah Palin represents everything that’s good and wholesome about America. You don’t need to crowbar your mind open very wide to accommodate the possibility that these people would prefer her as President.
But do you think polls are “true”? CBS also published this one.
And on review, if the posters in this thread don’t honestly know what “blue dog” or “yellow dog” means, then I have no desire to continue a political discussion. You idiots are chomping at the bit to make fun of Palin, when we could very well get blindsided by somebody else.
Your poll referenced a majority of Americans while the poll in the OP referenced a majority of Republicans. That could account for much of the disparity.
My point was most polls are bullshit, biased, and meaningless.
Or maybe Dewey really did defeat Truman.
There’s a difference? 
You don’t know what you’re talking about. At all. Not about scientific polling, not about polling companies, not about statistics. Your placement of scare quotes around the word “survey” is ignorant and self-discrediting.
Your CBS poll also appears to be legit and accurate. So what? It’s a poll of all Americans Vs. a poll of just Republicans. It should also be pointed out that asking if people think she’s more qualified than Obama is a seprate question from “do you think she should run for President,” and will not yield parallel results, even among Republicans.
Do I think Joe Lieberman is better qualified to be President than Sarah Palin? Of course. Do I want him to BE President? Fuck no.
Nate Silver over at 538 has enough trust in the poll to draw some conclusions from the poll. They aren’t the conclusions that this thread is focusing on, but he’s a guy who knows his polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/mcgop-virtues-and-vices-of-sameness.html
Yes, I’m a complete moron. I don’t understand that polls can have errors, that’s right. Still, a uniform sample with 2,000 respondents is going to be about as accurate as a poll can be. Methinks you missed the real point of my rant. whether the real percentage is 53% or 43%, the sheer magnitude of these stats is staggering.
You’ve obviously never studied a thing about scientific polling, but if you’re really convinced they’re such bullshit, then why do you think politicians (not to mention companies doing market research) spend so much money and time on them? And why are they so accurate at predicting results?
I think I know about it it a damn sight better than you. Answer a question:
Q: In regards to health care for children, a mother would know more than a politician.
1.) strongly agree
2.) agree
3.) no opinion
4.) disaggre
5.) strongly disagree
Surveys can be biased, don’t believe them.