Stunning or sad, either way we are doomed, doomed I say. I collected a few of my favorite poll results from the last year or so in one place just for grins. Did I miss any?
August 2010 poll of Americans:
What is Obama’s religion?
34% Christian
18% Muslim
2% Other
43% Don’t know
July 2010, Americans:
Was TARP enacted under Bush or Obama?
I am starting to really dread the upcoming election.
I try to take solace in the fact that my house is paid off, and I work for a company based in Amsterdam, so not strongly affected by U.S. politics. So whatever happens in the election, my day-to-day life is unlikely to be affected.
It’s a pity that the history of ginning up “literacy tests” as an excuse to keep blacks from voting has poisoned the well and made it impossible to consider imposing some sort of “anti-ignoramus test” for the franchise.
Wait a second. Have YOU ever taken a statistics class? Becaus I have, and one of the things they talk about in detail is how polls, if run properly, can be very accurate. With math and everything.
Because some people are ignorant? You do realize there have always been stupid and uninformed people, right? Why is it suddenly a big problem? However ignorant you think people are now, it used to be worse.
[ul]
[li]Ok, 18 percent of people incorrectly think he’s a Muslim. Then again, 34 percent of people got the question right, and a plurality of people don’t know - and I suspect most of those 43 percent don’t care what religion he is. If they cared enough to have a firm opinion they’d have said Christian or Muslim.[/li][li]The TARP thing, of course, is just wrong.[/li][li]The tax question is vague. Lowered or about the same could both be seen as correct, and a majority of people picked one of those two.[/li][li]The Medicare one is stupid. Anyone who says “the government should stay out of Medicare” is stupid, but I am also not sure why anyone asked the question this way. It is inherently misleading and begs for bad responses.[/li][li]North Carolinians may not be sure where Obama was born, but they voted for him anyway.[/li][li]It’s absurd that anyone doesn’t know Hawaii is a state, but with that in mind, I’m not that surprised 8 percent of people got it wrong.[/li][/ul]
I guess you’re saying that poll responses often don’t align with what people actually think or do, but it would help if you’d explain this. My grades in Intro to Statistics weren’t great, but I don’t remember hearing “polls don’t mean shit.” Maybe I slept through class that day.
I don’t doubt that, but one thing I’m not so sure of-- that ignoramuses of generations past were quite so motivated to get out the vote. This has been beaten to death, but the usual suspects have managed to manufacture (based partially on the above misguided beliefs) and harness impressive amounts of ignorant rage.
Is there historical precedent for that, or did the would-be dittoheads and beckbots used to just stay home with the sheep/wife on voting day?
It is encouraging that the ragers seem to be mostly old and unfit but it’s going to take a few more election cycles before we see the benefits of that kick in.
Voter turnout in U.S. elections isn’t usually very high compared to other countries. Here’s a chart showing the turnout among voting age people (as opposed to eligible voters) in federal elections over the years. As you can see, in recent years turnout in midterm elections is usually a little under 40 percent and turnout in presidential election years is usually a little above 50 percent. This doesn’t account for education levels or anything, but if you think stupid people are swamping the polls these days I have to wonder how you came to that conclusion.
Honestly this is the dumbest question of the bunch posted. “No” is not a very correct response. The best response I can think of would be “Medicare is a social insurance program administered the the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services”, and apparently that wasn’t an option. A simple “No” implies Medicare wasn’t created and almost entirely run by the government (except Medicare Advantage), which is obviously incorrect.
I think the intended question was “Should the government make any major changes to Medicare?” or “Should a health care reform bill include major changes to the Medicare program?” The wording is terrible and I wondered if the poll was a hit job by a Republican-linked firm. It turns out that Public Policy Polling is affiliated with the Democrats, so my theory is wrong, but I wonder if they deliberately worded the question that way to skew the results one way or just make people look stupid.
Yeah that question doesn’t make sense. But who would say “yes”? Maybe the number is skewed high because anyone with half a brain abstained. Unfortunately the pollsters don’t give us that info (fractional brain statistics or otherwise).
Hey, answered my own question-- McCarthyism went on for nearly 10 years and had wide popular support including citizen-organized “study groups” and political ads suggesting the other guy is a socia\h\h\h\h\h communist. So in say 8 years we’ll all have a good laugh about this whole episode.
I’m not going to read all of the OP’s links, because the first one I clicked on was 24 pages, but basically the first big problem with polls is that the methods often aren’t published. A surprising number of polls, if you pay attention, don’t even tell you the actual question they asked. They almost never tell you how participants were selected. They almost never tell you the context in which the questions are asked. There are discrepancies between what people think vs. how they act, how they want to be perceived vs. how they really feel, etc, and a lot of people just flat out lie to pollsters. Another of the biggest problems with polls that has popped up in the last few years is that they are often done by landline telephone, and younger people are increasingly going without landlines, skewing the sample older.
Those of you who said polls can be very accurate are right: they can be, but very often aren’t. And when they start asking dumbassed questions like “should government stay out of medicare?”, forget about it.
Check out this clip (warning: language). I realize it’s a comedy show, but pay attention to what the pollster says at 0:32: “the key in survey research is to . . . ask a question in a way that you get the right answer.”
Anecdote time
I was just talking to a scientist a few days ago about this very subject. He told me about a meta-study he had recently read about the way questions are asked in polls. It started off by saying that conservatives generally favor nuclear power. So if asked if nuclear power was good because it lowered carbon emissions, conservatives gave a resounding yes. A group of conservatives selected using the same methods, however, was asked if carbon emissions were harmful without being put into the context of nuclear power, and the answer was an emphatic NO. Pollsters know this and so they can get the answer they want just by the context they put the question in, without changing one word of the question.
So polls can mean something, but I am generally very skeptical of them.
I think the thing with the TARP question is that there are enough people who confuse it with the stimulus that it puts it over the edge, as it were. My guess is many of those respondents are simply thinking of the wrong thing.