Dude, it’s barely AUGUST and she’s barely been in the running! I’ll panic in October.
And of course, I just got the warning for posting in a thread I was banned from.
So of course, if I get banned from a thread, it makes it easier for the board to plie on since I can no longer defend myself.
Great job guys.
It’s three months away from what is being called the most important election in our lifetime, and you are just like “hey bro, it’s only AUGUST”.
You see the disconnect here and how this is only proving what I’ve been saying?
Either we are serious or we are not.
Yes, and poll numbers at this point traditionally mean squat.
Besides, IF you are right, what exactly are we to do with this kernel of truth?
How did you think posting in a thread that you knew you were banned from was going to go?
The margin of error for these miniscule samples is probably close to 20%.
So an MSNBC poll that says Harris’ support at only at 81% among black voters is not a good number and is just my weird interpretation?
I mean Ok, there is no real way I can respond to that.
Yes of course, MSNBC can’t be trusted now. You can say this to make yourself feel better on this board, but we all know an MSNBC cite would be one of your cites that you tout in any other topic or to refute any other poster.
Tiny crosstabs can’t be trusted for any single poll.
And FYI for the third time, that’s not an MSNBC poll.
What MSNBC poll? It was a CBS News/YouGov poll reported on MSNBC.
Why can’t you stop lying?
I’ve been asking this for a while now. Still no clue.
No, I’m fine accepting the MSNBC poll as proof Harris has 81% support among black voters. What the cite does not prove is your claim that any percentage of black voters will stay home or vote Trump because of his rhetoric that ‘immingrants are stealing their jobs’.
You keep making that claim and have yet to provide any cite that actually backs it up.
That was 8 months ago.
Only an idiot or a crank would reply to a mod in a thread that was not being posted to for 8 months.
The same Mod that banned him from the thread. You know 8 months ago. How are you blaming others for your idiocy.
Yes of course, now it’s not MSNBC. I think you all forget that I’ve been on this board for over nearly 15 years.
None of you would ever try to break down a MSNBC poll when it backed up your point and you know it.
“Well this is really a U-gov poll and the sample size is this or that we can’t take any meaning from this”
Fuck off clowns.
OK, I’m generally trying to play in the sandbox of very recent polls – preferably those (a) picked up by national poll aggregators like 538 and RealClear Polling, and (b) collected at least some responses after Trump’s appearance at the NABJ convention last Thursday.
Needless to say, this is a very tall order. There have been few major national polls completed and published since last Thursday. In fact, I can quickly rattle off the names of all of them – CBS News/YouGov, I&I/TIPP, Morning Consult, and SurveyUSA (LINK 1) (LINK 2).
So, okay, what’ve we got?
I&I/TIPP doesn’t provide cross-tabs by race. And Morning Consult’s cross-tabs (which would be valuable because their national sample is gigantic – over 11,000 respondents when sub-2,000 is typical) are pay-walled.
CBS/YouGov’s percentage of Black voters for Harris, we know - 81%. That’s sampling 360 Black voters out of an overall sample of 3,092 voters (just under 12%, in line with the percentage of Black voters in the general population). Unfortunately, they don’t split out Black men and Black women.
SurveyUSA does provide a cross-tab for Black voters broken down by men and women. Like YouGov, Black voters are about 12% of their overall sample of likely voters – about 180 Black likely voters total out of 1,510.
SurveyUSA sez!
Pro-Harris response share:
72% Blacks support Harris (~180 responses)
58% Black Men (~87-90 responses)
84% Black Women (~90-93 responses)
That’s it for recent major national surveys. But the aforementioned Howard University survey is still out there to evaluate. Some quick hits about the Howard poll:
- Taken right after Biden stepped down (July 22-24)
- Only Black voters were sampled.
- Very large sample of Black voters – 1,906 respondents from 39 states
- Women were slightly oversampled (53% vs 47% of the respondents being men). It’s common for women to outnumber men in polls, but it’s usually a touch closer – 51-49%, maybe 52-48%.
OK, so Howard’s results?
Pro-Harris response share:
93% Blacks support Harris (1,906 responses)
… but no breakouts for Black men and Black women. This was disappointing, because several of their poll questions were broke out men vs women – but not support for Kamala Harris. Maybe next time.
…
Now, the three polls from which we could squeeze data about Black voters aren’t completely like-to-like. The sample size varies from around 180 to over 1,900. The Howard poll is a week older than the other two. Still, some weak tendencies are supported.
The larger the polling sample, the better Harris does among Black voters. This is not surprising, because small samples are more volatile. As more small-sample surveys of Black voters come in, expect to see a spread in the percentages of Harris support – it likely won’t be all in the 70s and 80s. Additonally, future polls will better account for the notoriety of Trump’s NABJ statements – few respondents in the surveys covered in this thread knew about those statements (a matter of timing).
Additionally, Harris is crushing it with Black women. Regrettably, some level of support among Black men seems well and truly lost. But let’s see if things change over the next month or so in the polling – Harris’ candidacy itself is still in the novel stage and the resulting fallout in the polls is even now not yet fully baked in.
Can you respond to my question? How does the poll prove your claim?
Not so. I want to see what other pollsters had for the same question (Percentage of Black respondents supporting Harris). Wanting to see more polls is not calling YouGov’s numbers into question. One poll is never going to be the total picture.
Oh, here is the voice of authority. So, it’s ok for other posters to quote me out of context from years ago knowing I probably won’t respond?
When I do the same to you, from a thread that is still relevant 8 months later, with a cite, I’m the idiot crank.
Your bias couldn’t be any more plain.
This specifically is a reason I am hoping Howard conducts more frequent polling – to get access to large samples of Black voters. Or else for Morning Consult’s cross-tabs to become public. Going by the 12% rule of thumb for calculating Black voters out of the general population, Morning Consult normally has about 1,000-1,500 Black respondents – and they poll weekly.
I get that, but my MSNBC cite would normally be taken for what it’s worth. The board is now trying to bend over backwards to dismiss a poll that they would normally accept without question from any other poster.
I should at least be granted an ok, I see a point this guy was trying to make, even if I don’t like him.
He cited a reputable news source backing up what he’s been saying.