I just want to know what we’re supposed to DO with these pearls of wisdom and insight that we’ve been handed … or force fed…
You’re weird.
It is not relevant as President Biden is not even running.
You asked for a warning or suspension by posting to a thread you were banned from. This was all you. Stop blaming others for your strange behavior.
Umm shit for brains? You are the one that’s saying we must believe this poll because of where it’s from. That isn’t what other posters do.
Well I’ve already explained what Biden, and it still applies to Harris now, needs to do, an anti-hate bill for Black Americans bill would boost her numbers.
She is seen as a cop so explaining what Trump wants and coming out hard against any kind of qualified immunity for police will help.
These are just examples; she is going to have to come out hard against some people that back her and it will get her out of her comfort zone.
Details or this suggestion is meaningless.
Any kind??? Yeah, that won’t be spun to scare the ‘’‘undecideds’‘’!
I of course call bullshit on this. I know you like to think this is the way the board is now, but it’s not. One poster is waiting for a Howard poll, which no one knows.
Regular people, especially regular Black Americans are not responding to a Howard University poll for reasons that I’ve explained.
Clearly, I missed that. What were those reasons again?
I didn’t ask what the candidate is supposed to do, I asked what we are supposed to do with it or about it. I have no influence over Harris.
Silly Crow! There are no real Blacks at Howard University and the lyrics of this song prove it!
Oh,I think I see what part of my points you are missing.
The election will not be decided by white undecided in the suburbs, both sides have a good idea of their numbers there.
It’s going to be determined by the black vote in the swing states and Harris cannot win polling at 81% of the overall black vote.
It’s not a general sample of the black community. MSNBC is.
You haven’t seen the methodology of this hypothetical poll so,
How. Can. You. Know. That?
I think he thinks all the respondents are Howard students.
I’d say it generally has been taken for what it’s worth. The point made about sample size is legitimate because margin of error increases as sample size decreases. For a general national poll of ~3,000, margin of error is about 2.1 - 2.25 percentage points.
When you take cross-tabs of that 3,000 and shrink the sample size, you introduce larger margins of error. Make it women only, something like 1,530 respondents? We’re around 2.75-3.0%. Make it Black voters only, a cohort less than a quarter the size of the female cohort? Our margin of error increases logarithmically, and is now more like 8-10 percentage points.
The larger margins of error are important because we can’t really count completely on that 81% number. I mean, it could be right. It’s in the range of confidence, for sure. The trouble is that any number within the margin of error – up or down – is just as right. YouGov’s 81% gets shown on MSNBC’s nice on-screen graphic and looks like a locked-in firm number. But it’s no more right and no more wrong than 86% or 75% or 83% or 79%, etc. The poll’s sample of Black voters can’t get us to that level of precision.
And this is not picking on your cite. This goes for any poll and especially for crosstabs within a poll if the original sample is not all that large (1,000 - 2,000 or so). I guess that’s why Morning Consult can charge the public for their poll results – they start with 10,000+ with a margin of error of 1.0. They can present many cross-tabs with well over 1,000 respondents and keep the margin of error manageable. That information is a lot more focused and valuable than smaller-sample sources.
Not that smaller samples are totally useless to look at. Especially when you can group several together. It’s just that you have to know what you’re getting. And you have to know when a news source is grabbing a number off a shelf to make good copy, and not explaining the math of polling to their audience.
I don’t know, I’m just explain to people that don’t understand what is happening. For people that are saying why would black people vote against their own interests.
I’m trying to explain a mindset. I have no real solution for that and why would I?
Because you won’t shut up about it?
Hmmm?
I will apologize to you; you make sense, and I get what you are saying. I’m a bit on defense here in the pit so I hope you can take some of what I’ve said as a reaction to that.
And your explanation so far is;
Blacks are racists.
Pure-blood Blacks hate Half-blood Blacks.
Blacks are misogynists.
Blacks are so stupid they’d silt their own throats to spite their heads.
I can’t shut up no, not when my points are being proven to be correct. I’m not weird or a racist. It’s not me.
I defended Treyvon on this board from the start and stepped back from my negative views on BLM.
I’m being trashed on this board for saying things that people are asking questions about now.
I’ve explained what could happen and was banned from every thread as the board changed.
So yes, now I’m going to say I was right on some things.