I Want to be the First on Record to Call the 2012 Presidential Race

[ElvisL1ves]

No house cut here, remember?

[Bryan_Ekers]

@Rand_Rover

How about we discuss this in the other thread?

In the interest of redundancy, I’ll say in both threads that what you offer is a sucker bet, and I’ll throw in speculation it’s for ego-boosting purposes, i.e. “look at you scaredy-cat liberals! Won’t even bet that Obama will win in 2012!”
At 15:1, with an automatic win for you if he dies in office, any honest person wouldn’t be surprised at all.

[Frank]

@Chronos

3: The Republicans come to the conclusion that they probably won’t be able to win no matter who they run, and decide to use this as an opportunity to propel someone with low name recognition onto the national scene, in preparation for 2016. This will probably be a current governor (not Sanford, Jindal, Palin, or Pawlenty). This dark horse gets more votes than Huckabee or Paul would, but less than Romney would have, and wins 2012 only in a longshot scenario involving a major scandal or poorly-responded-to disaster on the scale of 9-11, but might (or might not, my crystal ball is blurry) do better in the 2016 rematch.

Given the changes is U.S. politics in the last few decades, I’d be willing to bet that we will never again see a major party renominate a candidate for President who has already lost once, for example Nixon, Stevenson, and so on.

[DSeid]

Bet terms made in other thread. Link here for documentation that he’s basically tied with the generic candidate as of now so anyone who thinks he is floundering and going to continue to flounder should jump at the odds I’ve suggested.

But also of note is more recent polling on Jindal. Remember Simplico’s statement about Jindal that

I doubt he’s a front runner now, but I bet he’s doing better then 3%

Well he isn’t at 3%. That’s true.

Bobby Jindal: 1%

[Bryan_Ekers]

@Frank

Given the changes is U.S. politics in the last few decades, I’d be willing to bet that we will never again see a major party renominate a candidate for President who has already lost once, for example Nixon, Stevenson, and so on.

Oh, I dunno… if the candidate lost a squeaker, I can imagine a return. A great many people seemed to be encouraging Al Gore for '04 or even '08.

[Happy_Fun_Ball]

@Bricker

Nope, not until we see who the GOP puts up. Hell, I just said above that Obama wins over two of the more oft-mentioned OP 2012ers.

Lets talk in January / February 2012. Fair enough?

I am not even going to touch Rand Rover’s thread; 15:1 odds is just crazy. I believe the odds at this point are about 1:1 but will drop as soon as a candidate emerges. The odds for the Republican Party will never drop to 15:1 against though, that is unless Sarah Palin is the candidate.

Intrade has the Democratic Party trading around $58 and the Republican party trading around $40 for the 2012 election at this point. I think these odds are about correct…

[Frank]

@Bryan_Ekers

Oh, I dunno… if the candidate lost a squeaker, I can imagine a return. A great many people seemed to be encouraging Al Gore for '04 or even '08.

I would certainly have supported Gore if he had run in 2004; I don’t think he would have got the nomination. (I seem to be into alternate history today. )

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@Wesley_Clark

How is Bobby Jindal going to win the primary in 2012? The GOP is becoming more and more radical. I don’t know ‘tons’ about Jindal, but as someone else posted earlier in polls he doesn’t do too well with the GOP base.

So he’d never even win the primary.

He’s pretty conservative-little bit less than Sarah Palin perhaps but still would be popular with the base.

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@Chronos

2: The party base decides that ideological purity (however that’s defined) is more important than sanity, and pushes either Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul through the primary. Once they’re under the microscope for the entire country, moderates realize en masse just how crazy their ideas are, and we see a landslide victory for Obama. Palin is a similar scenario, except the moderates already know she’s an idiot, and I don’t think she’s realistically going to make it through the primary.

Ron Paul is not popular with the base. He’s too Libertarian. In 2016 anyways the Republicans might have David Petreaus!

[boytyperanma]

@Curtis LeMay

Ron Paul is not popular with the base. He’s too Libertarian. In 2016 anyways the Republicans might have David Petreaus!

I think the chances of David Petreaus running are pretty slim

@David Petreaus

I thought I’d said ‘no’ about as many ways as I could. I really do mean no. I’ve tried quoting a country song ‘What part of ‘no’ don’t you understand?’ but I really do mean that…I will not ever run for political office, I can assure you

I guess he could change his mind…

[Chronos]

Ron Paul is not popular with the base. He’s too Libertarian.

Really? He seems to poll well enough.

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@Chronos

Really? He seems to poll well enough.

And so was Dean and Giuliani.

[Aji_de_Gallina]

@Diogenes_the_Cynic

Remember, Ronald Reagan’s approval ratings were in the 30’s a year before he demolished Mondale for reelection.

I was only 14 at the time, but I remember Reagan got a lot of help in demolishing Mondale by a guy called Walter.

@Diogenes_the_Cynic

I think the GOP nom in 2012 will probably be Romney. Palin is ultimately just too divisive and crazy (not to mention stupid). I don’t even think she’ll run at the end of the day, She won’t want to do the interviews, and I think her ego won’t let her run if she knows she would have a high probability of losing the nomination, and obviously she would have no chance at all in the general.

I think Romney will have to try to choose somebody who can appease the wingnut, but it was also have to b somebody who has some kind of baseline, non-nutjob credibility with moderates and centrists – preferably somebody who can deliver a swing state. Pawlenty is too boring and can’t deliver his own state. My prediction is that Romney will choose Jeb Bush.

A Romney/Bush ticket could win with a bit of “luck” (crappy economy). Even if they don’t it could set Jeb for '16.

[joebuck20]

@Aji_de_Gallina

I was only 14 at the time, but I remember Reagan got a lot of help in demolishing Mondale by a guy called Walter.

A Romney/Bush ticket could win with a bit of “luck” (crappy economy). Even if they don’t it could set Jeb for '16.

I think the Bush name has become too damaged for him to be a viable candidate in the near future. That’s not to say that another Bush won’t someday win national office, but it won’t be the brother of G.W., especially with other Republicans trying to put as much distance between themselves and the last administration as possible.

[Aji_de_Gallina]

@joebuck20

I think the Bush name has become too damaged for him to be a viable candidate in the near future. That’s not to say that another Bush won’t someday win national office, but it won’t be the brother of G.W., especially with other Republicans trying to put as much distance between themselves and the last administration as possible.

Maybe, but in Peru we have the saying “There are no political cadavers” (the Bush surname).
Jeb MIGHT pull it.

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

I really think most voters, even liberals, understand the difference between W and Jeb. I honestly dopn’t think W’s legacy has hurt his brother very much.

GWB and Jeb always reminded me of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton in that both had embarrassing brothers, only in the Bush case, it was like the embarrassing brother was the one that accidentally got elected instead of the smart one.

[RTFirefly]

Obama will be re-elected.

The more interesting question, as this thread evidences, is who the GOP will nominate.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

@hansel

…And in 2012, Obama will likely have a hell of a record to run on. He got HCR, and he’s going to get Wall Street Reform. An immigration package is plausible if not likely. DADT will be dead by 2012–all the military testimony that it’s time has passed is laying the groundwork for a post-2010 election repeal that Republicans can’t argue against. And appearances to the contrary, the 2009/2010 Congresses have been remarkably productive, apparently. By 2012, Obama will have a laundry list of accomplishments to describe. If the economy isn’t freshly in the shitter, he’ll be comfortably re-elected.

I’m crossing my fingers, and I hope you’re right. I suspect the GOP will nominate Romney or Huckabee; if Palin runs she’ll get pounded. Obama may tactfully drop Biden from the ticket and pick someone more appealing and less goofy (Tim Kaine? Kathleen Sebelius? Janet Napolitano?) if the race is looking tight by midsummer, but otherwise I expect it’ll be Obama’s to lose. Two years is an eternity in politics, though. Anything could happen between now and November 2012, and probably will.

I agree with Frank that a candidate, having won his party’s nomination but then lost the election, is very, very unlikely to get another chance. This isn’t 1952-56, when Stevenson could win the Dem nomination twice. In the 24-hour news environment nowadays, we see much more of our candidates, and are pretty tired of them by the time they lose. Far more often than not, people look for a fresh face the next time around.

[Chronos]

Obama may tactfully drop Biden from the ticket and pick someone more appealing and less goofy (Tim Kaine? Kathleen Sebelius? Janet Napolitano?) if the race is looking tight by midsummer, but otherwise I expect it’ll be Obama’s to lose.

Won’t happen. It’d look like a desperation move, and even if it is actually a desperation move, the absolute last thing any politician wants is to look desperate.

[DSeid]

@Chronos

Won’t happen. It’d look like a desperation move, and even if it is actually a desperation move, the absolute last thing any politician wants is to look desperate.

Of course VP have “decided” that they do not want to serve another term, and as he’ll be 70 at the time of the next election, and as he has no realistic ambition of using the office as a launching pad for his own run next time, he may very well do that … or be told to do that. HR Clinton OTOH will be a spry 65 at the next election and a woman at 69 is still not too old (IMHO). She was the second best choice last time. And would be a fine candidate next time round, especially if Obama gave her plenty of air time during that term.