If Texas seceded, how far up shit creek would they be?

[silenus]

Secession would be shooting themselves in the face!

If there weren’t so many decent people in Texas, I’d kick the state out. Their leadership is criminal and in Paxton and Abbot’s cases literally.

[ParallelLines]

Just thought I’d mention, but we’ve done this thread, and (relatively '22) recently!

So I’ll copy/paste most of my take from that thread:

@ParallelLines

So, and as pointed out by @The_Librarian - the closest recent example of such a thing would probably be Brexit, and I think it’s a reasonably close analogy.

The Texan state would initially kind of lumber on, with inertia taking care of a lot of things, but all of a sudden would be subject to border restrictions, import/export laws, visa requirements, and the like. Larger, national corporations currently headquartered in Texas would have to consider if all the perks that Texas, notoriously business friendly, offers is now offset by all the new issues above, and I suspect a number would find it not worth the effort.

So, while oil refining and production will provide a source of income, I believe the economy would sustain an overall loss, which would increase dissatisfaction within the new state. Which would mean that the New Texas Republic (NTR from now on, -snicker-) would have to increase it’s support, probably by further doubling down on it’s base as it has before. So, the next step would be things like requiring all government and business do English only (long a dream of White Nationalists across the Southwest) or other, similar measures to cater to their own.

Which would further alienate any remaining moderates in the NTR, further restrict the economy, but would likely prove to their people that “things are getting done”. Meanwhile, Texas will go further down the Putin road - the corruption of the likes of Paxton, already legendary, will be fully protected, the remaining wealth will be concentrated in the hands of the few oligarchs, but they’ll be able to keep their base focused on how ‘Old America’, ‘those people’, and their own ‘fifth column’ are keeping the bright future they promised away, but soon (two weeks!) everything will start to turn around!

So the same things that are happening right now in Texas, but with the speed turned up to about 10x.

[Broomstick]

@DPRK

@InternetLegend

Texas is the proud home to 15 active duty military installations

Well, yes. Am I missing something— why would the federal govt ever allow Texas to secede? You never, ever give up territory, even a barren rock, much less one full of useful military installations etc.

So if they seceded the US military would pull out of those “installations”.

[silenus]

Leaning into the hypothetical…

Fort Cavazos would be the new Sumter…

[Loach]

@Broomstick

@DPRK

@InternetLegend

Texas is the proud home to 15 active duty military installations

Well, yes. Am I missing something— why would the federal govt ever allow Texas to secede? You never, ever give up territory, even a barren rock, much less one full of useful military installations etc.

So if they seceded the US military would pull out of those “installations”.

Who is the military? If you followed as many military pages as I do you wouldn’t be as dismissive. Any military action even non-violent will tear the military apart.

All or most Republican held states and the entire party backs Texas. Sure it’s a lot of politics in an election year. That still doesn’t mean Washington making it a bigger confrontation won’t blow up in all of our faces.

[InternetLegend]

If Texas was no longer a part of the US, those bases would have to be closed or there would have to be diplomatic agreements allowing the US to maintain a military presence there. Given the likely state of hostility between the new country and the existing one (based on what happened the last time someone tried seceding, I can’t imagine relations would be friendly), it wouldn’t be a good idea to maintain bases inside that hostile country.

I’m also assuming that the interstate water compact between Texas and New Mexico would become unenforceable and a new, international, one would have to be agreed to. This all starts sounding like a real windfall for New Mexico (and I’ll bet El Paso would immediately start clamoring to rejoin the US)!

[Loach]

@InternetLegend

If Texas was no longer a part of the US, those bases would have to be closed or there would have to be diplomatic agreements allowing the US to maintain a military presence there.

Ok the people who were now in control can just say no.

Using the military as a pawn in this will not go well for anyone. The military is not a robot you can program. It is home to a lot of southern conservatives. The officer ranks tend to be more conservative than enlisted.

[Horatius]

@InternetLegend

Given the likely state of hostility between the new country and the existing one (based on what happened the last time someone tried seceding, I can’t imagine relations would be friendly)

Of course, this is the fundamental problem with all these discussions. Americans can’t imagine a case in which they’d negotiate a peaceful exit from the US, and so every scenario is tinged with anger and fear.

Meanwhile, other places have negotiated just such divisions, without too much rancor. See Czech Republic vs. Slovakia, for one, and others have discussed it, See Canada vs Quebec for another.

Any such secession would have to have a supermajority of support in Texas to even get off the ground. If they asked to negotiate a separation, would the Rest of America really decide to fight a war over that? This isn’t 1860 anymore, where war is mostly confined to neat little battlefields, and everyone was a hard-core badass who didn’t give a shit if someone got a black eye and a broken nose. Even a small dose of the modern US military would produce devastation in Texas unlike anything the US civilian population has ever seen up close. Imagine Gaza, but it’s Houston and Austin that are left in ruins.

Would people really want that, just to keep Texas, if most Texans want to leave?

[InternetLegend]

If the military is on the side of a seceding state, then there’s a bigger problem. I wouldn’t put a lot of money on those conservative generals being willing to support an armed insurrection, but if they did, they’d need to do it with no new federal money.

[Czarcasm]

@Horatius

Americans can’t imagine a case in which they’d negotiate a peaceful exit from the US, and so every scenario is tinged with anger and fear.

You seem to be laying most of this on the rest of America, when the anger and fear, for the most part, is coming from Texas and it’s supporters.

[kitap]

I wonder what would happen to the Native American reservations; there are three.

[Czarcasm]

They would be “welcome” to join the Republic of Texas, or be deported.

[DPRK]

@Loach

All or most Republican held states and the entire party backs Texas.

Given such solidarity, and the hypothesis in this thread that Texas secede, I suppose they are all seceding as well and possibly forming a new Confederacy?

[Loach]

@InternetLegend

If the military is on the side of a seceding state, then there’s a bigger problem. I wouldn’t put a lot of money on those conservative generals being willing to support an armed insurrection, but if they did, they’d need to do it with no new federal money.

@DPRK

@Loach

All or most Republican held states and the entire party backs Texas.

Given such solidarity, and the hypothesis in this thread that Texas secede, I suppose they are all seceding as well and possibly forming a new Confederacy?

I’m not making predictions. I don’t know. What I do know is it’s not as clean as some people seem to think. Pulling out of the largest Army base in the country along with other installations is a hard task regardless of the circumstances. Doing it with half of your personnel against it makes it nearly impossible. That’s before you even start talking about using the military. If you try to use the military in a political fight the country will lose bigly

[Czarcasm]

@Loach

Doing it with half of your personnel against it makes it nearly impossible.

Do you really believe it would be that high? How many of them assigned to Texas bases are actually from Texas?

[Horatius]

@Czarcasm

You seem to be laying most of this on the rest of America, when the anger and fear, for the most part, is coming from Texas and it’s supporters.

Not at all. Note that Texas isn’t trying to discuss this rationally, either, they’re just going, “Let’s go Brandon!” and doubling down on their oppositional tactics.

[Akaj]

It’ll never happen. What would all those red-blooded patriots do with all their American flags and flag-themed gear? And are they gonna start booing when they hear “The Star Spangled Banner” or “God Bless the USA”?

[Loach]

@Czarcasm

@Loach

Doing it with half of your personnel against it makes it nearly impossible.

Do you really believe it would be that high? How many of them assigned to Texas bases are actually from Texas?

I don’t know if there is a way to know that but Texas has about 200,000 in the military as a whole.

If you make a correlation between Trump support and supporting Texas in this, from polls I’ve seen about 40% support Trump. It was about the same for Biden. That leaves about 20% other. Republican support in the military is lower than the past but it’s still high. It’s certainly a high enough number to tear the military apart.

[Loach]

@Akaj

It’ll never happen. What would all those red-blooded patriots do with all their American flags and flag-themed gear? And are they gonna start booing when they hear “The Star Spangled Banner” or “God Bless the USA”?

Ever been to Texas? They love their flag.

[Czarcasm]

@Loach

I don’t know if there is a way to know that but Texas has about 200,000 in the military as a whole.

But how many of them are actually stationed in Texas? I don’t really think there will be that much of a problem with U.S. military troops on bases based in Texas if they are ordered to withdraw.