If Trump dies unexpectedly before he can preemptively pardon his entire administration and family at the end of his term who are the most likely to flee the country?

Politics & Elections
1

I’m not really trying to debate whether or not he will actually live thru the end of his term. Assume that he dies of a heart attack while on the shitter cranking out king memes. How much of this administration will be vulnerable prosecution for serious criminal acts committed out of fealty while he was in office? I can’t imagine Vance would start off by pardoning all of the Trump -sycophants when he’s gone and Truth Social closes up shop so I think there will be an exodus of the worst offenders. Who’s most vulnerable? Hegseth? I’d imagine anyone who lied under oath will be easy targets. Will there be mass panic in Washington?

2

His two eldest boys will be long gone…

3

There will be mass sucking up to President Vance. The secret service will have to use batons to keep away the mass of GOP luminaries attempting to kiss his buttocks to get a pardon. Vance will love every minute of it, and will probably give some out.

4

All of them. As I mentioned in the thread on the subject the bar for prosecution is now “used private email to avoid FOIA and accept a bottle of wine from a private contractor for doing their job”. There is not Trump appointee when hasn’t done at least that.

5

I think he probably won’t pardon any of them. He knows they were all selected based on their loyalty to Trump, not Vance, and he won’t forget that. The one thing I know for sure about Vance is, he’ll do whatever he has to to advance his career and accumulate power. He’ll turf the whole lot of them and bring in his own people who he knows will be beholden only to Vance. Their imminent prosecutions will be just the right excuse for firing them all.

6

Actually, his death would preclude any impeachment, so many of their misdeeds would just be written off as we move on. Also, if Trump croaks, Vance could pardon them since he would then be the new president.

7

Personally, I’d love to see Congress realize that without Trump there’s not really a MAGA movement, and fall all over themselves to reassert their own power by prosecuting all involved, and keeping Vance on a really short leash.

I figure reality would be somewhere between the “nothing happens” and what I’d hope though.

8

If Trump dies unexpectedly before he can preemptively pardon his entire administration and family at the end of his term who are the most likely to flee the country?

All of them, Katie. :smiley:

9

We obviously can’t be sure one way or the other until he’s gone. But many people have come to the opposite conclusion.

10

None of them.

  1. Vance could just pardon people.
  2. They don’t believe the Democrats have it in them to pursue the crimes in the fashion that’s needed. Looking at the coup attempt and it seems like a reasonable stance. Not sure it’s the right one as things have changed, but it’s reasonable.
  3. Where would they flee? Governments that would stick their neck out and have the power to resist US coercion to extradite are few and far between. Russia? China? Saudi?
11

I’d say he’ll pardon some of them, at the very least the ones who could give evidence on him if they were threatened with prosecution

But yes he’ll absolutely get rid of all Trumps simpering fascist lackeys and replace them with his own simpering fascist lackeys

12

But what crimes has he done? He’s the VP, which is the traditional “Do nothing” job, and he’s a VP that Trump actually hates, because Vance was imposed on him by the money guys, so he’s even more side-lined.

Just being a useless ass kisser isn’t actually illegal.

13

This. They have decades of evidence behind the belief that the Democrats will not only refuse to prosecute them, but help cover up their misdeeds to “maintain the norms”. Maybe a miracle will occur and the Democrats will grow a spine but it’ll take a lot to convince a bunch of Republicans with a lifetime of experience otherwise that the Democrats will dare raise a hand to them.

14

I’m just looking at it through the historical lens of personality cults. How many of those survived the death of the personality?

I’m not claiming that all the MAGA people are somehow going to dry up and blow away, but rather that their organized movement is likely to lose focus and likely end up with someone leading it who’s not JD Vance. And more importantly, even though the movement may survive, it’s unlikely to remain a personality cult. It’ll probably end up just another faction within the Republican Party, and not this weird, personality driven thing that Trump has created and fostered.

And as a result, Vance or whoever succeeds Trump is going to have something of an uphill fight. The other GOP legislators aren’t going to bend the knee to this person without that personality cult scaring them, and there are IMO, a pretty fair number who are currently cowardly and cynical, but who don’t actually like all this Trumpist flouting of laws and the associated stuff like that, but who have enough spine to stand up to Vance in the absence of the MAGA personality cult.

I actually think the bigger danger is that if they gain power, the Democrats are likely to approach this as an aberration and with charity, rather than an existential threat for the nation that needs rooting out with fire.

15

I’d argue that it’s only partly personality-driven. Before Trump, there was plenty of racism in the GOP, but they felt restrained about expressing it: remember “dog-whistles”? And misogyny seemed to be largely a thing of the religious right.

What Trump did was shatter that restraint. He made it not just okay, but great, to be blatantly racist and misogynist. None of that is going back in the box. That’s the core of the GOP now, and it’s hard to see anyone winning GOP nominations for high office while soft-pedaling that: they’ll get beaten by the loud-and-proud contingent. You don’t need to be particularly charismatic to run against black people and women who don’t know their place.

So Trumpism will continue without Trump. The only way it’s not the future of the GOP is if it metastasizes into something even worse.

16

Wouldn’t pardoning someone be similar to giving them an immunity deal that would allow prosecutors to compel them to testify without being able to hide behind the fifth amendment.

17

All of this, but add “keep the corrupt riches flowing.” Donald has been successful NOT just because the plebes worship his personality—he’s been successful because he’s facilitated the transfer of wealth from taxpayers to those oligarchs willing to support his rule. (Something he was certainly advised to do by Putin.)

Vance won’t want to put any spokes in the wheels of corruption. He will issue pardons on the same basis that Donald has: to those willing to pay, either directly or via support (as with the Ellisons, promising and delivering propaganda praising the regime).

Vance won’t care that many of those figures held their positions during the past few years by performing obeisance to Trump. He knows not to take that personally—he knows it’s all about the money (and concomitant power).

I don’t think any of Trump’s minions will feel the need to flee the country if he dies before 11/2028. However long Vance occupies the throne before January 2029, there will be no need to flee. And after the election: if Vance is somehow sidelined (by infighting with Rubio et al) and Democrats actually gain the Presidency, the miscreants won’t fear. They will be confident that a Merrick Garland-like figure—one who will NOT go after the formerly-powerful—will be in charge.