If Trump is Charged and Arrested, and He Calls for Insurrection, What Do You Think Will Happen?

Decades past that point. The fact is, our institutions are collapsing. I think we’ll continue to see right wing terrorism like we’ve been seeing for years. In red state America, they’ll continue to use the levers of power to suppress black voters and curtail civil rights. A confederate curtain is going up between red and blue America. Trump’s America will continue to be a violent, undemocratic place.

This thread is no place for conspiracy theories, sir. Please stick to the facts, like how all the conservative voters will be given special pens that infect them with the “gay woke community organizer” Covid variant.

Yeah, I was thinking — it took, what, two dozen highly motivated al-Qaeda fighters, maybe three or four dozen if you include support and training staff, to commit a shocking terrorist act that changed the course of world history.

Twenty yee-haw-dists throwing themselves at the bulletproof facade of the J Edgar Hoover building aren’t going to accomplish anything except getting themselves killed, but a different set of twenty guys in just the right positions with just the right plan could do a phenomenal amount of damage.

The other issue, is that 911 was unexpected. Maga dorks potentially committing violence for trump, is expected. Therefore, there will not be any shock, or even surprise value.

There will be widespread unrest if Republican leaders do support the AG and Justice Department. Actual Republican Senators have been repeating the message to all their followers that this investigation is baseless and purely partisan, and that the FBI is corrupt (and also that we should abolish the IRS).

If they’re Democrats, yes. If they’re Republicans, they’re expected to circle the wagons and defend their tribe, no matter how damning the evidence against Trump or others on the right.

This right here is one reason there will be no organized violence. The process is too protracted.

Which, exactly, is the tipping point where outrage turns into violence? The indictment? The conviction? The first appeal, or the second? The day he finally goes to prison? Different MAGAts will have have different triggers, and eventually the outrage will be too diluted to amount to much. The GOP and Faux News will have long since moved on to their next hero.

For the purpose of this thread, the tipping point is when Trump takes to social media and explicitly calls for his followers to rise up in violent rebellion.

There won’t be anything for them to do, though. Not until Trump is sitting in a cell somewhere. Then we have to acknowledge the non-zero chance that the various militias organize to lay siege to whatever prison he’s in and “bust him out.” I put the odds of that at better than 20% but less than 50%.

Which may be this week given how he is acting on TS.

Fair enough. But my guess is that Trump will take to social media and explicitly call for violent rebellion at every one of these stages, and that because he’s effectively banned from most mainstream channels his calls will inspire nothing more than a few disorganized spurts of violence. And the effect of these calls for violence will also dilute over time.

It’s surreal there’s any question that Trump would be arrested. He had a chance to return everything and instead only gave back a few boxes. Then 2 of his attorneys wrote letters stating there were no more boxes.

The circumstances are so extreme that it’s hard to understand why he hasn’t already been charged.

They’re probably waiting until after the mid-term elections.

I think Trump is above the law. He shouldn’t be – but the law is what politicians make it, in the long term and in the short term. His wealth, his immense popularity amongst a large minor fraction of the citizenry, his whiteness, his connections, all these things will prevent him suffering any really serious consequences on the scale of losing his freedom. There could be some financial wrangling, but the likelihood of anything with teeth during his lifetime is low.

That said, I think if hypothetically he was charged and arrested and calls for insurrection, there would be violent uprisings trying to overthrow our government. They’d involve a small fraction of our population. But they’d still be very newsworthy. Just imagine, for example, 0.1% of Americans, 350,000 people, attempting violent overthrow.

If you’re right and the cops will overwhelmingly support fascists, then we’ve already lost.

But if I’m right, and the police will overwhelming oppose fascists, then we’ve gotten the fascists to identify themselves and be put away for a long time.

I don’t get the reluctance to make martyrs of fascists. You give violent rioters warning, you give them ample chances to surrender unharmed, and then you arrest them and charge them with felonies. If this makes them into martyrs, then so be it. If you give in to them because the other choice is to make them pose as martyrs, you made the worse course of two choices.

While I agree with you I want to point out Waco and Ruby Ridge remain rally points for a lot of the far-right. We should proceed where the law dictates but also acknowledge the risks. That said, we’ve got local law enforcement, state and national guard, which are all better trained and better armed than all of these two-bit cosplay “soldiers”.

Desperate losers will always have their losses to cling to–that’s just how it works. If you don’t go in, if you–what, wait them out for years?, then instead of martyrs they’ll be heroes and people will question if the reason you didnt arrest them was that they were right. If a decade or two passes with the Ruby Ridge nutjobs somehow holding out, then when you arrest them after they get tired and surrender peacefully, they’re now martyrs.

You don’t need to look much further than Trump to see how losers manufacture martyrdom and how their gullible followers swallow that shit eagerly.

As all already know, Lindsey Graham is already predicting riots in the streets if Trump is prosecuted. Lindsey: Stopping adding fuel to the fire!

“If they try to prosecute President Trump for mishandling classified information after Hillary Clinton set up a server in her basement, there literally will be riots in the street. I worry about our country,”

It’s the County Sheriffs that are elected by local, like minded people that is something to keep an eye on:

The central tenet of the Constitutional Sheriff movement posits the County Sheriff is the ultimate authority within the county’s borders and is therefore able to halt enforcement of any federal or state law or measure they deem unconstitutional.

Then there’s this group
"I believe that the biggest badge in the country is the county sheriff.

CSPOA claims this is because county sheriffs are the only elected law enforcement officers and therefore only accountable to their constituents, no higher government power. In a May 2020 interview posted to YouTube, Mack described this view, saying: “Let me make this real clear: The President of the United States cannot tell your sheriff what to do. I don’t care if its George Washington himself, they cannot tell us what to do.”

Yes, what this really means is that Lindsey Graham is promoting riots in the streets…

Yep. With his “whatabout Hillary’s basement server”, he is giving all the justification for why they should riot.

I don’t understand this. TFG was in power for 4 years with a (presumably) friendly AG, 2 of which was with a friendly congress to egg him on. Yet, no charges were pursued against this phantom Hilary email breach. [sarcasm] Could it possibly be that the case has no merit? [/sarcasm]