Given that there are posters here who love my analyses (seriously, guys, that’s really sweet :D), I figure I can update this every so often.
First off, I read up a bit on season 27 on Primetimer, and they were absolutely furious at the result. What happened was that the final had three good-to-great dancers and one relative klutz who also had a bit of an attitude problem but also had a rabid fanbase, and the klutz won. Now, we all know about the “shark jump”, the one terrible decision or unpreventable disaster (the death of an actor, for example) that spells the beginning of the end for a show. I don’t think reality TV has this concern, mainly because it can always find new contestants, new judges, new angles, and once it gets a few seasons under it belt and develops a following, it becomes nearly indestructible. “Nearly” does not mean “completely”, however, and even a red-hot reality show can only take so many hard shots. The season 27 finale was one, and now there are gripes about the new voting system, which looks like a complete mess and is drawing scathing criticism. I have no idea if the show’s going to be in trouble, but the signs are there and none of them look good. Bottom line, if you have anything to discuss about DWTS, may as well do it now while you can.
October 14 was Almighty Titanic Global Family Entertainment Mega-Juggernaut Which Happens To Own The Network Night, the customary once-a-season overproduced glitzfest which is even more happy-happy-everything-is-awesome than the usual show, and as such could bear to bring itself to do an awful, awful elimination of one of the contestants, sniff sniff. I continue to be mystified as to how one of the most basic mechanics or the whole genre, which has been absolutely ironclad since it Survivor enacted it in '00, continues to get treated as this great tragedy. As of right now, I have no idea if there will be a double elimination next week or if ABC is just going to make the season incredibly long in an increasingly Sisyphean bid to turn the ratings around.
In any case, we have the exact same group next week, so I figured I’d give it a whirl with my usual horrendously-inadequate-and-sure-to-be-wildly-off-the-mark observations (even more so since I watched the episode on mute, which I’m finding to be a disturbingly frequent necessity with reality TV) of each contestant’s chances of winning the coveted Glorified Internet Poll Trophy. (Note: No scores given because 1. Season 27 proved that they’re utterly irrelevant, and 2. The judges inflate everyone’s scores anyway. Tifa Lockhart’s shoulder pads, it’s practically at the level of rubberband AI now. Should I be concerned that there are now two reality shows that I’ve used the word “entropy” with?)
Sailor Brinkley-Cook: She definitely looks more at ease now and can get through a routine without any trouble, which means that everything depends on making the voters love her. She’s been riding a feel-good story, but that’s not going to last forever, and there’s even the risk of a backlash if the camera fixates on mama Christie too much. Also, maybe it’s just me, but do stunningly beautiful, glamorous women really get hammered in anything with a voting component? I don’t even know how many times it’s happened on American Idol. Definite contender for the final, but it’s going to be a shocker if she wins this.
Karamo: He reminds me of nothing less than an annoying co-worker who thinks that acting all cheerful and energetic and positive will hide his incompetence. Pretty sure what I saw was as good as he’ll ever get, and I can’t imagine a cable TV show audience having the massive voting clout needed to propel a mediocre contestant to victory…and even if they did, he’s not their hero (see below). He has a great attitude and looks like he’s having fun out there; I’ll enjoy his company for as long as he remains.
Kate Flannery: Classic “not bad, but not good either” also-ran. She can do the little things all right…the kicks, the bends, the head-shakes…but when anything requires actual physical ability, she struggles. She looked really awkward in that lift. Her chances all depend on how big “The Office” was, and given that I didn’t even know about it until that bizarre music video (You know the one! :))…eh. Not sure whether I should root for or against her; have the sinking feeling I’m going to get burned either way.
Sean Spicer: All right, let’s get one thing perfectly clear. Bristol Palin was lightning in a bottle. She was young, ambitious, energetic, and beautiful, and at the time her family connections made her a veritable princess within the GOP. Also (and this is something that I don’t think gets mentioned nearly enough), even though she wasn’t a very good dancer, she at least made things interesting. From a Gong Show knockoff to gorilla suits, you never knew what nuttiness you could expect from her next, and the voters just ate it up. Spicer has none of these advantages. He’s old, slow, stiff, and boring, and, most damningly, the man the Republicans have been slobbering all over the boots of for the past three years fired him. Unless his name is Ronald or George, the right wing doesn’t give a crap about has-beens. I mean, look at how quickly they dropped Bob Dole like a bad habit after the '96 election. And remember, it’s rock bottom plus two now. I’m sure that somewhere there’s a group of true degenerates who are willing to throw their whole support behind any Republican whatsoever to throw a gigantic middle finger to everyone on the planet who isn’t them and can do plenty of lunatic powervoting within a much more limited timeframe, and they’ve done a good job so far. But can they keep it up for the entire duration and overcome every other fanbase and what’s sure to be a lot of desperation spite votes against him? Bridge too far. He’s living on borrowed time; the cold justice of anuddah wun bi da dus will catch him soon enough.
Ally Brooke: It’s rare that I use the word “lithe” to describe anyone here, but she definitely fits the bill, and that’s going to give a big advantage as to stuff she can do the rest of the way. A definite lock for the finals IF there isn’t a backlash from her split with Fifth Harmony. If she has any sense, she’ll spend some time on Twitter making nice-nice with the group.
Lauren Alaina: Not quite sure what to make of her. Another contestant who has to use “humor” to substitute for limited physical skills. Country music fans are a closeknit bunch, but I don’t think they’re a fanatical monolithic bloc who’ll work their fingers to the bone to help someone win some dumb dance contest. Could sneak into the final, could flame out in two weeks, who knows.
Kel Mitchell: Well, he has stamina, I’ll give him that. My question is, can he do elegant, refined, stylish, coordinated? He seems to be doing his own thing for the most part, and that’s not going to cut it in crunch time. I’m thinking he outlasts Karamo and then quietly bows out soon afterward, unless family movies are just that huge.
Hannah Brown: If you’re a betting man (I’m not, of course), you should definitely like what you see here. Graceful, fluid, flexible, in complete control of her body. She’s from The Bachelorette, meaning she’ll get a huge push from the ABC faithful every week. On top of that, she has that down-home, girl-next-door, beautiful-but-not-TOO-beautiful vibe that’s going to pull in a lot of non-bloc voters; the casual viewers, the undecideds, the bandwagon jumpers. In a contest with no one obvious favorite, that’s going to make a big difference. Barring a disaster, a mortal lock for the final.
James Van Der Beek: Yow. Ever see a first-timer in any competition you care to name who’s not like the other rookies, he’s completely calm and totally focused, he walks with a confident swagger and a tiger’s eye glint, and that’s because he learned the game inside and out and knows not only what it’s supposed to take to win, but all the little biases and prejudices and BS and monkey wrenches and dirty tricks that don’t show up in any book and never get acknowledged by any authority but absolutely exist, and master of which is what’s actually required to win? That’s this guy. I’m not saying he isn’t a very good dancer (he is!), but what he’s done so far, and brilliantly, is master the shadow game. Shots of his happy family, schmoozing, laughing along with the dumb jokes, playing nice with the judges, calling out tot he fans but not to the point where it sounds like desperation. He is the man, and no one else is even close.
It’s coming down to Brown and Van Der Beek. Granted, there’s always the risk that one of their blocs will moronically assume that (S)he’s Safe This Week or just miss the voting window that one time, but even if that happens, remember that the judges have the option of booting the second-lowest contestant, and they absolutely will in this case. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a variation of a Sanchez Rebound here, where the bloc slacks off for a week, fears the worst, gets bailed out by the judges, and then proceeds to light the afterburners. The only possible dark horse contender I can see is Brooke, with MAYBE Brinkley-Cook or Mitchell playing spoiler. If either Brown or Van Der Beek goes out before the final for any reason, I’m pretty sure the other is going to run away with it.