A common refrain has been that “Trump getting elected really sucks, but the upside is that it has galvanized the political left, gotten the Democratic Party energized, and it has eroded the GOP and will lead to the GOP’s eventual downfall as the Party of Trump.”
In this thread you don’t have to state your political views but I am curious whether Dopers think that in the long run - say, looking back on now, in the year 2050 - Trump’s victory in 2016 will have led to more good things (directly/indirectly) than bad. Would it be conservatives or liberals, in 2050, who would go back in history if they could, and prevent Trump’s victory in 2016?
I don’t think either of those things you mention in the first paragraph are going to be a factor past the next election. Long term I think this will be a blip.
I think Trump has ripped up all the rules. And to the extent it allows his successor and his/her Congress to begin again it’s probably a long term good.
But Trump’s impact directly is negligible over time.
What is this you speak of? It has?
I think Trump represents setbacks on many fronts, some of them major. History will show he is on the side of wrong, and it will take a while to get back on track.
Trump will be gone, sooner or later. The tens of millions of people who thought this predictable clusterfuck might be a good idea will be with us for decades.
ETA: Trump is the symptom, not the problem.
And they continue to outbreed the rest of us.
Exactly correct. A fool will always find bigger fools to admire him.
Trump proved that you don’t have to be restrained or sane to win - you don’t even have to pretend to be restrained or sane to win. This isn’t something the amoral will forget.
How casually so many people will talk about sacrificing other people’s lives and rights and dignity for the sake of making people who don’t give a shit consider giving a shit.
Let there be a nuclear war and no one will think he has done any good. But he has valorized a certain kind of appeal to the deplorables that will be with us a long time. Wait till there are 50 senators like Roy Moore.
Plus ça change . . .
Americans do what Americans do, as a cultural collective, while administrations come and go.
Jeez. I’m in the 12% who think it will be good in the long run.
Reasons?
[ul]
[li]Trump winning with a GOP congress may finally put an end to the efforts to repeal the ACA. Hopefully. The next time the GOP will have a GOP president and both houses of congress is hopefully 2024 at the earliest (assuming the dems win the house in 2018, and the presidency in 2020). By 2024 the ACA will have been law for at least a decade, and repeal will be much harder than it was in 2017. [/li][li]Trump leaving office will be followed by a wave of reforms (I would hope). Stronger checks and balances. More transparency. Maybe efforts to make the media more honest and to punish dishonest media. The powers of the executive will be reigned in. [/li][li]Trump being president will empower the left. The GOP has almost enough power on the state level to change the constitution. That won’t happen now, the GOP is going to start losing seats on the state level. [/li][li]The insanity of the GOP is making blue states realize if they want solutions, they have to do it themselves. If they want health reform, stronger unions, etc. they can’t rely on the federal government to do it. So maybe blue states will push further to the left, moving the overton window on policy. [/li][li]I came of age politically when Bush was president. His behavior made me realize I never wanted to be a republican. My brother was the same way. Trump is doing the same thing, a bunch of people in their teens and 20s are seeing how cruel, stupid and insane the GOP is and hopefully will not join them. [/li][li]After covering up for all Trump’s crimes and treason, the GOP will (hopefully) have lost credibility for 20+ years when they talk about crime and treason by the left. The religious right are now shown to be morally bankrupt power hungry authoritarians, nothing more and nothing less.[/li][li]Trump winning is forcing America to confront our attitudes about race, gender, sexual harassment, etc. Issues that normally simmer under the surface or the people who cause problems like to pretend don’t exist. Lots of women are coming forward and being open about abuse, and lots of people in the center can see that bigotry is much worse than they thought, forcing them to pick sides. [/li][/ul]
Bad things about Trump:
[ul]
[li]Trump makes it easier for China to take over the role of world leader. Other nations don’t respect America nearly as much now that we elected Trump. [/li][li]He could pave the way for the next authoritarian, who may not be as mentally ill or incompetent as Trump is. But the next guy’s followers will be just as blind and loyal.[/li][li]Trump could start a war with North Korea. If that happens, that’ll vastly outweigh any good that could possibly come. [/li][/ul]
True, but most of the people who thought he was qualified to lead are white people over age 50. They make up maybe 1/3 of voters but they made up half of Trump’s voters.
It sucks to say it, but them dying of old agewill be good for America on a moral and political level. Just like the old guard in the south who wanted segregation forever dying off was good for civilization, those people dying off is good too. Every 4 year cycle, about 5% of the electorate dies off and is replaced.
It sucks because I know people in that generation, and not all of them are like that (1/3 of white baby boomers didn’t vote Trump. They voted Clinton or 3rd party). Even the ones who are like that (angry, bigoted, simple minded, misinformed) aren’t bad people outside of politics. But overall, that is the base of the angry, irrational, misinformed, hateful, bigoted, misogynistic Trump cult. And again, just like the old guard in the south who wanted segregation forever dying off was good for humanity, these people dying off will be good too. And they will be replaced by white millennials (who only gave Trump 47% of their vote, compared to 62% for white baby boomers) and non-whites who don’t buy into angry right wing propaganda nearly as much.
Fox News and talk radio’s audience has a median age of 70.
The great thing about cancer is that it makes you appreciate every day you’re alive! So let’s give everyone cancer! It’s fucking amazing! And just think how good it will feel when Trump is finally gone! I’m gonna start sawing off my toes right now, just think how good it will feel when the bloody stumps finally scab over and form scar tissue and I’m not in agonizing pain every second!
None of these things will happen and a lot of people will suffer and are already suffering.
The bad will outweigh the good. The same would be true if Hillary had won.
Regards,
Shodan
The only thing I see the Dems (my party) united on, is hating on Trump supporters. And it’s for that very reason, Trump is going to be a two term President.
Once I see the Dems start actually showing concern for the people and the issues of fly over America, then I’ll start having hope for the Democratic party.
Efforts by who - the federal government?
Assume for the moment that Trump is replaced by Pence. What efforts to punish dishonest media would you support?
Regards,
Shoda
From 2050? Considering the good people tend to find now in Nixon I won’t be surprised if they find the same kind of stuff/good in regards Trump.
I voted bad over the good because I think Trump has cause long term political damage to the USA. I think the midterm and 2020 elections will really say whether this is true or not. If Bannonites win elections in the midterm and if Trump and more Bannonites win in 2020, then the USA is in some serious jeopardy. If on the other hand there is a resounding rejection of Bannonites in the midterms, especially at the GOP primary level, then probably the damage caused by Trump is pretty minor and that would mean the short term pain of having Trump would be worth the longer term gain of the rejection of White Nationalism. Just have to wait and see, but it certainly appears to me that Bannon and his ilk are on the rise. I expect a lot of alt-right types to win their primaries, and I think the Republicans are going to do very well in the midterms. I think the Bannonites are more energized than the Democrats and are a tighter voting bloc. White Nationalism might be a long term political power in the USA, and that’s not good.
What would you propose?
Voting against yesterday’s terrible bank bill, perhaps?
Expanding health insurance? Student loan reform? Economic development? Environmental protections? Wage equity? I usually fly over fly over America, but what do you think their issues are? From what I read, all a candidate should do is visit the state more often during the campaign and make them feel “heard.”