Indiana primary thread

Getting an early start. It looks like it will come down to this one and California and as of now Trump is easily in the lead.

Gotta say; two weeks ago, I’d have put my money on Cruz to win IN. It is, after all, the state that gave America VP Quayle. But Trump’s momentum, and Cruz’s idiotic “running-mate” thing with Carly, who ruined a great company and profited from it, as well as his 3rd place finishes, basically guarantees The Donald will win it.

I’m going to hipshot Trump +5.

Not as commanding a win as in the northeast and in less favorable territory but the NeverTrump people will be discouraged and other GOP voters will just want to wrap this thing up. It’s not fun any longer, no one else deserves the nomination “more”, let’s just get it over with.

There’s a crazy conservative running for senate in Indiana, and a lot of Dems are tempted to cross-over vote in Indiana, which has open primaries. Since it’s pretty clear Clinton has the nomination sewn up, it’s even more attractive to cross-over vote against Todd Young, and for Trump, because not only does Trump seem to be someone Clinton could beat, but Cruz is turning out to be truly crazy. I used to be afraid of a Trump presidency, and frankly I still am, but I think I’m even more afraid of a Cruz presidency.

Latest ARG poll shows Trump (and Clinton) +9 in the state

Granted, ARG is one step below ornithomancy but these numbers seem to jive with the rest of them.

I detest Cruz but unless he’s made some other public statements or was responsible for crafting the law somehow, it was his duty as Solicitor General to defend the law in court.
Anyways, for the record Indiana is WTA for each of the 9 districts (3 each for 27 delegates) and 30 delegates for the statewide winner.

And IPFW Downs (no idea about their reliabilty) says Clinton up 13.

Clout (?) says Trump up 2.

538 polls plus puts it a virtual tie with polls only giving a slight Trump lead.

Actually, polls only gives Trump a 79% chance of winning, up from76 a few days ago

Momentum up to now favors Trump. For both parties the presumption of the front runners as nominees is affecting the voting. It’s not quite so settled for the GOP, but even a narrow win by Trump will seal the deal for him because the GOP knows they have to concentrate on the general. On the Democratic side votes for Sanders may be support for his message without indicating a preference for him as the candidate. Only extraordinary upsets would be news from here on out.

Yes with average of polls Trump up 4.6 - a slight lead. Basically that’s based on the ARG and the Clout polls as most weighted and why to weight ARG as other than a feather at this point is beyond me.

Part of the “momentum” bit though is on the downside of momentum - that quite a few who are saying they’d prefer Kasich, 20% of those polled, may decide to not waste their vote last minute. Who do they go to?

Unlike the well known and widely respected “Clout” polling team? Even last week 538 had Trump at 76% on the polls only with much more trustable numbers. Not a “slight” lead.

I thought Trump’s campaign manager (or whoever the new guy is) put it rather cleverly. Asked if Indiana was going to be the nail in Cruz’s coffin, he said: Pennsylvania was the nail in the coffin. Indiana is where he’ll realize he’s IN the coffin.

Unknown reliability pollster is better than pollster known to be crap.

You do understand that that 76% is not a prediction that he’ll get 76% of the vote?

They are stating Trump’s lead in the polls is, to my read, “slight”, under 5 points, and that using only the polls they give him a 76% chance of winning. Using whatever else they use in “polls plus” they place it at a 47% chance of Trump winning.

Yes you are free to read an under 5% lead in the polls, by unknown or known crap pollsters, as more than “slight” if you want.

FWIW my guess is that he will do significantly better than that. I think that Kasich will not get 20% of the vote and that Trump will be where they flip to last second, not Cruz. I’d like to see the GOP dysfunction last longer but a solid win in Indiana will likely stop the storyline of not-Trump.

I have no idea what the fuck you are on about here. Yes, I know that 538 76% chance of winning doesn’t mean winnin 76% of the vote. You said:

538’s polls plus/polls only can only refer to their win prediction unless I’m missing something(thats certainly what I was referring to) and for the past week they’ve put Trump over 75% chance of winning. So it’s not a matter of me being “free to read a less than 5% lead in the polls”, it’s a matter of properly reporting what 538 has predicted.

Yes, you are missing something.

It refers to their predicted range of the vote totals, those little bell-shaped graphs, with the average of the predicted range noted with a dot.

Their average polls-only prediction is 36.5 Cruz and 41.1 Trump with the 80% probability ranges overlapping significantly. They crank that and end up with their 76% probability of a Trump win using that method.

Their average polls-plus is 38.6 Cruz and 38.1 Trump with 80% probability ranges that nearly completely overlap. (Which I referred to as a virtual tie.) They crank that and come up with a 47% of a Trump win using that method.

Do now understand “what the fuck” I was referring to now?

Hillary will win both. Part of me wonders if I should vote for Trump instead just because Trump will be easier to beat in the general. Then again, I never thought he’d make it this far in the primary so what do I know.

They stay home.

Nate Silver had a write up on the theory that Trump’s increasing share of the vote has a lot to do with Cruz and Kasich voters who have decided to just stay home now that the NeverTrump movement has seemed to fizzle out.

I suppose.

Those represent a lot of Republicans who haven’t settled on a new candidate after their earlier choice dropped out, they know it’s not Trump, and they may not want Cruz or Kasich either. I hope they go back to the “Stay Home, Don’t Vote” approach in the general.

And could be. Past cycle behavior may not apply now. But in past cycles polls just before primaries with 3 or more candidates often had the third place one doing much less well and their support going to one or the other top two one.