Obviously it was a poor leave from Archer but it was a decent ball, going for the top of off is always going to trouble the batsman. No disagreement with Cumbrian, it’s just this particular England XI has a longer tail than we’ve become accustomed to.
I don’t understand why England doesn’t just declare at this point. Can’t see India winning given the runs required and time remaining, so why not give themselves a better chance to get the 20 wickets?
Nah, I also agree with Cumbrian about batting on tomorrow, making the Indians field for a third day in a row is great psychologically, even if it only lasts 10 minutes. It doesn’t take significant time out of the game and might pile on a few more runs as well. England’s best chance might be to bat once and hope for a collapse.
If they were going to declare, the time to do it would have been with 10 overs to go last night, but I don’t think it’s the right pitch for that plan.
Here’s why England shouldn’t have declare today
The pitch isn’t doing enough to expect that England will be able to bowl India out had they declared today. The Indian batting line up is talented and could take England to the cleaners and then you lose on Day 5 when the pitch has deteriorated enough that batting in it becomes very hard. This is what happened here - 477 in the first innings at the same stadium yielded an innings defeat on the last tour.
England’s best chance imo is to try and take more time out of the game and hope that the pitch starts to break up when India are batting. They will be looking to bat only once if possible, or chase a nominal total, by making India follow on. Any runs they can make now might make a difference if the pitch does break up towards the end of the Indian innings. Getting the final 20 or so runs to avoid the follow on might be difficult in that scenario.
Re: Archer. Buttler was the one who left the ball. Archer just didn’t get his bat down in time first up. Was a decent enough delivery hitting the top of off though, but you’d still want to keep it out. Leach has been managing after all.
Right, that would have been optimal. At that point England was at about 530, and there were about 280 overs left in the match. India would need at least 730 runs to win, as I would assume at least 200 for England in their 2nd innings. I also assume at least 80 overs for England’s 2nd innings, so India would only have, at most, 200 overs to get at least 730 runs to have any chance of winning.
So to me, India is already playing for a draw at best, and thus England should be trying maximize the chances of bowling India out.
It would take India the best part of 2 and a half days to build any sort of defendable lead so I think, yes, we are looking most likely at an England win or draw.
How to winkle out that win though? Well the spinners aren’t looking too dangerous yet but there are some signs that the pitch is starting to misbehave and I don’t see any way that India can avoid having to deal with saving the match on a day five pitch with tricks up its sleeve. And if it is pace rather than spin that does it, I’d rather have Anderson and Archer to play with, especially early tomorrow.
I didn’t see this until after my next post. In that example, India batted for 190 overs at a RR of almost 4.0. Sure, that would blow up my math, but I assume that was a very rare 1-innings performance by India. Ultimately, it seems to be a decision on if improving your chance of a win is preferable to preventing any chance of a loss, or vice versa.
But the extra 25+ runs on the board (compared with declaring at 530) have improved the chances of a win.
Just reviewed that scorecard from 2016. England must have been feeling pretty good about their 477. Then it takes 150 runs to get the first wicket. Oh well - at least we then knock off the apparent dangermen (Pujara and Kohli) at a cost of only 60 more - things are looking up again. Then, disaster - the next partnership puts on 160. Ok, 372/4, if we can run through the rest we might still get a small first innings lead. Nope - the next 3 wickets take 60, 180, and 140 runs to get. What an experience.
Bloody hell. England right in the game now. 73-4. They’ve bowled and fielded exceptionally this morning.
Elsewhere, WI have had a great couple of sessions in Bangladesh and now, late on day 5, need 140 in 38 overs with 7 wickets in hand. They have been behind the game a lot of the time. This is now very do-able.
WI have pulled it back to a reasonable ODI chase,they should expect to win this now really. But a couple of wickets might see them shut up shop for the draw.
England going well. Pant is going well, but can he really keep hitting those sixes off Leach?
Couple of wickets gone down for WI. Now need 88 off 21 overs with 5 wickets in hand. Mayers is still there - must be a rarity for a test debutant to score a ton in the 4th innings - and will surely be key if they are to do it.
SA need 370 in 4 and a half sessions to best Pakistan.
Three decent test matches all happening at the same time. The England India game has gone into a little bit of a lull and is maybe the least interesting right now but is still pretty compelling.
Mayers, on debut, scores 210 in the final innings of the match, steering the 5th biggest run chase of all time to a successful conclusion with 2 and a half overs and 3 wickets to spare for a Windies win when they were behind the game to Bangladesh for much of the match. One of the all time great innings.
That’s an incredible knock, frankly. 210*, fifth biggest chase in test history. And they lost a wicket with the scores tied!
They were without three first choice players, including their captain and 171 runs behind on first innings. The third highest score in the 4th innings was 23. Mayers has played an absolute blinder to win this match.
And, towards the end of the day in Rawalpindi, South Africa may well be looking at that WI game and thinking, “Well, why not?”. They are currently 125/1 chasing another 255 runs (total of 370 to get), but if someone can just stay in they won’t need a double ton to win tomorrow. SA’s batting has been pretty poor recently though, so we’ll see if they’ve got it. My money would be on Pakistan, though!
Yes, odds must still strongly favour Pakistan with 243 left to get on a 5th-day pitch. Pakistan have home condition on their side and the South African batting has been brittle. That said, 300+ in the 4th innings is no longer the mountain it used to be, but SA will need one of their out-of-form players (du Plessis, de Kock or Bavuma) to come good.
Incredible performance by West Indies - or rather incredible performance by Kyle Mayers. He’s not the first person to score 200 in his first Test but he is the first to do it in the 4th innings. Take him away and Bangladesh win by a distance, if he’d only managed a century on debut and a 200-run stand with Bonner, they probably spin through the tail and win comfortably.
And then England, well, if you’d offered them 257-6, with all the big names gone, at the start of the day they’d have grabbed it. But I suspect India have done just enough to make a draw most likely. The England spinners haven’t looked like they might run through India in the second innings - they’ve bowled some good balls but not consistently. Potentially a fascinating tactical decision - if England get the last 4 wickets relatively quickly tomorrow, and India are all out about 275 behind in the first session, do you enforce the follow-on?