I don’t think they will enforce the follow on. I think they’ll look to bat most of two sessions and try and get give themselves as much time to bowl India out as possible, although it seems unlikely now they will get 4 sessions unless India really collapse within 5 or 6 overs tomorrow.
England do have the power hitting to do it though. But can we spin them out on the last day?
Noted by statistician Andrew Samson on Twitter. 300+ scores (historically quite large chases) have been chased down 4 times in the last 61 Tests (one every 15-16 Test matches). Prior to that, 300+ got chased down once every 78 Tests. There’s a chance that this goes to 5 in the last 62 if SA can pull off the chase tomorrow.
This is what white ball cricket’s evolution has done to Test cricket in my view (as well as the fact that pitches have been covered for 30-40 years whereas they weren’t in Test cricket’s earlier eras). Players believe that totals can be chased down and are willing to take the risks to do it, and, as a result, there needs to be a recalibration of what is safe when setting a target.
Should England manage to get the next 4 wickets quickly and have a lead of 250, mathematically it might seem like a tricky decision (as you should back yourself to make a nominal score in the 4th innings, should you be able to bowl them out again) but their bowlers will be tired, so giving them 2 sessions out of the sun and putting their feet up probably makes sense. But they can’t mess around. They need to score runs in those two sessions and set 400 in 4 sessions at absolute minimum. This Indian batting unit could well chase even that down.
I’m old enough that I can’t quite get my head around 300+ chase being a realistic prospect. 350+ just blows my mind. Now it looks like we might have three 300+ chases in a month. Maybe four if the Eng vs Ind goes the right way.
Though as a Pakistan supporter, I’m hoping that SA don’t make it.
In all these hypotheticals I feel batting for 2 sessions is a touch too long. I’d rather see them aiming for 150-200 in 40 overs, that gives an extra 20 overs to get the 10 crucial wickets.
5 an over for 40 overs when there is no one day wide rule so you can hide the ball down leg side or well wide of off stump? And you can set a very defensive field that you can’t in white ball?
It’s not impossible but it’s also not going to be easy.
Got to get the wickets first and preferably quite quickly. They’ll have to go more quickly with the bat (if they get chance) if they haven’t got India all out in the first hour tomorrow.
I never said it would be easy 
. Winning a Test in India against this team isn’t easy - but in this position, you need to have a plan to do it.
Case in point - we didn’t roll them quickly enough to carry out my plan anyway (must have been a great innings from Sundar, whose Test average is currently 84.5 - albeit after only 3 innings). But in this session we have clearly gone out with a plan to get quick runs at the expense of wickets, and while the latter have racked up more quickly than we’d like, it’s still a strong position. I’d like to see us gamble a little bit and put them in straight after tea even if the lead is ‘only’ 350 or so. You don’t get positions like this very often - it would be a shame to waste it by being too conservative. And perversely, by giving the Indians what looks a gettable target, they might give us more wickets. However, I doubt England’s management share my views on this.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s apparently serene progressions has been halted by 2 quick wickets, 241/3 is now 242/5 and suddenly it looks a whole lot harder for them.
And Root goes as I type - if ever we needed a quick 30 off 20 from Buttler, it’s now.
ETA: also worth mentioning that Extras have been our 12th man in this match - 45 in the first innings, including a ridiculous 20 no balls (plus another 5 of them this innings). That could well end up being the difference. I just think that’s so poor for an international-standard bowler - especially spinners, who have been the chief culprits.
Pakistan have knocked the teeth out of the South African chase and now should get to victory. 264-7.
If I were England I would bat for, at absolute maximum, another half hour and give Archer opportunity to bowl one long spell or two short spells tonight before the ball falls into its usual state of disrepair. It seems they want 400, so they should get them quickly. If the most amazing thing happens and Buttler goes Sobers for an over, I’d whip them straight off after he’s hit his 6 6s.
I’d also want all the seamers pounding the dead spot that did for Root just now until everything pitching there goes through at shin height at maximum.
SA all out - Pakistan win by 95 runs and the series 2-0. Just completely overpowered SA in every phase of the game.
Hasan and Shaheen the leading lights for Pakistan with the ball in this game.
England batting weirdly slow now. 400 ahead now though, so we might see some slogging before a declaration with 15 or so overs at them.
Buttler is 26 off 36! It’s normally the other way around!
India also, perfectly legitimately, on a go slow to take further time out of the game. I think this is enough, get to bowling and see what happens. You should get enough time with a second new ball for it to maybe start to reverse right at the end of the game if you need it too.
It’s getting silly now in my view - batting on is one thing, but batting as conservatively as they have been is literally just wasting their own time. And why is Anderson padded up? What if he cops one on the finger from Bumrah and can’t bowl?
We don’t need any more runs, but we might need more time.
ETA: the talksport/TV combo is perfect, as the radio is a few seconds ahead of the TV feed - so you can have both on, while working, with the TV muted, and if something exciting happens there is time to glance up at the screen and see it ‘live’. Thanks again, Teuton!
Well done Jimmy. Golden duck very sensible
“Sorry boss, tried my best, shucks. Guess I’ll just have to bowl rather than bat, eh?”
I’m assuming England have a very firm view of how bad this pitch is going to get tomorrow.
Well, quite (though it was silver rather than golden - the radio commentary had some fun with the fact he played a reverse sweep first ball). Though you would have thought he would have had enough sway in the dressing room to just tell Root “come on, let’s have a bowl”.
Well, Jack, that is a good delivery. Rohit goes. 25-1
India finish on 39/1. I can’t see India winning, realistically, but they are certainly capable of batting for a draw, and if Pant is still in towards the end of the day with 5 or 6 an over to get…
Agree that it’s the longest of long shots. 55-40-5 draw-eng-ind is how I’d estimate the probabilities.
…then we probably won’t bowl Leach at him, instead we’ll get Jimmy to send them down well wide of off or just wide of leg as mentioned by Cumbrian earlier!
I think Darren Gough nailed it on talksport though - if, with a few overs to go tomorrow, we’re worried about India winning/drawing, the conversation will be about how poorly England have bowled/fielded, barring an exceptional performance from one or two of the batsmen.
If you can’t defend 420 in the 4th innings or a total well in advance of 350 in one day, you don’t deserve to win.
Getting them all out is slightly different. A lot is going to depend on the pitch, how well England use it and whether Gill, Kohli, Rahane, Pant and Sundar can make England crap themselves or not.
Waking up to India 6 down for 157. An India won is even more of a pipe dream now, but Kohli will think as long as he is there they can force the draw.
Looking good for England though!