Yes…the recent 538 podcast highlights that, mathematically, Trump has an advantage (i.e., wins over half the simulations) even when Biden is polling nationally at about 3.5% higher than him. At 4%, it’s a toss-up. 4.5%, things start to lean Biden’s way.
Scary, and profoundly un-democratic. I lived in Mexico circa 2000, and I had a hard time explaining to me much-smarter-than-me Mexican friends and colleagues what this whole stupid Electoral College thing was about.
Here’s the discussion — at 8:00 to 11:00
Good article, @JKellyMap and thanks for sharing.
We hear people talk about the potential to under count “shy” Trump voters, but I don’t necessarily think that Trump voters are shy. It could be that they’re just potentially harder to count in conventional surveys. I would expect 2020 surveys to be better in this regard than they were a few years ago. Moreover, as Silver has said previously in so many words, the polls in the aggregate generally do tell the story in terms of nationwide polling; it’s just that nationwide polling itself does not necessarily predict the outcome of an election because of the way our system works.
If Trump somehow wins in 2020, it would be the 3rd time in 6 elections that the electoral college Trumped the national vote, which is not a good thing, IMO. Not that there’s something inherently wrong about having 51 separate contests for president per se, but it would be indicative of a system that has been gamed by political strategists and obstructionists.
Eh, not so sure I’d put it like that. You yourself mentioned Silver, and FiveThirtyEight has Biden at 70% chance of winning right now. But I understand the concern. Even given that, I still lie awake at night pondering the horror of four more years of Trump!
Will Dr. Fauci be found dead on a bench in Ft. Marcy Park in late September of an apparent suicide?
There’s speculation that the recent vocal cord surgery – to remove the nodule – was to allow him to scream, if necessary.
Stop expecting people of the past to hold to the morals and expected behaviors of today. In 200 years they may be horrified that we didn’t creche raise all our children in common so they could have a level playing field when it comes to medical care, nutrition and education. The horrors of knowing your birthing units!
It really is one of those lesser evil options. If people put in write ins, then it is quite possible that Trump would win on the vote count because there are 3 million people writing in Bill the Cat, instead of putting a real human while flawed is still better than an outright con man and criminal. [number pulled out of my ass, of course.][quote=“Mahaloth, post:92, topic:919468”]
There is no reason not to count every single person’s vote as 1.0 value, including the people of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, who receive 0.0 votes right now.
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Personally I agree. We are not the bucolic mostly agriculturally based 13 colonies with no mass transit and no particular drive for education of the masses that needed ‘shepherding’ by the elite of the colonies. We have mass transport, mass communications, mass education. We are now the equivalent of the total population being residents of say Boston and environs. I know what is going on in Virginia, Ohio, Washington and Florida pretty much as it is happening. I can monitor speeches by people all over the world in almost real time, and I have at least the education of one of the founding fathers [I went to college, it may not be Harvard or William and Mary, but I didn’t stop going to school in third grade and get married and pop out a dozen kids. I was educated with a trade on top of college.] I think I am well qualified to make my own political decisions.
The difference is, even 200 years ago, there was a significant compliment of people who thought that owning other people was wrong.
There are no people that think that not creche raising our children is wrong.
And the point there is, that if in 200 years, we are creche raising out children, then the standards that we currently have are irrelevant, and should not be held as ideals.
If the U.S. in the only country in the world that has approved the vaccine, I don’t think many health care workers would be taking it (you mentioned the number 100,000).
If just the U.S. and Russia approved, that wouldn’t be a good look for Donald either.
I want to see U.K. approval before taking it myself.
I am not going near the vaccine until it has been thoroughly tested on every anti-vaxxer out there.
Perhaps I’m just being naively optimistic in retaining any faith in the American people, but I think the polls this time may err in the opposite way, in underestimating a much larger turnout of opposition to Trump.
In 2016 nobody really believed Trump would win, and plenty of people were unenthusiastic enough about Hillary that they just didn’t bother. And even if he did win, people assumed that the leadership of the party would keep him reined in and do the actual governing, and that the constitution is robust enough that he couldn’t do that much real harm.
The reality, of course, has been far worse, and that’s pretty obvious to any swing voter who doesn’t only watch Fox News dawn to dusk.
I think there’s the possibility of a much higher turnout of no-more-Trump voting than expected.
Not necessarily. Trump could win the popular vote and the EC.
Not likely.
We still enslave dolphins and Chimps, and there are lots of people who think that is wrong.
Dont judge people of yesterday by todays standards. By that criteria, they are all assholes.
And by the same token, we should not use the judgement of the people of yesterday in order to inform how to live today.
And yet we do.
That’s the point. If we are taking direction from someone, then we should look into what sort of things may have affected their judgement, and how their world may not be relevant for us to look to them for guidance in ours.
It looks like Individual-ONE is currently pulling out all the stops to maximize civil unrest: it is unlikely that the country could be stable with four more years of him in power.
OK, so Individual-ONE has the strategy that civil disorder will improve his re-elect chances on a law and order platform.
Presume he wins both popular vote and EC so the question of legitimacy is moot.
Up to inauguration and then the second term, with the racial and ideological tensions unsalved what might be the plan?
Does he solve or at least propose to solve the problems he’s created for the benefit of his legacy or continue to stoke the fires of discontent and ride the tiger?
.
BTW, is there any feasible scenario where Trump wins the popular vote but loses in the EC?
Probably not, but if it does happen, I assume that Democrats will insist that he should remain POTUS, since they are such champions of the popular vote, and we know they wouldn’t want to be hypocrites. Right?
The only one I can come up with would be where there is sky-high turnout for both parties everywhere - swing states, red states - except in California and New York, where voters are apathetic (‘my vote doesn’t matter because of EC.’)
538 has that as a less than 1 in 100 chance. There a chart that has many different weird and not-so-weird scenarios on their election page.
@Tim_R.Mortiss, people responded in good faith to your question about why Trump should respond to allegations that he knew the virus was deadly and why it’s different this time when a politician said something different in private than in public over in the other thread. Are you going to return and defend Trump?
To the OP – why only four? Trump himself has said that he deserves a do-over for this first four since he was the most harassed president evah!