Sen. John Kerry has been the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for President in 2004 all along. Not only as he has been taken by surprise by the insurgent Gov. Howard Dean, target constituencies are being swallowed up by Lieberman, Gephardt, and Graham, while John Edwards is on the verge of a surge in the south. All in all, Kerry has nothing that has caught on with the primary voters out there. Check out the Joe Klein article in Time: http://www.time.com/time/columnist/klein/article/0,9565,464429,00.html
And answer the question - do you think Kerry has squandered his chance? Or has he only just begun? Is he the Gore of 2004?
The primaries are still more than 6 months away… perhaps Kerry hasn’t found his issue or his stride or his whatever yet. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. Strikes me as way too early to say he’s finished, though.
I tend to agree with you guys. While I know it is too early to call, I feel like Kerry had a window that he failed to capitalize on. Stepping back and looking at the whole field, there really was no reason to consider him the front runner at all.
What bothers me is the notion that Democrats have to line up ASAP behind one candidate. That happened in 2004 with Gore the Establishment Democrat and he blew it (even if he really won).
Strongly agree. Consider that every president since Kennedy has been from the South, Midwest or West. “Taxachusetts” has a bad rep among national voters.
I’d say Kerry hasn’t blown it yet, but he will. He has the same people working for him that worked for Gore. So far I think he has been listening to those people and its killing his chances.
No. Not yet. Too early to tell. Depends on how stupid he is.
Lots of americans are getting very uneasy with all the millions of job losses, the daily factory closings, the falling dollar, the budget deficits both federal and in all the states, the wars and threats of war, the daily terrorist alert colors, our boys in Iraq getting killed every day, etc. I dont see the situation gettting any better by next summer either.
If Kerry can position himself to say what voters will want in 2004, he can win, and that goes for any democrat. Most people vote their pocketbooks.
Whatever candidate promises jobs and peace and an end to terrorism, will win in 2004. It is not too late for Kerry to address the concerns of most americans.
I disagree. I don’t see any Democrat in the current field that would beat GWB if the election were held today. Next year…who knows? But I think that in the end, GWB gets reelected. I believe that the polls in 2004 will show that people are a lot less tolerant of liberalism post-9/11.
All candidates promise the moon. However, any candidate that would promise “an end to terrorism” would be laughed out of the room. People know it’s not that easy. And any Democrat that promises to go after terrorists the way that GWB has won’t be taken seriously either. The anti-war message has taken care of that. Like it or not, Republicans have more credibility when it comes to national defense and terrorism issues.
Actually I still think that Kerry has a good chance of winning both the primaries and the general election. He has a strong military record, a lot of experience in the Senate and he projects gravitas in a way that most of the other candidates (or for that matter Bush) don’t. In the post 9-11 environment that matters.
Having said there is no question that he faces an unexpectedly stiff challenge from Dean in the primaries especially in New Hampshire.
Incidentally I think the Klein article was quite positive about Kerry in the last two paragraphs. I don’t think it was suggesting he is finished by any stretch of the imagination.