New Detroit Free Press poll has Obama up by 13 points in Michigan.
Amazing Obama’s up in the western part of the state, considering that’s historically about as right-wing conservative as it gets.
More
on the “likely voter” conundrum and accounting for an apparently changing voting demographic. Many pollsters may be significantly systematically undercounting the youth, the Black, and the Hispanic vote. Explanations in the link. Significantly the pollster who seems to be best accounting for these demographics (although still a bit conservatively) has Obama ahead in Indiana. FWIW.
Two words - no teleprompter.
Exactly. She doesn’t have a problem being on camera. She has a problem thinking for herself.
Both, actually. They aren’t exactly what pollsters call “likely voters”, and they’re not as likely to vote, which is why we have a very effective plan coming up on Election Day. Also, based on sheer numbers and demographics and all that, the lion’s share of these new voters are big time Obama supporters.
I think this graph illustrates McCain’s real problem. These are the polling results per state counting only the votes with a margin of > 5%. Except for the Repub-convention bounce, Obama has consistently had a much more solid base of truly likely states. The states that poll as squeakers could go either way. McCain needs to harvest far more of them to add to his baseline, and there’s no reason to think that that would happen.
Especially if he doesn’t show up in Oxford tonight.
Detroit Free Press says today that Obamas lead in Michigan is now 51-38.
He has announced that he will show in Oxford tonight.
Not only is he showing up; he has already wonthe debate…
Dewey, is that you?
I need some explanations about morning numbers.
First the easy stuff, just to say, yeah, McCain’s stunt don’t seem to be playing so well. Rasmussen with Obama +5 in VA. FL tightening up by them to the toss-up status of McCain +1. Two Missouri polls of McCain only +2 and +1. The last three PA polls making it a more comfortable Obama +4, +4, and +6. Yes, good news.
And I’m happy enough that Rasmussen’s daily tracker of “likely voters” has Obama +5, and that Gallup is +3. It’s the curiousness of their reversal in lean that puzzles me. Two days running, ever since the McCain suspension stunt, Rasmussen’s defined “likely voters” are more down on McCain’s stunt than are the pool of all RVs as reflected in Gallup’s numbers.
Is that just statistical noise or is there some reason that “likely voters” (as defined by pollsters, generally to mean those who have voted in past Presidential elections, unless they’ve changed their screen methodology) are more negative on McCain’s antics than the general population?
Possibly just that likely voters/people who voted in the past are more likely to follow political news, thereby swinging more in either direction when the latest big news comes up.
It’s really impossible to tell what the day to day flips in the daily trackers means though, it could mean a great McCain day fell off, or Obama had a great day, which could just be an outlier, or it could be a more permanent shift. We’ll have a better idea in a few days. That said, always better to improve than not 
Perhaps likely voters are more likely (sorry) to be watching the news and especially the debates and so are more annoyed at one of their election barometers being threatened?
Ah. Good point Discordia. I do remember that LV polls are historically more sensitive to short term movements in enthusiasm. And yes they might be more annoyed at the possibility of bagging out of a debate. Thanks.
My vague impression is Rasmussen has tended to be more stable than Gallup in the past so I am not sure the volatile LV theory is applicable in this instance. Gallup has also moved three points in one day which is quite a lot for a tracking poll so perhaps this is just a signal of a general shift against McCain because of the suspension stunt. Any effect of the suspension is likely to be swamped by the debate so it will be hard to tell.
Obama is 6 points up in the latest Rasmussentracking. Though it includes numbers from Friday apparently very few of them would have heard the debate so this will be the last tracking from Rasmussen before the debate starts influencing the numbers. Clearly the suspension stunt backfired significantly on McCain and the question is whether he will pull back some of it with the debate.
My initial impression was that both of them reasonably well in the debate but after looking at the instant polls and reading the reactions I suspect that Obama will gain more with undecided voters. I thought McCain did a reasonable job of articulating his views but when it came to the intangibles: body language, facial gestures, voice modulation he was poor. I suspect this has a significant effect on voters who don’t follow politics closely. Secondly Obama was very disciplined and pursued a strategy designed to appeal to moderates. McCain was much more scattershot in his approach. That exchange about tactics and strategy was ironic because McCain doesn’t seem to understand the distinction when it comes to his own campaign.
All this doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate bump for Obama; the undecided may wait till the last debate before making up their mind. And McCain may have well won a few to his side. We should get a clearer picture by Tuesday when we get three days of polling after the debate.
Like Frodo, I don’t think McCain’s forked yet, but I agree it’s time to have the silverware handy.
It’s not so much Obama’s lead, which isn’t huge, so much as that it’s hard to see where McCain takes his campaign from here, how he fights his way back in it. His campaign has been all over the place, going one way and then another, contradicting itself and being caught out in numerous falsehoods. He got a two-week burst of enthusiasm from the Palin nomination, and now even the wingnuts are starting to realize she sounds like a fruitcake. He’s absolutely lost his ‘base’ amongst the punditocracy, and many of them are taking it personally, feeling like McCain’s betrayed them for trusting him. And the whole country has watched him flop around, saying that the economy’s fundamentally sound one day, then ‘suspending his campaign’ and flying back to Washington to supposedly fix things a few days later - and torpedoing negotiations when he got there. Backing out of the first debate (in a way that seemed deliberately calculated to wipe out the Veep Debate), then backing back in again. And last night, he certainly didn’t do anything to change the momentum back his way.
I don’t see where he gets a game-changer. His real problem is that he’s a Republican (and mostly a pretty orthodox one) running in a time when the Republican approach to governance has already been taken to its logical (and disastrous, in the opinion of most of the electorate) extreme. He’s got to both hang on to the GOP base, and disassociate himself from the GOP brand. He’s already tried a whole basket of tricks, and it’s hard to see what he’s got left.
If it was just a Presidential election, and not also a VP election, I’d say McCain’s campaign was in decent shape and could win the whole enchilada, just because he did pretty well during the debate. This doesn’t surprise me, but a lot of people seemed to assume Obama would wipe him out.
But Palin has gone from being a boost to being an absolute anchor. Her competence is openly mocked. My buddy in California, a staunch lifetime Republican who thinks John McCain is the cat’s ass, flatly refuses to vote for a ticket with Sarah Palin on it. It’s an anecdote but there’s thousands and thousands more like him.
Obama could still commit some huge gaffe, or the GOP could cheat somehow, but right now Palin is looking like the torpedo that’s gonna sink the USS McCain.