I think I posted a comment similar to this somewhere but by now don’t remember where … but was reminded of it by a bit I heard on the radio earlier today.
McCain is a gambler - a big craps player to be specific. He both literally and figuratively likes to roll the dice. It really defines his personality, from the kind of pilot he was, to the kind of campaign he is running, to the kind of decisions he’d make as President.
In contrast Obama is a poker player. Quite good at it by most reports - second among Presidential political figures of history maybe only to Nixon if reports are to be believed.
McCain is a craps player in a poker match is my point. And Obama has been quietly counting the cards. I am sure that McCain will come up with another wild ass idea to roll the dice with again but Obama knows he has a winning hand right now, won’t get suckered into making bad bets, and can’t be bluffed as McCain tried to do last week.
McCain the gambler is a totally apt strategy. I suspect that he’ll make one last attempt right before the election to put himself over the top. It will either flop or fail, and if it fails you’ll probably be looking at an Obama landslide.
It’s a funny campaign in that we really seem to be getting a feel for it now. McCain appears to be the clear loser already yet we don’t know what he’ll do between now and then.
I like to think there is a clear shift if there is a two day trend. The RealClearPolitics average tends to get updated a few times a day, but over two days since debate numbers have been taken into account Obama went from 4.0 to 4.8.
The Palin and Convention bump simply died out once Palin started talking, the economy started failing, and Obama’s camp became more aggressive in their ads. Maybe the shift is all economy and nothing else, but even so, there is little McCain can do to shift momentum. Obama has proven himself all too good at this game.
McCain’s attempt at suspension (I think to drown out news of his ties with one of the FM companies and Palin’s interview with Couric) were turned right against him. Obama treated it like no big deal and it ended up being nothing.
Obama proved he knew something about foreign policy and that he could hold his own in a debate. That translates to points for Obama because he overcame negative misconceptions, whereas McCain didn’t.
All this combined with the Obama camp being more organized in swing states and voter drives (Democrats are up by 11 million registered voters is what I’m hearing) translates to a crushing defeat for McCain come Nov. 4.
What can McCain do until then? He can’t swift boat Obama, look what happened with his sex education ad. He can’t pull another crazy stunt because the last two (Palin and suspending the campaign) have made him look reckless. He has the VP and economic debate to look forward to. Even during the social issues debate the advantage is all Obama. He just has to calm worried conservatives that he is too liberal and he will gain in the polls.
What’s McCain got left? I’m not counting him out just yet because this guy isn’t the type to give up, but what can he do? I’m very interested to see what he comes up with, but I doubt it will work.
I don’t know that he can or will do anything. But outside events could still have an impact: a terrorist strike in the US, someone shooting GWB, an alien landing, a video of Obama saying he’s going to kill whitey, revelations that Joe Biden is having an affair with Larry Craig AND Dick Cheney, an Obama DUI where he runs over a small white child, etc. I think the alien landing is the most likely.
To cut off any snide comments from Obama supporters. Which would be stupid to make. Although I certainly hope, for the family-to-be’s sake, that their marriage (assuming it occurs) does better than Obama’s parents’ did.
Can’t imagine that such a wedding would effect election numbers in any way. Well, maybe negatively on McCain-Palin numbers if Team McCain somehow tries to play it up - there would be a backlash against that exploitation of the kid.
If that were the case, it would be a disaster for McCain. Anyone who thinks this would help is crazy. It would be such a transparent use of a child for political purposes that there would be a serious backlash.
Well, since we’re talking about people who smeared McCain in 2000 (?) re the whole “he fathered a black baby”, I think he’s got one more ace up his sleeve: somehow, someway, preying on the fears and prejudices of middle class white America re race. I have no doubt that such a thing will occur; I just don’t know how much they’ll use it.
I most sincerely hope that such a tactic doesn’t work. I would like to think that it wouldn’t, but I will also never underestimate the credulity and stupidity of the American public.
I am getting paranoid about this whole election etc. I just hope Obama isn’t assassinated at his swearing in.
Just a question - has she ever said anything along the lines of “they really love each other?” All I’ve heard is “she’s pregnant, they’re getting married.” I’d have thought a bit of gushy romance would make this whole affair go down a bit better.
McCain is done. I think they could catch Obama lighting an American flag just to torch up a rock of crack, and people would say so what? The economy still sucks, and it’s the fault of deregulatory, corporate ass-kissers like McCain.
Actually, I have more respect for Palin that she didn’t take that road. Of course, Levi Redneck’s facebook would have made a mockery of that in short order…
I hope Bristol has a good support network outside her family–or does she get to move to DC as well? (in that unlikely event, but I won’t believe Obama’s won until he takes physical possession of the WH).
Whoa, you might be right. Hillary wasn’t above using such a tactic, but some say it backfired on her. It is an extremely risky move. There will no doubt be outcries, but you have to hope that despite the public backlash you’ll convince a significant number of closet racists to change their vote.
I can’t even imagine how he would try and play it.
I honestly do not think that Clinton tried to appeal to racism. I think that some of her sleazier supporters may have, but Clinton and that portion of her actual campaign that was under her control did not. I didn’t think so then and I don’t think so now. It would have been political suicide, and the Clintons aren’t suicidal.
