The VP isn’t worth a bucket of warm spit, and dudes know that. Palin is just a lightning rod and ticket balancer.
There is no way Obama will win TX. There’s still reasonable doubt he’ll even win the election.
For that matter, I’ll never have a chance at the Presidency after this year, either. The difference is, I won’t have a Senate seat, either. And I don’t resent any of the candidates (not even McCain) for that.
Before last week, I had literally seen more material for Dwight Eisenhower around here than for McCain. There’s Obama bumper stickers and buttons and yard signs and window signs all over the place, and you still see a few stickers for Hillary that people haven’t taken down yet, plus a smattering of Bob Barr and Ron Paul, but if there are any McCain supporters in Bozeman, they’re very, very quiet about it.
This is not, of course, indicative of the state as a whole. Not only is Bozeman what passes for a “major city” in Montana, it’s also a college town, and I think we all know which way the college demographic leans. It’s still a bit bemusing to see Montana painted as bright red online, only to look out the window and see the streets paved in Obama blue.
I think the lack of McCain signs/stickers is due more to the apathy about McCain’s campaign. He’ll win the state, but I’m not thinking he’s getting the volunteers and strong support that you might expect from the home state guy.
I wonder, had Obama picked Napolitano as his VP, would that have been enough to win Arizona?
On her wikipedia page it also says she is considering running for WcCain’s Senate seat; could she beat him? I would think that if any one were to take his from him seat it would be her. Of course I also wonder if he might just not hang it all up when this election is over.
If he loses, he’s going to be hurt, angry, and tired. But he’ll be fighting mad, which may be enough to keep him in the Senate - to try an make the Senate as contrarian as possible for a President Obama. He’s demonized Obama in his mind now, so it will be his moral mission to thwart Obama in every way possible. When is he up for re-election, does anyone know?
This is big. Basically, what this means is that McCain has to do one of three things to win:
- Win Pennsylvania.
No credible poll has shown McCain ahead in PA all year. It was close when Palinmania was at its peak, but that moment’s passed.
- Run the table with respect to all the other competitive states except NH - CO, NV, VA, FL, OH, IN, MO, NC.
It could happen, but it certainly isn’t the way to bet. Unless:
- Drastically change the dynamic of the national race.
I think the voting public already sees a man that’s flailing. He’s fighting an uphill battle against his own loss of credibility.
Conclusion: it would take something pretty colossal to keep Obama from winning, at this point.
2010 I believe. You’re right though, he will no doubt serve the end of his term, and probably be as much of a thorn in Obama’s side as he can. Another wonder- will he and Hillary team up on any legislation?(Doubt that).
When his reelection comes up though, just looking at where this campaign has left him physically, mentally, and public image wise, I don’t know if he would have it left in him for another campaign. If Napolitano did run against him, I don’t know who would win, but it would guess it to be one hell of a battle.
Maybe you should trademark that warm buket of spit line.
Palin is a window to McCain’s decision-making capability, to his judgment or lack thereof, and must be evaluated as an any moment stand-in for the job. Does choosing her demonstrate that he indeed puts country first?
I’d bet that there is more of a chance that Obama wins Texas than that McCain wins the election. Neither is outside the range of possibility.
They have been playing politics all their lives for this moment. Now it is being taken away from them by a guy who was only four years ago a state senator.
McCain has been 10 points ahead of Obama since June and the numbers haven’t budged during the financial crisis. I can’t say Texas will go blue until I as least see something that moves the poll numbers in Obama’s direction.
If Obama moves ahead in the Texas state polls, I think we can safely stick a fork inside a well roasted John McCain.
Not to mention that McCain basically sold his maverick soul to the Republicans in order to get this shot at the Presidency, and he’s still failing. That’s got to hurt big time.
No. Edwards didn’t bring a single Southern state to Kerry. No Southern state was even competitive for Kerry.
It’s a reputed quote by John Nance Gardner, our 32nd Veep.
There is no way that Tx will go Blue. It is more likely that Gore will be our next President.
The will of the people can sometimes be a beautiful thing. 
"Friends, we in the campaign deeply regret that Governor Palin chose to return to Alaska to be with her family in this private time of need. As a substitute vice-presidential running mate, I have chosen this puppy named Jake. If you don’t vote for me, the puppy will be sad.
"Look at the puppy, America. LOOK AT THE PUPPY!
“Shit.”
[QUOTE=Lakai;10268967If Obama moves ahead in the Texas state polls, I think we can safely stick a fork inside a well roasted John McCain.[/QUOTE]
Texas won’t go Obama. The Democrats would love to try and wake the Latino sleeping giant in the state. But, they’re not going to come out enough for Obama. Too much black/Latino bitterness.
Social issues are still important in Texas. The media market would be too expensive for Obama to bother wasting money on.
I was … uh … being sarcastic. :rolleyes:
There is “no way” in the same way that McCain is already “forked”. Improbable to go blue, yes. But if I was offered, oh, say 8 to 1, I’d take it. Or a bet on Texas being within 5.
My contention remains that it is less unlikely than many believe it is, not that it is likely. Again, Rasmussen’s “likely voter” screen significantly discounts newly involved Hispanic voters. If that underestimation gets coupled with a less than vigorous GOP base turn-out, then a surprise may be in the offing. Maybe you’d care to debate with more than a “Nagonnahappen” declaration? This is GD, not IMHO, ya’know.
Hillary and McCain won’t gang up in the Senate. Hillary will be a powerful Senator in a party with a strong majority. She’ll get her health care bill passed. Hillary could leave politics as the wife of a former and popular president and as the Senator who got a national health care plan passed. That leaves her and Bill able to spend the rest of their lives on the lecture and talk show circuit.
Arizona is going to have to make some very painful budget decisions over the next year. This state was hit hard with the housing price drop and tourists dollars aren’t going to rescue the state next year. Napolitano might leave office as a very unpopular ex-governor if she gets blamed for the inevitable tax increases.
Still, McCain might go off the deep end after he loses the presidency. A couple of “Stuck in Iraq” gaffes and he could be defeated in a Senate election if he chooses to run.
I’ve been seeing a lot of McCain ads on TV here in Texas. I think he’s worried.
All Obama has to say is “I’m gratified that Senator McCain will stay in Washington, and I look forward to his ongoing commitment to cross party lines with my Administration to get things done. I’m glad that he puts America first, because it’s that kind of positive attitude that we’ll need to overcome some of our greatest challenges.” And if McCain comes off as too contrarian, he’ll expose himself as the petty pisspot so many of us suspect him to be in the first place.
28/67 M/O isn’t enough for you?
He has so much to waste, though… If I were one of his advisors, I would strongly advise him to send the Clintons down there; apparently they’re very popular in south Texas.