Huh. I guess I always thought of the South West as being different from the East. I mean Obamazona is surrounded by battlegrounds, with the exceptions of Utah and Cali. I figured the only reason Arizona wasn’t in play was because of McCain’s homestate advantage. Had Obama ran with the “state’s most popular elected official” seems like it might have been enough to at least call it a toss-up. Plus, I always thought of AZ as being a growing state much like NC, VA, and NV.
Oh, and since it is not everyday I talk with someone from Arizona, allow me to also add a friendly: Go Hawks!
ETA: Just saw your other post, off to read it now; ignore this one as needed.
So the VP debate has come and gone with nothing there that would change anyone’s minds. Palin exceeded the low bar set for her and while more feel that Biden represents their values and “won”, Palin thereby avoided this opportunity to drive the stake through the heart of the Team McCain beast.
If the election were held today (so sayeth http://election-projection.net/ ) Obama would be a 20 to 1 odds on victor. The election isn’t today though. Last calculation at 538 put to be at about 85% chance of winning as a projection on election day. The difference mainly being that 538’s moel includes the possibility that something unexpected can happen in the next few weeks.
Again, my take is to expect wins even in states in which Obama is down a few points, as I think that the Team Obama ground game will translate into at least two or three percent in those states, that “likely voter” screens undercount Obama support by two or three points, and that the “cell phone effect” is more real than the “Bradley effect.” If I am right then McCain might get 164. Or less. But assume I’m dead wrong. How realistic is it for McCain to run the table of the entire battleground zone, plus pick up something somewhere else?
Or maybe let’s ask it another way. Given how much Obama’s support has firmed up, what could occur that could be the gamechanger that McCain needs?
A terrorist attack. It’s in their best interest to see McCain elected. They don’t need the US to start repairing its international image. They need a guy who’s so pig headed he won’t meet with NATO allies, much less anyone else, so the rest of the world continues to hate us.
I don’t understand how the party that ignored all warnings leading to 9/11 is the one that supposedly protects us better, but people seem to buy it.
You do understand that McCain never meant to say he wouldn’t meet with Spain, right? He didn’t hear “Europe” (sthought they were saying ‘Your garble’) and his campaign was too stupid to admit it. He’s sticking to it now, but he’ll find a way to back out of that if he’s elected.
That being said, I agree that terrorists will be doing their absolute best in the next month to ensure a terrorist attack. Why in the name of Og this would result in a McCain victory is beyond me, since that would alienate virtually every country in the world as well as guaranteeing us the worst possible responses, but apparently it would.
Yeah I know, but the fact that he’s sticking to it is even worse for our “Never Admin To Anything” image that Gee Dubya has established for us over the last 8 years.
To me, that’s two reasons not to vote for it. He can’t hear the question but he makes a snap judgment anyway based on his party line, and he’s too proud to admit a mistake.
His campaign is just too stupid to breathe. Admitting that he didn’t hear it is, to them, legitimizing the issue of his being old, deaf, decrepit, at death’s door, etc. so they’re stonewalling. They often get themselves into worse problems by raising issues best left untouched with a stick, like the whole “Gwen Ifill biased” thingie, which brings up questions about their competence in approving her while they still had a say in her selection.
How someone runs a campaign might not be the best model for how they’ll serve, but fuckup after fuckup is pretty persuasive that a fucked-up administration is looming.
I agree, but he will find a reason to “settle” with Spain. He isn’t so stupid as to end diplomatic relations with an ally because of something like that. He isn’t W. This was his campaign’s fault, and I’m willing to bet you he’s furious about it.
ETA: Well, it was his fault to begin with, because he didn’t know who he was talking to, but it was his campaign’s fault for denying it happened.
This isn’t true - read the converstation below. Its correct that he was confused, but not over the word Europe - the interviewer even said the word Spain a couple of times. It was like a Palin moment where the interviewer kept trying to clue him in, and he just wasn’t getting it.
Q: Senator, finally, let’s talk about Spain. If you’re elected president, would you be willing to invite President José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero to the White House, to meet with you?
A: I would be willing to meet with those leaders who are our friends and want to work with us in a cooperative fashion. And by the way, President Calderón of Mexico is fighting a very, very tough fight against the drug cartels. I’m glad we’re now working in cooperation with the Mexican government on the Merida plan, and I intend to move forward with the relations and invite as many of them as I can of those leaders to the White House.
Q: Would that invitation be extended to the Zapatero government? To the president, itself?
A: Uh, I don’t, you know, honestly, I have to look at the relations and the situations and the priorities, but I can assure you: I will establish closer relations with our friends, and I will stand up to those who want to do harm to the United States of America. I know how to do both.
Q: So, you have to wait and see if he’s willing to, to meet with you, or you be… able to do it? In the White House?
A: Well, again… I, I don’t… All I can tell you is that I have a clear record of working with leaders in the hemisphere that are friends with us, and standing up to those who are not, and that’s judged on the basis of the importance of our relationship with Latin America, and the entire region.
Q: OK, what about Europe? I’m talking about the President of Spain. Are you willing to meet with him, if you’re elected president?
A: I’m willing to meet with any leader who is dedicated to the same principles and philosophy that we are for human rights, democracy and freedom. And I will stand up to those that do not.
He obviously thought he was talking about a leader of a Latin American country. He didn’t hear Spain, and he didn’t hear Europe. He was zoned out somehow.
Is that supposed to make it OK? Seriously, is it now OK for the President to zone out and start blabbing about how he may not really want to meet with the President of _______ when he’s got no fucking idea what country is being talked about?
No, it’s not OK at all. It’s very bad. I just mean he’s not going to cut off diplomatic relations with Spain, regardless of what he may be implying right now, that’s all. I’m for Obama. I think McCain is acting like a jerk, OK? I just don’t think he’s enough of a jerk to trash our relationship with Spain because he didn’t catch which country he was doing an interview about and made a damned fool of himself over.
ETA: He probably has people talking to the Spaniards right now explaining that he’s trying to save face about this. They’re probably having to promise concessions right and left over it.
Really? Or else what? What leverage would the McCain camp concede Spain holds over us? An end to imports of those little red peanuts? It’s probably more like, Yeah, we fucked up, don’t get cocky.
It’s going to be interesting to see how McCain regards Obama at the next two debates. Evidently he gave Obama the cold shoulder at the Senate before the vote the other day, and by all accounts he really seems to be making this personal.
I can almost understand where the hostility is coming from. McCain gave a lot to this country. He fought in the war, suffered as a POW, and served in the Senate for years. And when he thought it was his time to be president the first time in 2000, he watched as it was ripped away from him by another candidate who was willing to do anything to get elected.
I think losing the 2000 nomination was the point the McCain us independents knew and loved died. Instead of hating Bush for what he had done during the campaign, McCain supported him, doing everything he could to make sure that after Bush finished dismantling the country, it’d be his turn at the job.
Now after repeatedly selling out on everything he believes in, and letting his surrogates run the kind of campaign that he of all people should despise, it appears that he’s going to lose anyway. And this is his last chance.
It’s amazing to think that the campaign that pulled the whole “suspension for the good of the country nonsense,” the “lipstick on a pig” fiasco, the “Gwen Ifill is based” nonsense, and so many other complete bullshit outrage stories is only going to get more erratic and crazy as we head into the home stretch. I’m intrigued, but still a little nervous at the same time. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that McCain will do whatever it takes to win. I shudder to think of the October surprises they’re cooking up.
For example, Spain did go into Iraq with us. (They withdrew after Madrid, but they helped to form the soi-disant Coalition of the Willing.) Smaller allies are of value for more than you may realize. We have NATO allies in Afghanistan, and we want more than we have. Some of those could come from Spain. They sure as hell aren’t going to come to help out a President McCain unless he makes might nice on them. Why would they, when he won’t even meet with them?
We want to pressure Iran with as much moral force from Europe as we can bring to bear. Ditto Russia. Helps to have Spain on board. But why should Spain help us out if we won’t even talk to them?
Spain used to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest power in the world. It’s not anymore, but like Britain, it’s still the old home, if you will, of a shitload of countries in the world. Make no mistake; it counts on the global stage.
Geez, that’s pretty bad. I’d never read that transcript before. The interviewer said “Spain . . . . Zapatero . . . . Zapatero . . . . Europe . . . . Spain” and somehow McCain still didn’t get it. Well, maybe he did after the fourth restatement of the question, but just wasn’t willing to admit he’d gotten confused. I think an answer like “Oh, Spain! Of course I meet with them, they’re our ally. I must have misheard you” would have gone over better than just playing it off like he hadn’t completely screwed up.
Oy!, I’m wondering why you see McCain’s gaffe in this way. Just as we Americans know that McCain said what he because he wasn’t clear on what was going on (for whatever reason), Spain surely knows that too.
So, if somehow McCain does become president, it doesn’t seem like it’s something that Spain would hold over McCain’s head in any serious way. After all, the Spanish diplomatic corps doesn’t have a reputation that I know of for petulance and childish posturing over nothing, like some I know of and surely they realize there are bigger issues to deal with when it comes to the real, existing U.S-Spain diplomatic relationship.
I would imagine Spain would because they could. If I were Spain, I’d already be pissed off at the US, and I’d be even more pissed off if they’d just elected McCain. I’d be furious that this guy couldn’t be bothered to figure out that he was talking about me rather than some banana republic just because the names are similar. It’s not like he mixed up the leaders of Belize and Guatamala. He was on the wrong freaking continent. You bet I’d be holding it over his head!
