So when do you plan to start, DS?
As my wife learned back in Lamaze, years ago: “Ah-hee … Ah-hee … Ah-hee” There. I’m better now.
FWIW, Election Projection just revised to give Obama a large electoral vote lead (293-245) in light of recent polling. The webmaster says he’ll explain his methodology in the coming week or so.
No, I think it will be a very close race, and it’s not too late for Obama to win over Fla & MI. One easy way is to get the Clintons on his team. But there may be other ways. And, thinsg do change. But it is bad to think they will only change your way. Rove and co have yet to launch their Swiftboat attack vs Obama.
It is just that-as things stand now- Obama is in for another very tough fight. Mc Cain is by no means “forked”.
And- HRC is very much the longshot now, but the horses are still running. (I’ll admit she is very close to being forked)
The guy has done some damned weird things in the past, so this ought to be good. His favorite trick is to draw a line connecting the most recent 2 points, extend it to Election Day, and call that a projection.
Linky no worky.
Shrug You stated, in regards to electoral vote predictions, that Electoral-Vote.com was “the only one I know of” and so we should work off of it for lack of anything better despite its obvious and glaring flaws in currently predicting the general election*. So people are offering other sources. You’re welcome to dismiss those (and really, I doubt any predictions right now) but you shouldn’t act so petulant when people don’t want to take Electoral-Vote.com as gospel.
*Personally, I like Electoral-Vote.com but the mere fact that the webmaster isn’t using the same methodology right now for the general as he’ll be using in September should speak volumes that the current predictions are to be taken with a large heap of salt.
McCain has no significant media image; they’re too focused on Hillary’s cries of “I’m not dead yet!” and “I’ll bite your kneecaps off!”
In terms of how Obama wins without Ohio and Florida -
OTOH McCain can pull it off but
Absolutely wrong. It’s the best data we have even knowing its weaknesses, or rather, the weaknesses of its source data. Come on now. :dubious:
The absurdity of the electionprojection guy’s methods of projection, as opposed to his source data, makes them noncredible in any context.
Um, okay 
Electoral-vote.com has Obama beating McCain today quite handily - May 31 Electoral Votes: Obama 276 McCain 238
“Slightly over 50 percent for the first time” is an optimistic definition of “handily”, but if you insist …
True, I am more black and white than that, I don’t know what got into me putting ‘handily’ in there…that’s waaaay too grey area for me! That’s so Rhode Island of me - damn it I live in Connecticut!
I’m thinking once this nom is locked up we’ll see Obama’s numbers increase, and then level off.
Charlie Cook believes that the Republicans, “…appear to have a 50-50 shot at holding on to the presidency,” although they will do poorly in both state and national legislative contests.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080607_9487.php
As John Mace notes, the race is still young. But C. Cook has a better idea of how to interpret early polling results than I do: I take his views seriously.
Will McCain be able to get funding?
For the first time in US History, can a Repub can get money?
That’s with a 1% edge in Ohio and Missouri, and ties in Indiana and Virginia. One tiny shift in the wind and it’s McCain 282. And two campaigns can put out a lot of wind in 5 months ;).
McCain just wasted millions of dollars, launching a nationwide TV campaign that focuses on his war on a day when a variety of economic indicators tanked. He couldn’t be more out of touch.
When the situation was reversed, with McCain having a similarly fragile polling advantage over Obama, Elvis was declaiming on that basis that Obama wasn’t electable. Elvis was also saying that, regardless of its weaknesses, electoral-vote.com was the best evidence available of electability.
Aside from that bit of prologue, I expect Phlosphr would be treating electoral-vote.com as an interesting but unreliable piece of horserace fluff.
Exactly. We were all told then that the 1% margins and ties just meant that Obama had to pray for a number of upsets to even be viable. Now the 1% margins in the other direction mean that McCain is still as good as beating Obama. Go figure.
I’ll restate my previous postition, that until E-V.com restarts its older methodology of averaging polls, its general election maps aren’t all that accurate an indicator. But I do find it amusing that what was a telling blow for McCain is a worthless tie for Obama.
He could be touting welfare reform.
You know, back before 2000, when all I knew about McCain was what I read here and there, I thought I liked him: independent attitude, forthrightness of speech, etc. Then, post-9/11 he became a total sellout, in my opinion.
Now, he’s getting a lot of media coverage, and I’ve watched some of his speeches, and I’m thinking: that’s the guy I used to think I liked? WTF?