Is McCain forked yet?

[Pleonast]

McCain is forked. Evidence: George Will on ABC’s This Week said “The next chance Hillary Clinton will have at the Democratic nomination is 2016.” Tacitly assuming that Obama will automatically get the nomination in 2012, because he’s president.

Will is conservative, but not a Republican loyalist. The fact that he’s already accepted an Obama presidency as inevitable bodes ill for McCain.

[Kozmik]

McCain 2024

[Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor]

@Kozmik

McCain 2024

The Bionic Geezer.

[DSeid]

A nice ongoing synthesis of the various electoral vote predicters.

[Shayna]

Hey, did you guys know that The leader of Gemany is President Putin?

Yeah, he may not be forked just yet, but there’s no doubt in my mind that he will be.

[MilTan]

@ElvisL1ves

A clearer summary of Poblano’s statistical projection methods, for those readers who do know the basics. Just look at all the “ifs” that go into his Monte Carlos. IF the black vote goes up 10 percent more, IF the youth vote goes up 20 percent, IF the Latino vote goes up 40 percent, IF those groups go with Obama by some other IF percentage …

That ain’t “data”.

RT made much the same point, but I wanted to make something clear. What you’re pointing to is a projection Silver did to show how differences in turnout could drive an Obama landslide. The projections at fivethirtyeight do not use those increased turnout projections* – they use much more conservative estimates. Which, you’ll note, is why the prediction there shows Obama winning, but barely.

*From here (bolding mine):

What if any assumptions do you make about turnout? I don’t make any assumptions about turnout. The pollsters make various sorts of assumptions about turnout, and I rely on the pollsters. The only exception is in calculating the popular vote percentage shares for each candidate; for this purpose, I assume that turnout will be proportionate to what it was in 2004.

[DrDeth]

[QUOTE=RTFirefly

You should abandon those debate techniques, then…[/QUOTE]

The Irony, it burns!

(Dey googles, dey do nuttink)

**Pleonast ** McCain is forked. Evidence: George Will on ABC’s This Week said “The next chance Hillary Clinton will have at the Democratic nomination is 2016.” Tacitly assuming that Obama will automatically get the nomination in 2012, because he’s president. No, that’s assuming McCain will win and be Prez for 2 terms. :rolleyes:

[Measure_for_Measure]

@ElvisL1ves

Measure, same thing I told him - a projection based on raw data is not the data itself. The assumptions that underlie the projection method have to be considered and understood, and even then the results are projections, not data.

There is certainly a distinction between data and technique.

But Ray Fair’s model doesn’t use any polling data. Instead, it measures the historical relationship between various measures of the economy and share of the popular vote. Apparently, the fit of the model is surprisingly good.

Similarly, Charlie Cook et al tend to ignore polling data in the Spring in favor of a mix of demographic data and past electoral returns.

But what I was getting at is that May-June polling data has to be treated with care if one is to predict behavior in November. So I prefer to have it filtered by a specialist operation such as CQ, Charlie Cook, Sabato or whomever. The raw figures are likely to be misapplied by nonprofessionals such as myself. (It’s not that the problem is intractable: one simply has to compare the predictive power of previous June polls with other datasets available at that time of year.)

[RTFirefly]

McCain is forked. Evidence: George Will on ABC’s This Week said “The next chance Hillary Clinton will have at the Democratic nomination is 2016.” Tacitly assuming that Obama will automatically get the nomination in 2012, because he’s president. No, that’s assuming McCain will win and be Prez for 2 terms. :rolleyes:

That’s the direct equivalent of saying that nobody had a chance to win the 2004 Dem nomination because GWB turned out to be a 2-term President.

How’s that burning?

[I_Love_Me_Vol.I]

Sadly, there will be no forking for Senator McCain. Sure, he’ll have his forkable moments during the campaign–even to the point where a mass forking frenzy will break out here on the Dope; Obama will go up by more then 10 points in the polls, and everyone (including me) will get very excited.

Then election ensues. John McCain is elected the next president.

I’ll be proudly voting for Obama and I would LOVE to eat my words on the day after the election.

[I_Love_Me_Vol.I]

@Quartz

They say that a week is a long time in politics, but I really don’t see how McCain can compete with Obama unless the latter makes a major gaffe. But I’m looking forward to finding out.

Obama made his major gaffe by being born black. That’s all it takes in the backward-looking, knuckle-dragging portions of our nation (which is most of it).

[MovieMogul]

I thought this letter to Andrew Sullivan really encapsulated McCain’s problem well:

Joyner says McCain is the more known commodity and Obama the lesser known, echoing a common theme among political insiders. Even the McCain campaign believes it to be true. To anyone outside the Washington bubble, though, this idea is total nonsense.

Over the past year, while McCain and the Republicans have sat on their hands and helplessly watched, Barack Obama has become an absolute pop culture and media sensation. America is literally obsessed with him. He’s a celebrity candidate who became a celebrity by running for president; he’s been discussed, debated, and argued over on television, in newspapers, in political magazines, in gossip magazines, on the internet, among every age group, every demographic, every race, and in every subset of American life. It’s easy to forget this when you’re refreshing Drudge and Halperin every two minutes as us junkies are wont to do, but when it comes to the non-political media, Barack Obama is a superstar, while McCain is a nonentity. He is barely even mentioned.

McCain had his chance to seize the narrative with both hands during the waning months of the Democratic primary. He failed. Thanks to HIllary’s campaign, Obama is as defined as he can be in the public consciousness, almost as much as Hillary and Bill Clinton at this point. Most primary campaigns fly under the radar, but this primary campaign was rated by Entertainment Weekly as the surprise TV hit of the season. What’s more, Hillary and Barack campaigned aggressively in all 50 states. McCain campaigned in about 10.

On top of all this, Obama has the lopsided money advantage, the lopsided enthusiasm advantage, the lopsided technology advantage, the lopsided earned media advantage, the lopsided paid media advantage, the lopsided volunteer and voter registration advantage, the lopsided issue advantage, the lopsided party advantage, and the lopsided ground army advantage. It’s too late for John McCain to “define” Barack Obama. That ship has sailed. In fact, it’s Obama who is very quickly defining McCain. Political insiders who have “known” John McCain since 2000 forget that the vast majority of voters have a very hazy memory of that primary election, if they have any at all. In fact, I’d guess that most voters have two impressions of John McCain: that he is old, and that he is a full-throated supporter of the Iraq war. And nothing he has done so far in the campaign has remotely challenged those impressions.

[Bosstone]

That letter seems pretty spot on. I’ve said it before, if Obama were white, the election would be the biggest landslide in history. The only thing McCain has going for him at this point is he’s a white male. That’s enough to make it a close race.

[John_Mace]

@Bosstone

That letter seems pretty spot on. I’ve said it before, if Obama were white, the election would be the biggest landslide in history.

That’s a laugh. If Obama was White, he’d be just be another freshman Senator who can give a good speech. He stands out because of his race, not despite it. There was almost no difference in his proposed policies vs those of Clinton or Edwards.

The only thing McCain has going for him at this point is he’s a white male. That’s enough to make it a close race.

So, the 40-odd % of the electorate who support him are racists? Got it. :rolleyes:

[Measure_for_Measure]

@John Mace

If Obama was White, he’d be just be another freshman Senator who can give a good speech.

I disagree. Obama is the best orator of the past couple of generations. I expect imitators. He has also shown the ability to pull a fair amount of support from those who think that they disagree with him on certain points, but believe he nonetheless deserves trust. This flows from his oratorical style, which takes pains to engage with best aspects of the listener’s ideas, but then suggests that there are other ways of looking at the issue at hand.

Where Bill Clinton’s centrist instincts took the form of triangulation, Obama prefers to look for ways of actually engaging with a segment of the opposition, at times winning them over. Or at least that was his Modus operandi in the Illinois legislature.

The man is political gold. His biography is only part of his appeal.

[Liberal]

@John Mace

If Obama was White, he’d be just be another freshman Senator who can give a good speech. He stands out because of his race, not despite it. There was almost no difference in his proposed policies vs those of Clinton or Edwards.

Despite what McCain might say, the war in Iraq actually is a pretty big deal. It costs a lot of money, kills a lot of people, and hasn’t done anything good for anyone other than a few wealthy fatcats.

[Hail_Ants]

Obama’s support and image and whole “pop-culture phenom” status is way over-blown because the media are so self-enamored just by the idea of a black president (and deluded by their flaming Bush hatred) that him being elected is almost a foregone conclusion to them. They’ve created this reality-distortion bubble of reporting which they’re happily living inside of.

Well, the Obama bubble is going to burst on election night.

No one wins the US presidency without the South and Obama will not win there. Not just because he’s black, but because he’s a black, Northern, liberal Democrat. He will not win any of the deep South, nor will he win Florida, certainly not Texas, nor the Mid-West.

He’ll win New York (because of NYC), Mass, Illinois, New Jersey, a couple others and maybe, MAYBE California. That’s it. He will be resoundly defeated in the Electoral College.

[Liberal]

@Hail Ants

Obama’s support and image and whole “pop-culture phenom” status is way over-blown because the media are so self-enamored just by the idea of a black president (and deluded by their flaming Bush hatred) that him being elected is almost a foregone conclusion to them. They’ve created this reality-distortion bubble of reporting which they’re happily living inside of.

Well, the Obama bubble is going to burst on election night.

No one wins the US presidency without the South and Obama will not win there. Not just because he’s black, but because he’s a black, Northern, liberal Democrat. He will not win any of the deep South, nor will he win Florida, certainly not Texas, nor the Mid-West.

He’ll win New York (because of NYC), Mass, Illinois, New Jersey, a couple others and maybe, MAYBE California. That’s it. He will be resoundly defeated in the Electoral College.

The wife and I are heading to Vegas this summer. How will we fare?

[John_Mace]

@Liberal

Despite what McCain might say, the war in Iraq actually is a pretty big deal. It costs a lot of money, kills a lot of people, and hasn’t done anything good for anyone other than a few wealthy fatcats.

I honestly have no idea what that had to do with my post, which you were responding to.

[Liberal]

@John Mace

I honestly have no idea what that had to do with my post, which you were responding to.

You wrote: “There was almost no difference in his proposed policies vs those of Clinton or Edwards”. He differed with them (especially Clinton, although Edwards eventually changed his mind) about the war. I felt that the war in Iraq was not so insignificant an issue as to dismiss it under the heading of almost no difference. Thus, my response. Is it clearer now?