OK. But that’s why I wrote “proposed”. What they were proposing to do as president was pretty much the same thing-- get out fast.
Well, McCain’s getting closer. It’s a four-year plan now.
I’ll be dumbfounded if president Obama can fulfill his campaign pledge on the Iraq war. But he (and Clinton) left enough wiggle room in the fine print to technically say he has even if we’re still fighting over there when his first term is up.
I would very gladly love to put a wager on that…
Surely this apparent Ron Paul endorsement of Barr isn’t going to help McCain. And Paul will get some media coverage during the GOP convention with his planned seperate show.
Maybe it is time for just a cocktail fork?
I, too, would be interested in getting a piece of this action.
The states you’ve listed by name have 31, 12, 21, 15, and 55 EVs, respectively. The largest states where the polls show Obama up by 10+ at electoral-vote.com are Washington and Minnesota, with 11 and 10 EVs, so let’s suppose these are your ‘couple others.’ (He’s not going to win PA and OH while losing those two.) And of course I’m sure you agree Obama will win D.C.'s 3 EVs, which are easy to overlook.
Add those up, and we get 158 EVs. That’s your ceiling for Obama in the EC.
How about this for an even bet: if Obama wins at least 200 EVs in November, I win; if he wins 199 or fewer, you win. Interested?
Sounds about right to me. If I lose I’ll refrain from posting in GD for at least 3 months. If I win I’ll gloat mercilessly for at least that long!
(There’s an Alien vs Predator “Regardless of who wins We lose” joke in here somewhere…) 
No way Obama does that poorly barring any kind of tragic screw-up. Look at electoral-vote.com and he’s over 300 now. He doesn’t need the South to win because he’s got a lot of support in the West for some reason. Iowans also like him too. There are simply too many reasons why any Republican would lose this election. The House and Senate has been going left and that is expected to continue. I realize you’re going by your gut here, but it won’t happen. And remember, he could possibly win in VA. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed win, but he certainly won’t do any worse than Kerry. Do you think that Kerry was in any way more appealing? Kerry would win this election too, btw.
Unlike liberal think-tank Janenne Garafalo I’ll be the first to admit if I’m wrong.
Polls are one thing (internet ones especially), actually winning votes is another. Remember in '04 when exit polling all but proved Kerry had won, turned out to be wrong. And yes, I do think Kerry was more appealing. Or at least less of an unknown or risk.
I don’t think Obama is the anti-christ or anything, but I do think he’s way too much of a liberal to win the election. But the newsmedia (and media in general) want an Obama presidency. Badly. Both thru a combination of liberal guilt and Bush hatred. And its causing tremendous spin and slanted reporting. Not a vast left-wing conspiracy, just like-minded people, um, deluding themselves more and more.
Consequently I have to go with my gut!
You make a good point, but I’d also like to point out that the media will often get what it wants. The media made Al Gore seem pedantic and simply ripped into him for various different reasons. They made him into some kind of strange pompous liar. They completely ruined his chances.
I think that McCain is making a serious error in condemning the Supreme Court decision on Guantanamo detainees. This poll shows that 70% of Americans oppose imprisoning suspects there indefinitely without charges. He may feel pretty strongly that the Guantanamo Bay infinite detention is making America safer, but when you go against both the Supreme Court and the American public’s opinion, this cannot be a good political move. I think the writ of habeus corpus is an extremely important right to Americans and most of us would not want to be in the situation of the prisoners incarcerated in Gitmo. If I was him, I would have shut up about this particular issue. It sort of strikes me as the classic example of McCain’s alleged temper outbreaks.
Conventional polling is actually pretty good, especially when taken in aggregate. RCP’s final 2004 poll average had Bush up by 1.5%; actual was 2.5%.
Exit polling is a whole 'nother thing entirely, and isn’t meant to predict actual outcomes, but rather to show who did how well among which subgroups of the electorate - once normalized to the actual election results.
Anyhow, my half of the bet: if I lose our bet, I’ll send $25 to a charity of your choice. If I win, and Obama gets between 200-268 EVs, I won’t feel like gloating, so I’m not sure what I ‘win’ under that circumstance. But I’ll gloat if he wins the election, which I think he will. I think that’ll suffice. Does that sound good to you? If so, we’ve got a bet. 
Inttrade currently gives Obama a 61% chance of winning the general election - sounds like a buy to me. McCain gets 34.4%.
https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=37985&eventSelect=37985&updateList=true&showExpired=false#
Props to my ideological counterpart Hail Ants and also RTFirefly for making the bet (or at least entering discussions – I don’t want to claim that matters are sealed and finalized).
I encourage them to keep their word and note that doing so would earn some small and restrained bragging rights. Forecasting errors come with the territory, but putting one’s money et al on the line and keeping one’s word reflects strong character.
Er RTF: Yeah, the final polls may be pretty good, but this graph suggests to me that June polling is pretty noisy.
Thanks. Whether or not the proposal on the table is the bet Hail Ants and I make (I’m open to alternatives), he seems genuinely willing to back his convictions.
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Oh, I agree. My point had been that, on Election Day, the proper measure of the accuracy of polls is the final polling average (which is really quite good), and not the early exit polls on the day of the voting (which were way off in 2004, and also repeatedly so during the recently-concluded primary season).
But June polls? Lots of noise. Many people just haven’t gotten very far along in thinking about the candidates, and there’s still a lot of room to sway them. I still remember when Carter was up by 40(!) over Ford just after the 1976 Dem convention, but only won the election by the skin of his teeth.
Speaking of noise, the www.electoral-vote.com graph that Elvis puts so much weight on, will read 317-221 for Obama, as soon as they update Virginia from ‘tied’ to ‘barely Obama’ due to the most recent Rasmussen poll of that state.
I think the only significant thing it shows is that there’s no reason to believe that Obama will lose this election in the EC if he wins the popular vote by a few points. (Not saying it can’t happen, but there’s no reason to believe he’s particularly vulnerable to that possibility.) Other than that - well, it’s June, and November’s still a long, long way away.
But Elvis regards this as evidence, so I thought I’d get this into the thread for that reason.
Elvis has been quiet recently. You okay, man?
Someone was saying this just the other day, here. Good eye, that person.
Newsweek is giving Obama a 15 point lead in national polling. Whoa. Now it must be noted that Gallup is keeping it consistently between only 2 to 4 Obama depending on the day, and Rasmussen is also running in those closer parts. So this may be a what’s-up-with-Newsweek post, but still … whoa.
Mind you Obama is getting some of his hits now as he fully sets up for the general competition - he will get some dings for the appearance of a reversal on public financing (see those threads) and for his tacking a bit more to the middle on a variety of issues and McCain will use free media to paint Obama in a negative flip-flopping light as much as he can. It will tighten and surge and tighten again a few times over I’m guessing.
But still … 15 points? Whoa.
Oh, definitely. McCain should hit him on his flop-flops, fer sure, fer sure. Can’t have a president given to sudden reversals depending on whose knob he has to slobber. No question about that, need a straight talker who doesn’t bend to the political winds like a lost balloon.
For sure, that’s McBomb’s strong suit. Consistency! Yeppers. Hugh Bethca.
I think your article explains it pretty well. Obama is enjoying multiple bumps in multiple categories. That makes polling difficult unless you’re making sure you have a sampling that is across all the demographics and issues.
Fifteen points? Outlier. Way outlier.
My too-good-to-be-true-ometer is buzzing like mad, and whenever I hit the reset button, it just starts buzzing again.