I don’t think the North’s current response to the combined SK-US military drills is designed to get aid money. I mean, they wouldn’t refuse it obviously however I don’t think that is their “win” scenario here nor do I believe they necessarily expect it. But I think it’s more about cementing Kim’s internal legitimacy by showing he has the chops to respond aggressively to the most recent sanctions. The joint exercises provided a perfect opportunity for him to show he’s a hardliner and has to be taken seriously.
You know what the U.S. should do? They should find out exactly where Kim is and have a couple of F-22s buzz the building. No shots fired - just a couple of jets breaking the sound barrier 500 feet over his head.
Oh, yeah, because they couldn’t possibly see that as provocative! :rolleyes:
How would you feel about a foreign country sending fighter jets over *your *capital just for yucks?
I’d seriously reassess my nation’s air defenses, that’s for sure, along with my nation’s chances of winning a war against the people who sent the fighters. I’d also want to ask my leaders some very serious questions as to how this was possible.
The North Korean government is a bully, and you don’t beat bullies by giving in to them or ignoring them. You get them to blink first. If someone is acting crazy, you act even crazier. It’s called “brinkmanship”, and it’s something the U.S. used to be good at.
Which again raises the question of how everybody can get out of this situation. The sanctions aren’t going to get relaxed unless the nuclear program goes away and serious inspections resume because the government has proved it can’t be trusted. How can Kim agree to that and still sell a victory to anybody at home?
As far as his people are concerned, victory is whatever he says it is. Inspectors are whoever he says they are. He can spin any bullshit story he wants to explain things and no one will dare publicly doubt it.
If that were true this wouldn’t be happening. He needs to prove something to someone- elements of the military if not the whole public.
(bolding and underline added by me)
What is “this”? Nothing is happening. He’s spun up some bullshit to scare or anger his people about the US and the west yet again. Next week or the week after, he spin up some other bullshit to claim victory, and maybe he’ll squeeze something out of the US or SK as a bonus.
Testing nuclear weapons is nothing?
“this” is anything at all.
If he could spin magical victory BS out of anything to feed to his masses, there’d be no need to actually bluster quite so forcibly to the international community. He could conduct a simple missile test and claim the inevitable international non-response was a sign of victory.
But that’s not what he’s doing. Clearly, he doesn’t have the mystical mind control powers over his people some people claim he does.
That was two months ago. I’m referring to the to this latest round of bullshit and bluster about attacking the US.
And in reality, testing a nuke isn’t much of anything. It’s just another form of saber rattling. Pretty much everybody that has them tests them to make sure they work and to prove to their neighbors that they have them.
Didn’t Israeli jets do this exact thing to Assad not too long ago?
Someone should have mentioned that years ago, before someone first cut a deal with them that rewarded bad behavior.
The only hitch is that if someone screws up at the game we get conventional war at best, and possibly a nuclear exchange. That’s like Russian Roulette.
They’re all part of the same round of negotiating and blustering, which is the reason the tensions are so high. The February test resulted in new international sanctions, which leads to more melodramatic rhetoric from Kim, which leads to wargames and counter-rhetoric, which leads to missile redeployment, and on and on it goes.
I think you’re missing the point. North Korea first tested a nuclear weapon in 2006, and since then just about everybody has been trying to get them to give them up. They had some support from China in the past, but of late, even China has stated their opposition to this program and to further tests, and the Kim government isn’t listening. The fact that they defied China in February and that China seems kind of tired of all of this is also kind of important.
So… what, it’s unfair to get tired of this crap when it’s not even really working? You’re right that for a long time North Korea was rewarded for this kind of thing, and I’ve said in a bunch of DPRK-related threads that that’s part of the reason this is happening- it’s what worked for them in the past. But it’s not working for them now and it doesn’t look like they’re going to threaten their way into another aid bonanza this time.
Then let it be America’s way of saying “I have had enough your shit.” You might as well start somewhere. Obviously, the current policy of doing nothing isn’t really working.
No risk, no reward.
About 5 years ago, I think. And it worked, at least in the sense that Assad didn’t retaliate.
It’s not the US taking the risk this time, yet it’s the US expected to step up the rhetoric.
And no matter how people try to make analogies, there’s no clear analog for thousands of artillery pieces pointed at one of the 5 largest cities in the world.
We have to live in the real world where moralizing lessons about standing up to bullies have to be weighed against significant death and destruction for tens of millions of people.
I get your point, but I think U.S. soldiers in the region might have a different take on that. And the U.S. really doesn’t have to step up the rhetoric any further. The U.S. and other countries have been pretty clear what they want and what North Korea needs to do. The question is what will get them to listen.
“Moralizing lessons”? What do morals have to do with anything? I was talking about policy, not right or wrong.
The South Koreans have been living under a Sword of Damocles for 60 years now. What’s their game plan? How do they expect this to end? The only paths that seem open to me are that either North Korea will collapse, or they’ll be a war. What are they doing to implement either of those options? They can’t just shrug and pass the problem on to the next generation.
I’m going to nitpick slightly and pointed out that there have been wargames EVERY year since the armistice was signed, so no, the recent rhetoric did not “lead to” wargames, the wargames were already scheduled and should be about as surprising as whatever annual holiday/event you might care to name.
But does the DPRK know it’s no longer working?
That’s sort of what’s happening with increased sanctions (which is everyone, including China, saying “we’ve had enough of this shit”) and Obama pointedly NOT calling Corpulent Leader when the rest for a phone call was relayed through Dennis Rodman. We’re not coming to them anymore. This seems to be pissing them off.
Easy enough to say when it’s not YOUR life at risk. How generous you are with the lives of other people. Do you view them as human, or just pawns?
Also, very easy for you to say the US has to confront the bully - then, whatever goes wrong, it’s the fault of the US (again), right? How convenient. Ask someone to solve a problem and then spit in their face. Has it occurred to anyone that eventually the US will get tired of that?
So… you’re certain that Corupulent Leader will react in exactly the same manner as Assad? You’re willing to bet millions of lives on the outcome? And if you’re wrong, what will you do, say “I’m sorry”? Do you think that would fix the mess? It certainly won’t bring the dead back to life.
Actually, they’ve sort of shrugged and passed it on to the US.
And why not shrug and pass it on? Perhaps they think the Sword of Damocles overhead for the foreseeable future beats certain death today. It’s lasted 60 years, maybe it will last another 60 more?
Here:
That’s a moral judgment right there about the right or wrong action to take.
You’ve automatically precluded ignoring them because you don’t do that with bullies. That’s hardly a cogent policy position based on the political situation or history and one based more on a moral judgment of the right or wrong actions to take.
What are you talking about? There are always other options.
They seem less realistic NOW, but that’s with the benefit of hindsight and history. Hindsight is 20/20.
There have been numerous South Korean overtures to North Korea over the decades to attempt to reduce tensions and foster more cooperation and understanding between the countries, using the industrial park at Kaesong and allowing families separated by the conflict to reunite after decades apart.
To ask if South Korea has even attempted to address the situation at all ignores decades of history.
As for what they can do NOW, if there’s a war, SK doesn’t plan on being the party to begin it but does plan on being the party that ends it. Their entire defensive military posture rather assumes it, actually.
But deliberately antagonizing North Korea into starting a war is needlessly violent and destructive. It’s claiming that sawing off an arm is necessary to save a life when other treatment may be possible.