The civil war had easy demarcation lines. States were much more important entities then. It made sense to fight more for your state than your country to a lot of people, and it drew up battle lines, with each state being their own military power. The current conflict is much more intermixed – even in the most red and blue areas, there’s a significant amount of people from the other side. There are no clear and easy battle lines.
It’s going to be much more like an insurgency, but a complicated one at that. Right wing people are going to attack left wing protestors and the cops are going to allow it to happen. Left wing people, if they aren’t gigantic cowards, should start fighting back if this happens. This is one of those “leftists” and “liberals” divides – leftists will fight, but liberals will pat themselves on the back about how “violence is never the answer” while they’re ground into the dirt and thrown in gulags. We’ll see a lot more secret police type disappearances, and domestic terrorism committed by both sides. At some point it’s going to get ugly enough that the military may have to run a coup against their own government to stop the oppression but it’s unlikely. If anything like that happens the military may fracture and you may get some actual battles here and there, but I think it’s unlikely.
I kind of wish there were conditions for a civil war. Line up, kill a few million of each other, see what happens. At least we’d stand a chance then. But instead we’re just going to go into a progressively worse and more oppressive place as our country collapses around us and there will be no decisive way to get out of it.
Honestly, though, that depends where you are. Lots of places are in desperate need of things like skilled trades and nurses. The problem is that those are the cities, and not the rural rust belt.
No. You’re right about this. If you go to places like the Breitbart comments section, they hate EVs and never so much as mention Tesla. They like Elon, but they aren’t lifting a finger to help Tesla.
What do you see as the functional difference between the two?
Any “revolution” will have to deal with the fact that Trump is in charge of the military. Any action the revolutionaries can take that might actually topple the government will be sufficiently violent and disruptive that Trump will send the army in to break it up.
At that point, it’s either civil war, or just a massive massacre. Unless the Army joins the revolutionaries, I guess.
I’m not saying that no one can get a job anywhere. I’m saying that there isn’t a single entire country that exemplifies best practices for economic justice and social welfare, and all major countries are struggling significantly. Not just because “the economy is bad” but because of intractable problems.
“Nuke them” would be the probable response, both from MAGA and Trump. And I’d expect them to do it. Enthusiastically. They hate California, and I’ve heard people fantasize like that for years. Now they’ll finally have their chance to kill off the “liberal traitors”.
And yes, I’d expect the non-MAGA part of the nation to strongly disagree…but I’d also expect them to do nothing meaningful about it. The two main political factions in the US are “MAGA” and “Doormat”.
We’re already seeing persecution beyond that, with all the mass deportations and harassment of anyone brown. And it’ll get worse when Trump dies and a True Believer gets in. That’s when the open genocide will likely start.
People will be “fighting” the government and corporations (pretty much the same thing) and not each other. Fighting will mostly not be physical fighting.
Not if it’s concerted use of concentrated economic power, as the Tesla Takedown is magnificently demonstrating right now. Not if it’s nonviolent protest as exemplified in the US civil rights movement, etc. Not if it’s Anonymous fucking with the nazis’ shit. Viz also: Maidan Revolution.
Also, Trump is weak, and his White House Lawn Car Show demonstrated pathetic weakness, a lack of understanding what was happening with the Tesla Takedown, and general cluelessness. Low- to medium-grade fucking with Trump and TPTB is probably better than some big, grandiose “attack.”
Ok but you said the economy is t working well for average people. On my phone so I’m having trouble with the quote box
I’m just pointing out that there are places where, in my experience, it’s working just fine. Half my family is in the trades, and they have good union jobs with pensions and mostly they complain about how much overtime they’re expected to work. These are “turn 18, do a 4 year apprenticeship, and make 100k” jobs and according to my family they have trouble filling the slots. My contractor constantly complains he can’t get workers.
I can vibe with you on this. I worked for three years in a steel mill (as an interpreter, but I was getting dirty with the rest of them). You don’t need to have a college education to be in mill operation, maintenance, etc. If you can show up for work and do a decent job, then you have a decent job. More than decent. Young people going into the trades right now are making a smart choice, IMO.
The point I am unsuccessfully trying to make is that, at the country level, economies are not doing well. They are not able to take care of people across the board and keep them happy.
But none of that is going to take down the government. Trump doesn’t actually care if Tesla and Musk go tits-up. Non-violent protests won’t disrupt anything long enough to make the government collapse. Anonymous can embarrass people, but how much damage are they actually capable of doing? Can they collapse the US power grid? Can they shut off the entire banking industry? It would take actions on that scale to even have a chance of taking down the government.
The only thing I can imagine taking down the government without active violence on the part of the revolutionaries is a country-wide general strike, where at least 30% of the employed population simply refuses to work until things change, and combine that with crowds surrounding key government and infrastructure facilities, so that they are physically incapable of working properly.
And if that happens, Trump will order the army to attack them, as I said above. It ends in a massacre, or a civil war.
I just watched One Hundred Years of Solitude, about the Colombian civil war, when liberal militias fought like hell against the conservative government. It also shows the liberal politicians making a deal to sell out the revolution. If I didn’t mention that too, somebody would call me out on the omission. Although it was fictionalized, that was how the real Colombian civil war went.
I think it’s less about “winning” against the government right now than building a new base for power long-term. But in the short term, it can add to the burden that the incompetent and inept Trump regime must deal with and further reduce its effectiveness. Maybe by a lot.
Awesome! Then they’ll go tits up, and we’ll choose a new target to bring down. If Trump doesn’t care about that, either, then that will be a softer target.
Attack all the people striking, i.e., not doing anything in their homes?