Is this a valid marketing research argument?

Hi all,

I’m new to marketing research in general (I’m actually a Computer Science major) and is now preparing one for a real life need. So while doing research, I notice that a certain diploma course always has around x amount of applications per year.

Now some background about Singapore…after taking their GCE O levels, the kids (around 16 or 17 of age) will either go into Polytechnics to get diplomas and go to Junior Colleges in preparation for university. So let say this course, for the past few years, has an average of x amount of applications. Let say I want to propose a case, which is for the age group of 16 to 30, there are y amount of people interested in that course. Can I just set y to be x multiplied it by 14? Is that logical?

The reasoning is - all right, let’s say 2002 we have 500 people interested in the course and they are 16 years old. Now it is 2007, and they are 21 years old – they are in my target age group and hence should be counted.

Sorry, I really don’t know how to make this sounds any clearer. English’s not my first language.

It seems like the interest would differ from the time a person turns 16 until they turn 31. I don’t think you can do a linear relationship like that. Not to mention that in 2007, some of those 21 year olds will be dead, or moved away from your area of interest.

Unless you have some specific data that details the attrition rate of any age group’s interest over time, I think you will have difficulty building this into a valid claim.