That’s the closest thing to a semi-rational reason anyone will find.
His completion percentage stinks, but his yards per attempt is the same as Sanchez. What matters, the percentage of time you connect, or the yards you gain when you throw the ball?
Pro football has some other stats we can look at.
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (includes TDs and Int)
T - 6.3
O - 5.3
S - 5.9
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (Includes sack yardage)
T - 4.85
O - 4.73
S - 5.95
Interception Rate
T - 2.2%
O - 4.5%
S - 3.3%
Now, here’s Tebow’s Offense vs Orton’s Offense, and please recall that the Broncos traded Pro Bowl WR Lynch prior to starting Tebow
Points per game
T - 18.5
O - 21
Yards
T - 322.5
O - 303.6
Int/gm
T - 0.5
O - 1.4
Understand, I’m not saying he’s great, just that the performance of the offense, while he’s the QB, is not particularly bad. He gains some yardage, scores some points, keeps interceptions to a minimum. Yes, he doesn’t throw much, but when he does throw, his yards per attempt is respectable, his interception rate (per throw) is good, and he is a legitimate threat to run. That threat means defenses have to account for it, to the detriment of other schemes.
4.85 adjusted net yards per attempt would put Tebow at 31st in the league this year.
But Sanchez sucks. He was 27th/34 in yards per attempt that year, and Tebow was 28th. What does it accomplish if you can prove he was about as good as a guy who sucks? Sanchez is still with the Jets only because they’ve invested a lot of time and energy into him and just gave him a ridiculous contract extension despite his subpar play. If he walked in off the street tomorrow, they would not sign him. And call me unsurprised that a guy who bounces so many passes and throws so many others way out of bounds has a low interception rate.
His performance, however, is not very good. And it’s not very good in such a way that does not inspire you to think he’ll get better.
That’s nothing like respectable. 28 out of 34 is terrible.
As someone mentioned, if he were good enough to start he would be starting. There’s no conspiracy to keep him off the field.
It’s easy to forget that NFL coaches know more about football than all of us combined. As a writer for the Packers said, these coaches speak a language you wouldn’t even understand and pay attention to details and metrics that you didn’t even know existed. It’s a brutal game. If you don’t have it you are kicked to the curb and there is no room for players that may be taking a roster spot from someone possibly more talented simply because that player is a fan favorite or a real nice guy to have around.
Yeah, the interception numbers are selecting a bright spot out of context of the rest of the numbers.
If you watched the games from 2011 (or just saw the low completion rate), you’d realize why. He only passed when (1) he had a receiver absolutely wide open or (2) the Broncos were so far behind, he had little choice. Otherwise, he threw the ball well away from defenders.
The announcers sometimes even praised him for his ‘smart’ play in not turning the ball over by just throwing it away so often. Not screwing up is hardly the same as being good or even mediocre.
Also, the YPA numbers are misleading out of context. If you attempt and complete 1 pass for 20 yards, your percentage and YPA look great. But it’s only 1 pass. Tebow didn’t throw as much. There was that one Chiefs game last season when he threw 8 times the entire game. Outlier though it may be, most QBs throw that often every quarter and only rarely finish games with single digit attempts.
Saying Tebow is comparable to either Sanchez or Orton (again, a lot of people say both QBs suck) is not doing him any favors. It means he’s a reasonable NFL starting QB for teams who have no other choice. As I noted earlier, it doesn’t make him a legitimate QB, only a legitimate backup:
It’s true that NFL coaches can be very conservative and may choose to follow tradition instead of doing things that can bring second guesses. But the problem here isn’t tradition or the fact that Tebow is unconventional, it’s that he is very bad at passing.
The success of introducing some college read-option concepts for RGIII and Russell Wilson and, to a lesser extent, Colin Kaepernick and even Tebow himself also provides a counter-point. And backwards the other way with the Denver offense basically morphing into Manning’s old Colts offense.
If the player comes, the coaches will adapt.
It proves he’s about as good as a sucky starting NFL QB. Which means it’s kind of odd that no teams are expected to be interested in offering him a position of any kind. It’s also odd that half of the folks discussing his career suggest he quit being a QB. This season he was behind Sanchez who actually had a worse season than 2011, and still couldn’t get off the bench.
What I’m trying to get at is, even if you put Tebow in the bottom 25% of NFL QBs, those guys still get jobs, they still start, they get a chance to improve, they get lots of snaps with the first team. They’re not expected to change position or leave the game because of their rank incompetence, nor is it suggested they are given jobs because of their popularity instead of their ability as a player.
We do talk way too much about Tebow, given his body of work, but much of that talk is about how thoroughly awful he is, how he doesn’t belong on the field, when his body of work suggests he is as capable as others who are considered legitimate (if not good) QBs.
Seriously, have you ever watched Tebow throw a football? His throwing motion is atrocious. Even if he were to improve his accuracy, the amount of time it takes him to throw would still make him a bad passer - you can’t give that much time to the defense to see where you’re going with the ball. He simply has no real upside on the passing front. Without that, he has no real upside as a starting QB. As a backup, sure, you can trust him to come into a game midway through the 3rd quarter, not fuck up too horribly, and run some read option type stuff the defense didn’t prepare for, maybe hang on and win the game. But as a starter, the defense is prepared and without a real passing threat you’re not going to have success in the long run.
Yes, they are. Those QBs are out of a job the second that those teams can bring in someone else.
He had 11 games last season. In terms of points and yardage, his averages were basically the same as Orton’s, a touch less in scoring, a touch more in yardage. I’m going to put him the same as the Bronco’s overall, if you take my meaning.
The Broncos were 25th in the league in points and yardage, there were 7 teams worse than them in both categories. 7 teams with worse offenses than a Tebow lead offense.
If he’s as bad as you make him out to be, how does he have even this level of success? How long does it take NFL defenses to figure out how to deal with a shitty QB?
The Steelers didn’t figure him out, they gave up the following passes in losing their playoff game (in yards) 51, 30, 58, 40, 32(PI), and 80. You’d think with such an amateurish throwing motion, the best passing defense in the league would have done slightly better than that. I guess it’s all just luck, because he obviously doesn’t know what he’s doing.
If you’re going to compare him to some of the worst starters you might want to start looking at all the other backup quarterbacks that could be brought in without having to re-write the play book.
It just doesn’t appear that there’s any argument that will sway the Tebow lovers. I, for one, submit. Yes, you are right. There’s some sort of conspiracy against him because of (help me out here, is it because of his good Christian ways?), and it doesn’t have anything to do withy the fact that there are many NFL staple plays that he is unable to execute (who needs all those plays anyway?). So yes, you 2 or 3 people here are clearly onto something which has gone over the heads of all others, particularly those who make their living in the league, who live and breathe the sport 24/7/365.
You mean the “his throwing motion sucks” argument? Or the “his throws are so bad even the defense can’t catch it” argument? Sorry, I don’t find them convincing. The results on the field (not the win/loss, the points and yardage) belie the idea that he can’t play the position.
The reality is that putting him out there is a risk. NFL GMs and Coaches don’t want to take risks unless the payoff is stratospheric. The payoff with Tebow is likely mediocrity, not excellence, so he’s not getting an opportunity.
You are totally right. He is a great QB. He was ranked 31 out of 34 in total QBR in 2011 and the ones below him were on completely shitty teams. But you’re right he’s great.
I’m not sure comparing him to Orton is the way to convince anyone that Tebow should be a starter in the NFL. The simple fact of the matter is that Tebow is neither a great runner nor a great passer at the NFL level. He throws a good deep ball, and on those occasions when the the WR is wide open and can adjust to where the ball is, he can make huge game changing plays. That happened a lot in college, but it doesn’t happen as much in the NFL.
But what about his successes, you ask? We yes, when given a great running back, great defense and a kicker who can hit 50+ yarders with regularity, Tebow can win - sometimes. And against weaker teams for the most part. I will credit him with the big play against Pittsburgh, but the defense on that play was idiotic - as dumb as Denver’s defense against the Ravens on the game tier last week.
The thing is, Tebow’s incredible weakness in throwing short and mid-ranged passes means he can be shut down as long as the defense sticks to the plan. Take away the deep ball and make him win with sustained drives down the field, hitting short passes. He can’t do that. So, making Tebow your starter means you need to have a top notch running game, a shut down defense, and a game breaking deep threat at WR to succeed, and even then you would be dependent on Tebow hitting 3 or 4 big deep balls a game, which is not a winning strategy.
In fact, it is pretty much how the Jets have failed with Sanchez the past few years. Yes, Sanchez has had a few good games, and gotten to the AFCC twice, but when everything else isn’t perfect he isn’t good enough to carry the team for even a game or two. The same with Tebow. And as shown by the 3 game losing streak to end last season, including against such juggernauts as KC and Buffalo, the league has figured Tebow out. So making Tebow your quarterback means having all of the qualities mentioned above, redesigning your offense, and hoping Tim hits a couple of bombs each game. And if it all comes together, you probably are an 8-8 team.
He’s as good as a sucky starting QB who is going to lose his job and become a backup. Several of the guys who had stats comparable to Tebow’s in 2011 lost their jobs (Painter, Orton, Jackson, McCoy) and spent 2011 carrying clipboards, and the ones who didn’t get benched only kept their jobs because their teams had invested a lot of money in them (Sanchez, Kolb, Cassel) or because their teams were hoping against hope they would improve with one more year of experience before they were forced to go back to the drawing board (Gabbert). And they didn’t get better. The Jets are probably stuck with Sanchez because of the idiotic contract they gave him, but there’s a good chance none of the others will be starting next season.
It’s not odd at all. Why would you want to bring in a backup QB who forces you to revamp your offense?
Not for very long they don’t.
That would be a totally reasonable calculation. Do you think it isn’t?
The shifting of goalposts in the thread is interesting.
The stages of Tebow denialism in this thread so far:
- By talent, he’s a good starting NFL QB
- He has the potential to be a good starting NFL QB given a chance
- He’s a mediocre starting NFL QB
- He has the potential to be a mediocre starting NFL QB
- He’s a sucky starting NFL QB
I’m waiting for the inevitable concluding stages:
- He has the potential to be a sucky starting NFL QB
- He’s a reasonable backup QB
In reality he’s probably somewhere between 6 and 7, with an honest shot at “he’s athletically gifted but should play RB, FB, or TE rather than QB”.
No, I mean the fact that there are throws that he can’t make, particularly short and medium range. QB under center, 3 step drop, quick slant to the inside receiver. Or how about an out pattern, one that is predicated on timing and accuracy? If you get a chance, try and see how often all 4 QB’s this weekend make out passes, ones that range from 20 - 40 yards in the air (though some of them may only be 15 yards upfield, throwing to the sideline can add 20 yards or more), and often exact ball placement. This is a play that Tebow CAN NOT make. It’s tantamount to a shortstop being unable to complete a double play, or a point guard not having the skills to execute a pick and roll effectively.
One of the reasons why his yards per attempt is so high is because many of his completions would come on extended plays where he would scramble around the backfield for a while, wait until coverage started to break down, and then throw in the general direction of a receiver 40 yards downfield, who would have plenty of time to adjust to the flight of the ball. These are exciting plays when they happen, but they are absolutely not dependable enough around which to build a system.