As I’m sure all USAns here know, John McCain was recently diagnosed with a brain tumor. I don’t know how much this will impact his ability to function as a senator over the next few weeks, but it seems like even though his doctors are reporting no neurological side effects so far he’ll be undergoing aggressive treatment.
So what happens with the Senate vote on repealing (or repealing and replacing) the ACA? Can he cast his vote from Arizona? If he can’t vote, does McConnell still need 51 votes (including Pence’s if needed)? Does this mean that if all Dems vote against it as expected, the Pubs can’t have more than one Pub senator vote against it?
If he decides to step down from his position as a senator, what happens? I know that in Illinois the Governor can appoint someone to take the seat – this is a large part of the reason why “I’ve got this thing, it’s f***ing golden” Blago is in jail now – but I don’t know if that process varies from state to state.
As with most States the Governor will appoint a replacement until the next election in 2018. Arizona is unique as far as I can tell in that state law requires the new appointee to be of the same political party as the departing Senator.
If I understand correctly - Republicans hold 52 seats, so if 2 Republicans (and all Democrats) vote against a bill, the vote is 50-50, Pence breaks the tie, the bill passes. It takes 3 Republican defectors to kill the bill.
But if McCain doesn’t vote at all, and 2 Republicans vote against a bill, the vote becomes 49-50. The bill does not pass.
Arizona went for the Medicaid expansion in a big way, the governor has been pushing both senators pretty hard on the issue. I can’t see him appointing anyone who would support the ACA repeal.
The prognosis is pretty grim. I had a co-worker (and friend) who developed glioblastoma in his 40s. One day he called in sick. Never came back in to work, six months later we were at his memorial service.
6 months is a long time in political years. If he does not resign, a lot can change in that time. It will be an election year by then. If he does resign, he would be doing Trump a favour…his decision.
And of course, he happens to have gold-plated health care if he decides to use the senate plan, instead of VA.
How do you enforce a law that restricts the appointment to members of the party? I’ll move to AZ and join the Republican party if the governor would appoint me to the senate.
Average survival after diagnosis of glioblastoma is 13 months. My brother died 14 months after his diagnosis.
AZ is one of 28 states that allow you to register as a member of a political party. I’d imagine that anyone who was NOT registered as a Republican would not be appointable. It’s possible that the qualification bar is set higher, like requiring some kind of formal joining or monetary support of the party; but the voter registration certainly provides a starting point.
I’ve heard of states where the state party organization draws up a shortlist of a half-dozen candidates or so, and the governor must pick one of those. I don’t know if that’s how Arizona does it, though.
There is no “senate health plan.” The ACA contained a clause that all members of Congress and most staffers can only sign up for health care on the DC exchange. If they sign up for a gold level plan, the government pays 72% of their premiums. In other words, they sign up for the same health care that is available to any resident of DC.
Probably pretty hard. And for some states, impossible. One of the primary gotchas with Obamacare - it just tries to regulate private insurance companies, but provides no guarantees that a company will actually be available in a given area.