The thing is, Trump supporters say these things too. If you are in a bubble of likeminded people, it is really hard to tell how everyone else thinks.
“How could Nixon have won? Nobody I know voted for him!”
The polls are generally correct. Just as they were in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004… You’re talking about wishes, not reality.
The polls have been less and less accurate every year since the smartphone revolution, and in 2022 they were flat wrong. Moreover, in previous cycles we didn’t have one party overtly flooding the zone with biased polls, and even the ostensibly unbiased polls are controlled by corporations owned by pro-Trump billionaires who have demonstrated their willingness to put their thumb on the scale in order to generate the illusion of a competitive race. It’s a sunny day, 78 degrees, the humidity is low, the pressure is high, there are no clouds on the horizon or anywhere on radar, and the polls are declaring it’s gonna snow tomorrow.
Literally the opposite of what I said.
The thing is, they’re observably wrong.
No, they have not, at least not in Presidential elections.
None of what you said is true. The polls are about as accurate as they always have been. They were particularly accurate in 2022. Flooding the polls is a non-factor. And there is the same amount of evidence that Trump supporters are wrong as their are Harris supporters are…
Which is why President Clinton is wrapping up her second term now, after she defeated President Romney’s reelection campaign, right?
I, too, remember how the Republicans won a 50-seat House majority that year.
The polls in both 2012 and 2016 were very, very close to what ended up happening. (I’m not sure where you got the idea Romney was ahead, that’s weird.) And 2020, close once again. Next week will be close, and I’ll bet on it.
Which polls said that was going to happen?
All of them. Have we forgotten the “red tsunami” so soon?
So it should be easy to find examples? But it isn’t because the polls didn’t say that. People who ignored the polls and listened to the “vibes” predicted that. Just like you are doing now. Ignoring the polls for the narrative you like.
In reality the polls were on point of what happened.
A powerlifter that “generally”! They “generally” are not right on the money. They “generally” are off a few. That’s pretty good. And “generally” they are off in no specific direction but “generally” they haven’t been off in the same direction more than twice in row. Generally.
Close. Trump sweeping swing states. Harris sweeping swing states. All are in the general range of the current polls.
“The polls were more accurate than ever” says the guy who makes a living off of polls. You’ll forgive my skepticism.
I believe the observable facts of the enthusiasm gap and the thousands of Republicans endorsing Harris more than I believe a newspaper owned by a man who engaged in quid pro quo to block an endorsement for Harris, because they asked 500 Baby Boomers who were gullible enough to answer a cold call in the year 2024 and therefore know that this is the closest presidential race ever since the last one.
Electoral-vote.com’s final prediction for 2016; Clinton 323, Trump 215.
2020: Biden 368, Trump 170.
I won’t, actually.
There’s a difference between skepticism and willful ignorance.
{“Wow… I’m sexually aroused, Commander” – Lt Daniel Kaffee}
Not to take away from the “is polling broken” conversation, but can you let us know, is there any reason why we should trust this Bouzy guy over any of the other prognosticators that have it “too close to call”?
“Willful ignorance” is clinging to obsolete pseudoscience when every observable fact says otherwise.
Moderating:
Please take the polling discussion to a more on-topic thread. It’s been more than enough in this one. Thanks.