Lose PA GA and NC and Trump has 270. NC leans to Trump. It’s currently looking like GA is with two polls in a row. Agree that PA this close is scary, NOT very good news.
Scary indeed. I almost used that word in my post, but I didn’t want to accused of being “pessimistic.”
I am optimistic, thrilled, enthused, overjoyed…and scared.
(I assume you meant to type something like “Georgia is looking unlikely” or perhaps “out of reach” or “can’t be counted on”).
How much of the PA and AZ deficits are sour grapes over the VP selection?
Good question. I wouldn’t say AZ has a “deficit” — it’s right where I would have predicted as soon as Biden dropped out.
As for PA, great question. If Harris ends up losing the election, and it’s because she lost PA, this will be debated further. (Not so much “sour grapes,” as a missed opportunity to attract a few more voters.)
One of the Nates (Cohn or Silver) wrote that not picking Shapiro was a big mistake, for this very reason. Yes, it’s true that the state-scale (as opposed to region, say) “favorite son/daughter” effect of VP picks historically has been small…but small (even a few thousand votes) might make all the difference this time.
(I love Walz, and understand completely why he was chosen, so I really hope this doesn’t end up being a factor).
Honestly, about 2 weeks from now after the Democratic National Convention bump has leveled off is when I think the polls start getting serious.
At that point we’ll see how well Harris-Walz are keeping up momentum. I think the polls will mean a lot more by then.
But I do think the overall polling is trending up for Harris and that is the good news. States are in play now that weren’t when Biden was on top of ticket. That is good news.
I can’t imagine you’d punish Harris because she didn’t pick the local guy. Maybe you’d tell pollsters something like that to make a point. But If I lived in one of those states and she passed on Shapiro and Kelley, I’d walk through hot coals to vote for Harris/Walz.
Meant also is leaning to Trump.
I am still quite optimistic though for the same reason I was pessimistic about Biden. While Trump is not down as much as Biden was he is down. My pessimism was that after the debate I did not see Biden as being able to rally to a comeback. I also have a hard time seeing Trump up his game in any meaningful way. He will I am fairly sure stay near his floor. And Harris should stay above hers. It is scary to me that it is close though.
There was no perfect VP choice though. 
For sure.
Agreed.
Please don’t go too far down the VP choice stuff, that has its own thread: Kamala Harris's choice of Tim Walz as VP
It was pretty well hashed over in that one, but any more does belong there if anywhere.
If sour grapes is the cause for lower polling in PA and AZ, I think that is good news for Harris. Those voters can be charmed back with the help of Shapiro and Kelly.
ETA: I see the mod note, but my comment is about current polling.
To put things in perspective:
According to Nate Silver, PA is up 5.9% for Dems over the past month, GA is up 6.3% and AZ is up 9.7%. In the past week alone, PA has ticked up slightly for Harris, and AZ has gone up 1.5%.
The swing is real, and we haven’t even had the prime time DNC yet, or the debates which will further expose Donald (and Vance) to the country. Heck, it’s August, most people aren’t paying a lick of attention to what’s going on yet. I mean, we are. We post and comment every time there’s a new poll, but most people aren’t watching or reading the news right now. The most engaged people (those who pay attention even in the middle of summer) have swung the polls toward Harris. Imagine what may happen once the general public starts tuning in, listening to Harris, gets to meet Walz, sees the same ol’ bullshit that Trump spews (and how much worse he actually has become), and see what a freakshow misogynist Vance is. Once Obama starts campaigning, look out.
Young people are fired up right now, older people are turning away from Trump. Those are good things.
I’m not saying don’t be concerned, but let’s not be scared. Things are swinging in the right direction in the right places. One or two polls aren’t the end-all-be-all.
Both Shaprio and Kelly are serving as surrogates in their states for the Harris-Walz campaign. In those roles, they should both be fair game for discussion in this thread.
Right, not what my note said. A few posts were beginning to second guess the VP choice, that isn’t best suited for this thread is all.
How they add to the campaign is completely fit for this thread.
I agreed with your terrific post right up until this.
Those of us in this thread advising caution are the ones looking at multiple polls. It’s the ones who are too sure of a Harris victory who are considering just one poll at a time.
I think there is only one poster that fits that description. So “ones” is probably overstating it.
Is that assuming all Nebraska’s votes go to Trump? The 2nd District vote is very winnable for Harris.
I don’t anticipate a big bump for the DNC convention. Maybe a point and some change. Another dependable bump if/when interest rate declines are announced by the Fed in September. That’s pretty much all that can be counted upon at this point. Harris could do poorly in the debates and that could hurt her, but I don’t see wins by her in the debates moving the needle much at all. She just needs to make sure she doesn’t commit any unforced errors.
I was looking this morning at 538’s national polls over the last few months and was curious about the timing of Kamala solidifying her lead. It happened at the very end of July. This was after Vance but before Walz were picked for their respective tickets.
Specifically, it looks like polls that were active from July 30 and on are part of the “solid national edge” set.
July 31 was Trump’s disastrous NABJ appearance. Might that be it? Am I failing to remember something else? Or is the timing of the shift not super relevant and is just a reflection of a natural trend?
It depends. If Trump lights an epic dumpster fire of a performance—unusually deranged, even for him—I think it could have a significant impact. It could be his own “Biden debate” debacle.
The diehard MAGAs won’t care, of course. But a stark comparison between a vital, articulate, positive, visionary Harris and a deranged weirdo can help cement the momentum. And I’ll emphasize again, I’m not talking about normal Trump word salad. I’m talking about an entirely possible meltdown. He is suddenly politically vulnerable in a way he has never been.