I don’t know about that. Remember what the previous debate did to both Biden and Trump. The race went from a tossup to a clear Trump lead.
You can’t read too much into timing at that granular of a level. Polls typically take a couple weeks or more to gather the data, so it’s not point in time.
Rather than Trump win, I saw that as a Biden loss. As in his performance was so bad that it made a difference. As everybody noted at the time, the substance of the debate didn’t matter at all. Nobody was actually scoring on the merits.
Harris ‘winning’ in a normal debate fashion won’t move the needle. Not for more than a day or two after until the next thing in the news cycle takes other. Winning debates is about style, not substance. But Trump having an epic meltdown during the debate absolutely could make a sustained difference, just as Biden’s bad night made a critical difference to his campaign.
The typical (for Trump) rambling word salad won’t do much. People have seen and heard that too many times now. But if he were to totally lose control in an incoherent, mouth frothing way, that could make a difference with a lot of people.
Nobody really wins these debates. But it’s definitely possible to lose one.
Lloyd Bentsen won the 1988 VP debate:
“I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”
Didn’t win the election, but he helped to tag Quayle as a lightweight for the rest of his career.
Today’s Chicago Trib had a full page ad criticizing Shapiro, saying he was the least effective governor in a state w/ divided legislature. I didn’t read it too carefully, but it sure seemed odd. I guess it was in this week’s Chicago paper b/c of the convention…
What about the two million or so freshly minted 18 year-olds arriving on college campuses in the next few weeks? No doubt, they will all be approached by Harris volunteers and encouraged to register to vote.
For sure!
I want her to say
“I hear that Trump is claiming that he is better looking than I am. Well, I don’t know if that’s true, I’m just glad that this isn’t a beauty pageant. We’re in a presidential election and what is important is what my administration can do for this country”.
Especially considering his sketchy record with beauty pageants.
Take from those of us with eyes, Kamala, it’s not.
It’s Trump’s weird way of saying he has the hots for Kamala, and it would just be so much better if she could like him back. Kamala is a smart woman, though, and doesn’t fall for his shenanigans.
I don’t disagree with the outcome, but feel that the likelihood of such a poor performance happening isn’t great. Trump will more likely stick with the tactic of repeating the usual lies and exaggerations with no regard to what the question was. And as for keeping internalised the rage he feels for any slight (real or imagined), he can probably manage that on camera - he didn’t totally flip out in a New York courtroom when Michael Cohen was describing him in very unflattering terms, for instance.
Would be amazing if he did totally wig out, of course, but I would never bank on it.
I dunno. I think he’s closer to a breaking point than he has ever been. He’s operated in his normal comfort zone of hateful nonsense up till now. Now, he’s terrified and in a panic. I don’t guarantee an epic meltdown, but I don’t think it’s unlikely.
That was in front of a judge who could toss him in the clink for contempt. Debate moderators don’t have that power.
And who had already rebuked him several times for misbehavior in the courtroom.
I’d love for you to be uncannily prescient in picking this. Fingers crossed!
Fail to forget how Obama burned Willard’s ass with two words, “do continue”. That left a lasting mark.
I want her to have a confounded expression while he is blorting, like what the, and when she talks after him, she should say, “Well, that was weird. But, as to the actual question …”
Besides which, it just feels wrong to never have the two presidential contenders on the same stage to directly compare them. I know it hasn’t always happened, but these days, it just does, at least to me.
A few people remember zingers. But did it really change the trajectory of the race? Didn’t really seem like it at the time. Romney had much more serious issues than a one liner tossed off during a debate where neither candidate really covered themselves with glory (though Obama did perform a bit better in that bout than Romney).
Sure, I’d love for Harris to toss off a few good quips. But some witty bon mots aren’t going to get people to come out to the polls or change their minds.
But an abjectly terrible performance can absolutely turn people off. I’m still not convinced a good debate performance can win a candidate an election. But I’m certain a bad performance can lose one.
Just in the interest of factual accuracy, if you’re referring to what I think you’re referring to, Obama’s little verbal trap was actually sprung with the words “please proceed,” not do continue (cite).
And while I agree that this was not memorable enough to stand out as a “you’re no Kennedy” type zinger, I also believe that it very effectively punctured Romney’s attempt to set up Benghazi as a resonant campaign talking point, considering that he abandoned whatever he was planning to say in that moment and didn’t bring it back up again during the third debate. So it was a hinge point that did change the trajectory of the campaign, subtly but meaningfully.