Assume 5% of GOP female voters switch parties. I think that would result in a 2 point net gain for the democrats.
Not tiny, but due to gerrymandering the democrats need a 7 point margin just to break even in the house.
If that assumption and if your math is right then remember this would be on top of the existing stable polling numbers, which has been D+7 to 8 give or take. A 2 point net gain wold be very significant there.
That said I think it is more complicated. GOP voting women are no more a monolithic bloc than many other groups and vary by region and other factors. Losing suburbs more will likely happen, cities already lost, but rural districts with non-college educated populations? More increase turnout of GOP leaners who were not so enthused before than switchers I think.
Spending the weekend with my Trump supporting family. They don’t care about additional accusers or evidence. They don’t care if all of the allegations are true. They would still confirm Kavanaugh and oppose his removal if it was proven he committed rape. This is not interpretation, this is what my brother told me in the last 24 hours after he cheered repeatedly during Collins’ speech.
My absolute favorite discussion from the weekend with Trump supporting family is how they all agreed it was good that the Republicans pulled that “lady prosecutor” out because she was getting too close to getting information that could hurt Kavanaugh’s chances.
The “Everything Trump touches dies” narrative for righties takes a hit with a Kavanaugh confirmation. I don’t know why Rick Wilson persisted with that tag line after Gorsuch was appointed early on. Because of it I think Republicans are boosted by conservatives disenchanted with the Trump and the party who may have been less likely to turn out or would have voted third party.
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Doesn’t Democrat Party gerrymandering offset Republican Party gerrymandering?
I have to believe it’s highly improbable more than a fraction of a percent of GOP women will leave the GOP. Sure, there are some GOP women disgusted by Kavanaugh, but most of the GOP women I know are backing him and calling Ford a liar. Even those disgusted GOP women won’t switch parties over this. They were willing to Trump a few weeks after he admitted to sexually harassing/assaulting women. They’re not going anywhere.
No, and neither does Democratic Party gerrymandering.
I’m not sure how it will affect the midterms, but I think the Swetnick allegation was a jump the shark moment and probably hurt more than help. And I think it is going to hurt Avenatti’s presidential aspirations bigtime.
It’s OK for Democrats to gerrymander, but it’s not OK for Republicans to gerrymander because…
It seems to me that the Democrat Party is actually in a position to actually do something about reducing gerrymandering if they started by undoing their own gerrymandering. You know, setting a good example kind-of-thing.
I har f Democra gerrymand effective*:
(*Or, for those of us that write complete English words, “it’s harder for Democrats to gerrymander effectively.”)
(Yes, that article does point out that Democrats have been known to gerrymander when they can – if that was what doorhinge was trying to say, okay, then. But it doesn’t come close to “offsetting” it).
Well, there went the vote, just watched it live.
While we will have to see how he finds his place on the court this will probably now impact the midterms in the Democrats favor as the losing party typically does have far more impact.
In general and despite all of the partisan politics it is quite clear that breaking down the hard partisan stance and working to get back to a model where compromise is a part of the process is what will be required for our country to survive in the long term. The model that the Republican leadership enforced to gain power in the 1990s will not lead to long term success for our country.
I feel even had the vote results being the same that the Republicans having acted in good faith with research would have mitigated the costs that they are most likely to pay during the midterms and would have helped heal the country.
In general it seems that it is a rarity when any discussions in congress or even on this board are held in good faith. People are absolutely focused on winning the battles at the cost of the war.
I think the whole Kavanaugh debacle has fired up the Republican electorate just as much, if not more so, as the Democratic one.
Trump’s supporters feed off of “liberal tears.” This is their manna from heaven. The more that liberals scream and protest and beat their chests in rage over whatever bit of Republican bullshit happens to be in the news, the more this fills the Republicans with pride and motivation. This goes beyond politics, into the realm of psychology. It’s kind of like how the kid who reacts most emotionally to bullying will continue to get bullied because he’s giving the bullies what they want. Seeing lots of Democrats get outraged about Kavanaugh gives them the same kind of satisfaction and frankly makes them want to inflict more of it.
Yes, but rat avatar is not the only one pointing out that the losing side typically does have far more impact in midterms.
I suspect that many of those women rationalize (and perhaps even really believe) that god approves of men sexually abusing/assaulting women.
As for the effect on the polls, Republicans were upset that women had the temerity to accuse their appointee of anything, so polling reflected that. But give them a week or so, and their poll numbers will go back to what they were before this. They won the appointment vote, so they’ll lapse into complacency, more or less.