This was posted in the Pit in the Trump Clusterfuck thread, but my response there is hijack, so I thought I’d move it here:
So if he dies, who takes over? Is there another Kim warmed up in the bullpen? The younger sister doesn’t seem ready for prime time. Would this be the end of the Kim Dynasty in North Korea? Will the generals get behind just one of their own or does North Korea* descend into civil war?
*Edit from original is for Robot Arm. Yes, technically, Korea is already in an arrested state of civil war.
If he dies, I think Don the Con will put on a show of wailing and gnashing of teeth worthy of a North Korean newscaster.
So it looks like they might get their first female leader. I’m not terribly up on the size of the family, but are they in danger of running out of Kims?
Supposedly his sister, who is next in line, is just as bad.
To Un’s ‘credit’ he seems to have shaken up and purged a lot of higher ups which probably lead to fear and subservience among those people. If his sister isn’t as good as politics it could lead to more of an uprising within the higher ranks.
Of course who knows what would come next. Hard to imagine that it would be worse. But…
The army is nearly as starving as the rest of the population. So that would be a weird fight.
I suspect a puppet ‘Kim’, perhaps his sister. While the NK media convinces the ‘country’ that Kim is on his mountain top overlooking and taking care of them all.
I don’t know much about North Korea, but I would suspect that in a patriarchal society like that, having a woman in charge would put her in more precarious a position than a man. She would more prone to having factions whispering about having her deposed at the slightest sign of any incompetent or weak leadership. Which, in turn, could make her hyper-sensitive and prone to cracking down in all the more bloody fashion.
I wasn’t aware that he had any young’Uns. Not officially recognized? What’s up with that? One would think that the birth of one of his children would be greeted with jewels blossoming on trees and birds flying in formation to create hearts. No announcements on children? Why not?
In the old days some Kings started their reign at a very young age but they had a regent and others who really ran the show until the king was around 18. For example Louis XIV of France served from age of 5 until he died at 76. Queen Liz has reigned for 68 years so she might beat that record. Louis XV also took the throne at age 5
There are two techniques in the family playbook for dealing with internal threats to power. One is cracking down and purging internally. That is more direct. It has the problem that you need to be sufficiently strong to do it. Otherwise it may just instigate the internal threat into action. The other is showing strength against external enemies. Sometimes that is just shows of strength without direct attacks. Sometimes that involves dead South Koreans. It may be easier for a North Korean leader to implement since it focuses the attention of the internal threats on the international threat to all of them. The dangers of that level of brinksmanship should be obvious.
Kim Jong Un was in charge of one of the most serious incidents since the armistice. That is the artillery strikes on the island of Yeonpyeong. That was widely seen as an attempt to establish him with the military in preparation for his transition to power. A sister without the benefit of a planned early transition prep and lots of internal grumbling may be extra motivated to strike South Korea early and often. Hopefully we can avoid that.
A Chinese medical team has been sent to North Korea, reminiscent of the time when Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke back in 2008. Whether he’s dead or not, it’s apparently pretty damn serious.
I wouldn’t believe rumors coming out of North Korea. Rumors coming out of China and pre-Invasion Iraq were more believable (both societies are/were more “open”) and were frequently untrue.