Well, like I said, anything is possible. Kinky could have a Ross Perot kind of meltdown. Hell, he may not even be able to get enough signatures in the short time the state allows. You just never know.
Ah well. Meet back here in November?
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Absolutely.
More controversial than Friedman’s?
That was a while back. Now his plan has changed somewhat:
Kinky is an amusing novelty act, but he seems more interested in having fun than winning. Strayhorn’s entry into the race really dimished his appeal as a protest. Now Strayhorn will play to the dissatisfied GOP voters.
Her candidacy may even hurt his chances of getting on the ballot. Both have to get 50,000 signatures of registered voters of people who did not vote in a party primary between March and (I think…July?)
It usually requires getting 4 or 5 times that many to make sure you qualify (a lot of unregistered voters, primary voters, or Mickey Mouses sign). I am unsure whether they can have the same names on their petition (I read about that, but I am drawing a blank).
Also working against an insurgent candidate are Texas voter registration laws. Ventura soared ahead in the polls late by convincing a bunch of disgruntled citizens to use Minnesota’s last minute voter registration. Texas requires you register 30 days before an election. That would mean Kinky would have to motivate the unmotivated TWICE. It just doesn’t happen in politics (why anyone in this country with a driver’s license is unregistered to vote is beyond me!).
Perry is weak, but his popularity recovered considerably during Katrina and Rita. I like his crack down on tort lawyers, but other than that I was really hoping Hutchison was going to take him on.
For me, it is either Perry or Kinky. Strayhorn and Bell/Gammage get too much money from mass tort attorneys to get my support. Perry rubs me the wrong way with his inability to fix public education and his over the top intolerance of gays, so I may throw a symbolic protest vote at ole’ Kinky.
I think there is an outside shot Strayhorn (who is the mother of WH Spokesman Scott McClellan) could play spoiler, but that would only allow the Democratic Candidate to win (I predict it will be former Congressman Chris Bell). The DEMS have a pretty solid 40%. Maybe a little more by 2006. If Strayhorn can siphon off enough votes from Perry (she’s been a successful state official), that 40% may be enough.
But for now my prediction:
Perry- 43
Bell- 41
Strayhorn- 10
Kinky- 5
Other- 1
A plurality carries the day in Texas.
Again, the polls showed back a few months
Perry* (R)
42%
Bell (D)
27%
Friedman (I)
21%
and that was just polling voters who voted last time…what, 27% of the total
I dont think either Perry or Bell will be able to pick up enough of the previous undecided voters to make your scenario realistic.
I do think Kinky can pick up a lot of those undecided voters, and I don’t see him losing any of the ones he already has. Reminds me of the Freak Power party when Hunter Thompson almost picked up Sherrif In aspen because nobody thought he could come close.
Any poll without Strayhorn as an Independent is unreliable. I think a good portion of those Kinky voters will jump to Strayhorn. Strayhorn is a main stream candidate. Kinky is the frontman for the “Texas Jewboys.” She’ll get the Lionshare of the “somebody else” vote.
Also, Bell will get a larger number of the votes once he (or Gammage) wins the DEM nomination. The problem with early polls is that they are basically name recognition. For the same reason the polls currently show Rudy Guiliani as the GOP 2008 Frontrunner.
No one outside the Houston area knows who Chris Bell is. Even a likely DEM voter may be hesitant to say they are voting for Bell when they’ve never heard of him.
With a few variables, my prediction even follows logically from that early poll.
Perry stays about the same, the DEM picks up an extra 10-12% once the people know who he is. They are simply undecided because they asked the question, “Who the heck is Chris Bell?” But in the end, they’ll be there. That 40% is pretty stable for a DEM candidate. 42% voted against the most popular Governor in a generation in 1998. I don’t think Kinky bleeds off too many likely DEM voters. Texas may be red, but there is a loyal yellow dog following. Usually at least 40%. Maybe more this time because I think there will be a big push by the DEMs to take Texas. Strayhorn may act as a Perot to Perry’s Bush.
Then, I think a good portion of Kinky’s support in that poll falls to Strayhorn.
So I think that puts the numbers about where I predict.
Sorry, I didn’t get to this sooner.
Here is the polll with Strayhorn instead of perry…from the same cite I provided earlier. Notice that friedmans votes did NOT go to Strayhorn.
Keeton Strayhorn (R)
39%
Bell (D)
23%
Friedman (I)
22%