With all due respect, the flaw in this reasoning is that it’s predicated on who usually votes in elections. I think you underestimate just how many people stay home on Election Day because, essentially, they are asked to choose between having your throat slit and being decapitated. Not very inspiring.
I think the reason Bernie is surprising the pundits is that a lot of people who don’t usually vote, who view the establishment Dems and the GOP as two sides of the same bad penny, are coming out to support him. And as far as the naysaying about the Senate and Congress, these same people who the mainstream candidates have written off as Why Bother They’re Not Showing Up In November might just overturn the apple cart.
As a Minnesotan, I have now twice used my constituent privilege* on behalf of successful collective efforts to get Minnesota senators to step down (from the office in Al Franken’s case, now from the presidential race). Very glad to see her doing the right thing! I was in a near-panic along with other mainstream Democrats a week or two ago, and now I’m feeling much more optimistic.
*You can only send senators emails if you are located within their state’s boundaries.
So far in fact they have not. They support him but they so far have not been coming out in big numbers. His wins have been in low turnout events and mostly those who usually don’t vote have been … not voting.
Tomorrow is the real test of the premise. He can blow Biden away if those who don’t usually vote come out for him tomorrow, if actually excites those voters to make the time to get off their asses en masses. If he fails to blow Biden away, especially in both California and Texas, then it’s because those who don’t usually vote, who view the establishment Dems and the GOP as two sides of the same bad penny, are NOT coming out to support him.
What DSeid said. It’s win-win: if he really does bring out this giant group of nonvoters, he will get the nomination and he will be in good position to bring them out again against Trump. My bet is that he doesn’t bring them out and he won’t win the nomination, and that will be a good thing because we will need someone like Kiden who can appeal to swing voters instead.
Oh my God. Klobuchar told the same story about the dude at President Roosevelt’s funeral who said “I didn’t know President Roosevelt, but he knew me”, in her speech endorsing Biden - the same speech she’s told, like, 16 times already at these debates. I’ve always said it: Klobuchar never had anything to offer but platitudes, soundbites, and trite “middle America” cliches.
She should NOT be Biden’s VP. Not a chance. Biden himself is a risky choice for nominee, and his VP needs to be extremely strategic.
The constant retelling of the same stories is annoying for political junkies but reaches marginal voters who don’t see nearly as much coverage as we do.
I don’t really see a guy who managed to lose a battle of wits with George W Bush doing much to turn back what Republicans have done. (And losing a battle of wits with Dubya is in his own description of events). I fail to see how anyone gets excited over Biden, even 20 years ago he didn’t have the smarts to go toe to toe with Republicans, and he’s obviously slipped since then. Establishment Democrats seem to be pushing hard to continue the hard-right slide, just at a slightly slower rate, not to do anything to reverse it.
There’s lots of people on this board voting for and endorsing him over Warren or Sanders, which I am willing to call ‘excitement’. People are arguing that he is the best choice or that we’re all obligated to either vote for him or be considered Trump supporters, which should generally require some level of ‘excitement’ to do.
The fact that Biden supporters here apparently won’t even call themselves ‘excited’ about him is, if true, a pretty damning criticism, one stronger than I was trying to make.
It’s moronic to treat them as the same. It’s not to treat them both as being allied with moneyed interests. There very much is an excluded part of the electorate, one which Trump, despite his failings, was able to con into thinking cared about them. The establishment just doesn’t seem to want to focus on making things better for the people.
It’s not impossible for people to get excited around a moderate candidate. We did for Obama, after all. But it can only happen if the candidate really pushes the idea that he is the people’s candidate, and he’s going to help.
And I really do worry that excitement is more important here. I keep pointing out that, during my lifetime, I’ve never seen the less exciting candidate win.
Yes, I would excited about Biden regardless of his opposition. He may not be the most progressive candidate, but he would still be left of any Republican. Furthermore, because the US shows a reluctance to accept a highly progressive leftist agenda, I believe that Joe stands a better chance of being an effective leader who can get legislation passed.
You’re being snarky, but that actually is what we should be rooting for IMO.
+1
Furthermore, I watched him speak in Dallas last night and his speech actually got me alternately choked up and fired up! I would not have predicted that a few months or even weeks ago.
