Lebanon: Strike ends, violence continues . . .

[BrainGlutton]

Story here, Wiki article here. We might have hoped the 2005 “Cedar Revolution” would at long last quiet things down. No such luck.

How will this turn out? Can yet another civil war be averted?

[chappachula]

to fight a civil war you need two sides who are armed and willing to fight. Right now, Lebanon has only one side like that–the fanatic shiites of Hizballah, who effectively own the southern part of the country. But the rest of the Lebanese aren’t willing to destroy their country in another civil war. So they will allow Hizballah to create its own mini-state , basically dividing the country in half along the Litani River.

Right now, the violence is due to Hizballah trying to increase its control over the Lebanese parliament. But they seem to realize that they have bitten off more than they can chew, and are over-reaching. The city of Beirut will not give up its affluent lifestyle, and Hizballah seems to understand that. They semi-apologized for yesterday’s violence,(blaming it on “Israeli undercover agents”).

So no civil war, just a few border clashes, so Hizballah can show its military muscle as Southern Lebanon becomes a separate entity with an Islamic/terrorist regime.

[BrainGlutton]

@chappachula

to fight a civil war you need two sides who are armed and willing to fight. Right now, Lebanon has only one side like that–the fanatic shiites of Hizballah, who effectively own the southern part of the country. But the rest of the Lebanese aren’t willing to destroy their country in another civil war. So they will allow Hizballah to create its own mini-state , basically dividing the country in half along the Litani River.

The depressing thing is, that’s probably the best-case scenario.

[FRDE]

It looks to me as if Hezbollah is trying to intimidate the North into giving it more political power - possibly they followed the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine with interest.

Their approach seems extremely risky, although the Christians, Druze etc were reluctant to fall on them last year, if seriously threatened they will probably fight.

Somewhere I read of Hezbollah that they are ‘a State within a failed State’.

I heard on the BBC that the USA has given substantial military aid to the Lebanese army.

[BrainGlutton]

Analysis by Mohamad Bazzi for The Nation:

In the last war, the sectarian divide was between Muslims and Christians. This time the conflict is mainly between Sunnis and Shiites. It’s also an extension of the ongoing proxy war in Iraq–pitting Iran against an alliance of the United States, Saudi Arabia and other Arab regimes.

There is one major, underreported reason for Lebanon’s slide toward civil war: blowback from Iraq. Fearing the sectarian bloodbath in Iraq and Iran’s growing regional influence, Lebanese Sunnis feel besieged as never before, and they’re lashing out at Shiites. As they confronted Hezbollah supporters during a nationwide strike last week, some groups of Sunnis waved posters of Saddam Hussein. It was a rich contradiction: US-allied Sunnis carrying posters of Hussein, a dictator the United States spent billions of dollars and lost thousands of lives to unseat. But it was also a declaration of war: Hussein, after all, killed hundreds of thousands of Shiites in Iraq. Many Lebanese Shiites have relatives in Iraq, and the two communities have had close ties for decades.

Whodathunkit?!

[FRDE]

My bet is that the Christians and the Druze will have a minor massacre.

If I were them, I would go for it now.

I don’t really understand the Hesbollah mindset, but the words stupid and dangerous come to mind.