I personally see it as a three-dog race between the Heat, The Cavs, and the Clippers. I am betting a return to the Heat, he just needed to rework his contract, and needed to opt out to do that.
Well, Duran Duran is at least 20 years past their prime, I don’t think it really matters who’s fronting the band these days.
What?
Ah! Typo!!!
Just now noticed that…any mods wanna change?
That’s a quality typo. 
I fixed it. Anyway: I think the most likely outcome is that LeBron and Wade and Bosh stay in Miami on, say, three-year deals at lower salaries that let the team bring in some more help. I’m not sure how he’d fit with the Clippers, but it’s an intriguing idea. I’ve spent the last two years wondering why anyone thinks he’s going back to Cleveland. The team as constituted is not good. They could become more appealing with some trades, but I’m not sure they can become a contender this year. They’re still owned by Dan Gilbert, who acted like a huge dick when LeBron left. We know how the fans treated him when he left. They just hired a coach with a great track record but no NBA experience. When he went to Miami three years ago we heard all about how the hometown connection never meant that much to him because he’s not from Cleveland anyway. Maybe I’m looking at this from the wrong perspective, but I think this is a case of people rooting for a story without considering whether it makes any sense.
If he was smart he would be looking to go somewhere like Chicago or Houston (Clippers? how could they possibly get him?). In Miami he is looking at once again signing below his value so he can cruise to the finals once again in the nothing East and try to carry Wade into another championship against a far superior Western team.
The Clippers would have to make some moves. And I think he’ll be taking less than his value wherever he goes. Houston might be able to offer him a max contract (also depending on other trades), but even if they can, he’d be wise to take less from a team-building perspective. After all, he’s already taking less money if he leaves Miami as a free agent.
Not seeing him take his talents to Edgewater Park Beach. The Cavs have no money, and the fans there hate him now.
I think, in a “time heals all wounds” kind of situation, the fans aren’t really that mad anymore.
I think REAL (always tough to say I know) fans understand what happened.
(Also thanks for the edit Marley)
There is still very little reason for him to want to return.
One word: Modell.
I think he’ll probably re-sign with Miami, but I really liked this column suggesting he go full mercenary:
More and more I think he’ll ask for the max, and Wade will not lower his salary by as much as people think he might.
I have a question regarding the salary cap. What are the rules on exceeding it? If you max out Lebron at around $25m and Wade around $15-20m, and maybe Bosh closer to $12-15m, that doesn’t leave a lot for other guys. But you can exceed the cap, teams do it all the time. Is there a rule about only being able to sign guys to some minimum deal once you go over?
Because of an article on Slate.com I read that I can’t seem to find, I don’t see why players are so often asked to take lower money to keep a team together. The only one that benefits is the owners who are always richer. Why should Miami’s big 3 take lower to save Mickey Arison money? Arison should max out those guys and get whoever he needs. If that’s a $90m team, then so be it. Anyways, that’s a rant for another day, sorry
I think Lebron stays, but the team won’t win next year either. They won’t get Carmelo, that’s a pipe dream, he’s not giving up that much money to come to Miami, and the Big 3 is still good enough to win the East but it’ll be harder due to an improve Pacers team, improved Bulls team, and probably one or two dark horses that will give them some trouble. But I don’t think Lebron leaves to go to Cleveland at all. And I think he’s the type of guy who wants to get along more than dominate, so he’ll try a few more years with his best friends
I think what would be interesting is Lebron in the West. Lots more great teams here and there’s no guarantee he even gets to the Finals if he’s on a team like the Clippers. They’d be favored, but he’d probably have to take out at least one of the Spurs/Thunder/Blazers/Houston team. And if the Warriors get Kevin Love, then they’re going to be fighting for that top spot too
I don’t know how it works exactly but teams get exceptions, of about 5 mil a year, that they can offer players. I hope he doesn’t go West, the talent level is already so skewed that there would be no point at all in the East if he leaves.
I don’t think Carmelo would be a good fit, even if they did have the money. I’d go after Trevor Ariza to replace Shane Battier, and a point guard (Darren Collinson, maybe?)
The cap rules are really, really complicated. There are exceptions you can use, but the exceptions are different depending on where your team is situated with respect to the luxury tax; i.e. you get less money to give to a veteran free agent if you’ve gone over the cap by a bunch in the prior year. The consequences for going over the tax limits keep getting worse over time, too; the more you ignore it, and for longer, the harsher the penalties become. There’s also a bunch of differences between the cap on resigning your own guys and signing free agents that interplay with the tax thresholds.
Long story short, though, it’s not true that they can just max out all the players on their team and the only consequences would be to the owner’s bottom line. In the Heat’s case, the main problem is the guys they have aren’t good enough, so they need new players, and they can’t pay them.
The thing is, he’s a free agent, and he’s LeBron James. Whatever team he wants to end up on, that is the team he ends up on. If you have to amnesty Blake Griffin (not that they would) to get him, you just do it. It’s not like the Heat have any remaining say in the matter that they’d be able to hold out for something like equivalent value, even if it existed.
I think it comes down to what Wade, and to a lesser extent Bosh, do. If Wade opts into his player option of $20,048,000 (which he may well do, at the rate he’s declining, his two player option years are likely his last chance for a big payday, and recall that he just went through an expensive divorce), expect LeBron to leave. If Wade and Bosh decline their player options and sign new, cheaper deals, expect him to stay, and for Miami to reload.
If he does leave, Chicago* and Houston give him the best chances at winning, I’d say.
The Bulls still have their amnesty, and can use it on Carlos Boozer’s $16.8 million salary for '14-'15. Rose-Butler-James-Gibson-Noah is a pretty nice starting five, and we know their coach is up to par. Also, this way he stays in the East, which is like a cheat code to reach the Finals automatically.
- if Derrick Rose is able to play
Houston has been trying to trade Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin, who are both set to make $14.8 million next year, but only count as $5 million salaries under the cap. Doing so would be ideal, but even if they can’t, that accounting trick would allow a nice, but sub-max, salary for LeBron. They could run out Beverley-Harden-James-Jones-Howard.
Obviously, I have no inside knowledge. I just figure that, first and foremost, LeBron wants to win championships, and he’s not convinced that the Miami Heat, as PRESENTLY constituted, can do that for the next few years.
I think he’d LIKE to stay with the Heat, but only if they make some serious moves to improve the roster. If they do, he’ll re-up with the Heat. If not, he’ll look for a contender that has a good coach and enough cap room to sign him.
LeBron needs more good players around him. I don’t think he believes any longer that Dwayne Wade is a reliable #2 man. He wants Pat Riley to make some moves. We’ll see if Riley can make the moves to entice him back.
I’d be very, very surprised.
I don’t know about all the time - it’s a handful of teams every year. The system works like this: if a team exceeds the salary cap, it has to make additional payments to the NBA based on how far over the cap it is. If you go over the cap repeatedly, you have to make bigger payments. And yes, if you’re over the cap, your ability to free agents certain kinds of contracts is restricted.
Bosh made $19.1 million this year, and he’s not taking a $7 million paycut unless Wade and LeBron do it, too. Anyway these are the salary cap projections for next year. You’re proposing they start with $52 million to $60 million committed to those three guys, plus a few million for Cole + Andersen and possibly $4 million plus for Haslem (they have to be hoping he opts out or retires).. If they keep those guys I don’t think they will make that much. The team has some flexibility, but keep in mind that they have to fill out the rest of their roster. Every other player they sign will have to make at least the minimum salary, which starts at about $500,000 for rookies and goes up to $1.5 million for veterans. A team of LeBron, Bosh, Wade, Cole, Birdman, and seven or eight guys making the minimum is not going to win anything. I think they did pay the tax last year, but they amnestied Mike Miller to reduce their luxury tax payments and that really hurt them. Mickey Arison isn’t lighting his money on fire the way Mikhail Prokhorov is - he seems to be the only owner who is ignoring the cap altogether, and it’s not working out very well for him.
There are a couple of different ways to look at this, I think. In part it reflects the fact that we don’t usually give a shit what the owner does and we tend to presume it’s his money and he can do what he wants with it. It’s also yet another instance of people siding with ownership instead of labor- plus “they’re getting paid millions to play a kid’s game!” so blah blah blah.
Have you seen the Pacers since December? They have some problems they need to fix.