I should’ve probably posted this July 1 or earlier, but with LeBron expected to make his signing decision in a few days, maybe as soon as tomorrow, and Dwyane Wade expected to make his own choice by the end of the week, it’s now or never. Where are these guys going to wind up?
Cleveland - 44 percent
Chicago - 35 percent
Miami - 14 percent
New York - 3 percent
New Jersey - 3 percent
L.A. or Dallas - .9999999999999999991 percent
Everywhere else - .0000000000000000009 percent
[Everywhere else consists primarily of this scenario.]
So far there aren’t any big surprises other than Drew Gooden somehow getting a five-year contract when he’s played for nine teams in eight years. Joe Johnson dithered but stayed in Atlanta, Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki both opted out but stayed with their original teams. Amar’e Stoudemire is coming to New York but the Knicks showed way more interest in him than anyone else, so I don’t think that’s a surprise. I like him but this has ‘bad New York signing’ written all over it. And Johnson was overpaid but someone was going to offer him that kind of contract.
At this point I think it’s a cinch that Bosh joins up with one of the others. For most of the last year or two I thought it was a lock he’d go to Cleveland, but I think he’d rather be in Miami or Chicago, whether that’s with LeBron or Wade. And I never thought Wade would leave Miami but right now I think that’s about 50-50 between the Heat and the Bulls. As a Bulls fan I feel really good about all of this but I realize the player’s current team always has the edge and this talks can fall apart at any moment.
So my picks are for LeBron to stay in Cleveland while Wade and Bosh go to Chicago. I think a lot of the other big-ish names will stay put, both for the money and because there will be fewer attractive options once the dust settles. Carlos Boozer may not be crazy about Utah, for example, but I don’t know where he might wind up instead.
I still don’t think Wade or LeBron go anywhere. Bosh will end up in Cleveland or Miami (or Chicago if one of the aforementioned guys go there), it’s just a matter of whether Cleveland can work out a S&T with Toronto. If not, Miami. If so, the Boozer signs with Miami. In fact, I think Boozer leaving is a near-lock because they have a very capable (and well-paid) replacement in Paul Millsap.
You may be right about Boozer. Certainly there’s been noise about him going to Chicago or Miami forever and Utah seems prepared. But if I were right and Wade and Bosh went to Chicago, wouldn’t that take both cities out of the equation? I guess someone else would make him an offer. I don’t know who it would be, though.
Amar’e is Antonio McDyess 2.0 for the Knicks. I think that it’s absurd to give him a max deal - he’s never averaged double digit rebounds in a season; with his length and athleticism, he should be top 2 or 3 every year, at least 12 or 13 boards a game.
As a Bulls fan this week has been an interesting and somewhat stressful one. I don’t have a ton of faith in the Bulls ability to get things done and we don’t have a very good history of attracting free agents. Even in the Jordan era the best FAs we really landed were Rodman, who had pretty much burned his bridges everywhere else, and Ron Harper who was a bit of a Jordan sycophant and was winding down his career. To be a pessimist, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bulls were simply being used as leverage to inflate contracts elsewhere.
That said, on paper the Bulls simply have the best team of any that are in the market. We’re even better than the LeBron-less Cavs and the Heat with Wade. I’m actually not that high on LeBron. I don’t like the guy and I think he’s hugely overrated for a guy that hasn’t won shit and has frankly folded under pressure more often than he rose to the occasion. Plus I dislike the idea of LeBron and Rose competing to dominate the ball.
My top FA target is Chris Bosh. He fits perfectly with the roster we have and I think his skills are more scarce than what Wade or LeBron provide. LeBron is physically gifted, but I think it’s easier to find a guy who can be 75% of him than it is to find a guy that can be 75% of Bosh. Low post scoring is simply rare. Bosh however probably isn’t going anywhere alone and he’s probably not going to Cleveland under any circumstance. I’m betting that he’ll go where Wade ends up. And I do like he idea of a starting 5 of Rose, Wade, Deng, Bosh and Noah (though I’d be even happier to see Deng traded away with a young prospect and Taj Gibson starting in his spot).
If Wade stays in Miami I think the Bulls have to get LeBron to have a shot at Bosh and if LeBron gets us Bosh I think it’ll all work out. Though LeBron on the Bulls will probably destroy Derrick Rose’s career. If push comes to shove LeBron and Bosh is better than Bosh and Rose, but it won’t be as much fun to cheer for.
I wonder if the Bulls can convince the Raptors to agree to a sign and trade with Bosh coming here and Deng and James Johnson plus Cash going to Toronto. I think that’s realistic and good for both teams. The Bulls pay Bosh the max and dump Deng’s contract. The Raptors get a productive player who fits their system and was actually once drafted by Colangelo and a young 2nd year guy with tons of upside. From there the trick would be convincing Wade to team up with Bosh and come home to Chicago but to leave some cash on the table and be the 2nd highest paid guy on the team. That might be a tough sell.
I just hope the Bulls aren’t the team left out in the cold when LeBron and Wade both stay home and Bosh goes to Miami. With Amare, Johnson and Dirk already signed we might be stuck overpaying David Lee and Carlos Boozer. Yuck. Then again, maybe they can bid their time in that scenario and just sign one guy and make a run at Carmelo next year.
My dark-horse prediction is that Bosh ends up with Houston. The Rockets are one of a select few teams with the depth and desirable assets to pull off a sign-and-trade while remaining competitive AND have a good center for Bosh to play off of.
LeBron will be announcing his decision in an hour-long ESPN special this Thursday at 9PM ET, with some advertising proceeds going to charity. Haha, that’s the way to make an announcement (I’m looking at you, Tiger).
That’s crazy. You have to wonder if things will get leaked beforehand and if Bosh and Wade will announce stuff during the special as well. I think it’s pretty clear that LeBron has already made up his mind and I bet Wade and Bosh know what he’s doing already. If he’s doing a hour-long special I think it’s basically a certainty that he’s staying in Cleveland. I think there’s essentially zero chance that LeBron will want to have an hour-long, publicized and nationally televised special dedicated to him assassinating the entire city of Cleveland mafia style. He’s far to media conscious to be front and center on something that will certainly be spun as a tragedy.
Frankly, the only other alternative is that LeBron would go to New York. That’s the only possible story that could warrant a LeBron sponsored hour-long special and might slightly overshadow the negative spin of him shunning Cleveland.
Agreed. And I wonder if the real point of the hour-long special is to announce that another big name (not necessarily Wade or Bosh) is going to join him on the Cavs.
Yeah. Toronto would make out better in a sign-and-trade with Cleveland, but Bosh doesn’t want to go to Ohio (who could blame him?:p).
It’s almost a certainty that the most likely outcome of this is the most boring one: Lebron and Wade stay put, Bosh goes to Miami, and then the Knicks, Nets, and Bulls give ludicrous contracts to anyone they can.
Either that or they ALL go to Miami and make the NBA Superteam.
Bosh would go anywhere with James. If James wanted Chicago, Bosh is a Bull right now. Same with the Knicks, Clippers (ha!), or anywhere. The only place he patently refused to go to was Cleveland. Now let’s think about this…
Bosh going to Miami means two things: James said “I’m gonna be a Cavalier whether you come or not.” and Bosh just said “Well then I’m gonna be a Heat”. OR They’re all gonna make the Superteam.
Welp, I’m disappointed but not very surprised. I’m sure some word about LeBron will leak before the special but I expect he’ll stay with the Cavs, and perhaps the Bulls will wind up with Boozer after all. I’d have been happy with that if not for the fact that the team appeared to have some kind of a shot at LeBron or Bosh+Wade.
I really don’t understand the move by Bosh at all. He can’t have a sign and trade—I don’t think Miami has ~$13 million in salaries to move back to Toronto—so he gives up that very valuable last year, for what? To play with D. Wade and 10 munchkins? Wade/Bron and 9 minimum salaries? (Assuming James is such a raging dick as to take an entire hour to rip Cleveland’s heart out on national television) Couldn’t he have had the exact same thing playing with Bron in NJ, only also having Lopez, Devin Harris, and Favors to help out? (Never understood the anti-NJ logic: the above team, with some SG help, wins now, not when they move to Brooklyn)
Hell, he could have gone to Houston, gotten the extra $ for a S&T and maybe had additional help in Houston with another trade. (Houston is ridiculously loaded with 1-2 year left deals, draft picks, and role players). Miami must really be something…
I am going to take great pleasure in watching Miami and the Knicks crater over the next several years for facilitating this ridiculous spectacle. Further, to borrow a phrase I read elsewhere, enjoy being this decade’s version of Karl Malone, LeBron, because there’s no way he’s winning a title with those teammates in Cleveland. If LeBron stays in Cleveland, I wonder how much of it is due to his advisors (Maverick et al) realizing just how fast they might be marginalized if LeBron was in Chicago or the NY/NJ area?
Unless Lebron goes and joins them in Miami that is. I feel bad for Chicago, i thought they had the most to offer with Rose and a very capable team of roleplayers and room for two max contracts. That was a dynasty waiting to happen. Miami has 2 players under contract, they will fill that team with young guys and vets playing for the minimum, I’m sure they’ll do well enough but nowhere near as good as adding Bosh and Wade to a ready made playoff team would have.
I assume it’s not going to be a sign and trade, but I don’t know how much money he’s really leaving on the table. And apparently he does want to win enough that he wanted out of Toronto regardless. Everybody knew he was leaving that team. Meanwhile Florida has no state income tax, and between that and exchange rates and everything else, I wonder how much money he’s really giving up. He’s getting a ton of money no matter how you slice it. I wonder if this means Riley is going to go back to coaching the Heat. Players still seemed to be in awe of his reputation and he hints about it pretty regularly.