Everybody’s right. Germany’s aggressive opening has set the tone for the first two years. With him in Burgundy, E in the Channel, and and I in Piedmont, France is definitely not looking strong (Ven-Pie in particular shows an astonishing level of trust in Germany on Italy’s part, which does not bode well). With Russia opening to the south and presumably a strong relationship with England, I’m confident that Germany will bounce Sweden.
Looks can be deceiving in S01, but so far it looks like the three central powers plan to cooperate, and that G and E are allied. Thus cooperation between R and T is absolutely critical.
[li] I think Germany’s best play is Den-Swe, Kie-Hol, Bur-Bel. France has to play defense so he can take Belgium unopposed. Taking his allies into account, however, complicates things. Italy will want some return (and deserves it, too) for his risk in moving on Piedmont. England may also have his eye on Belgium. So the most likely set will be Bur S ITALIAN A Pie-Mar, Den-Swe, and Kie-Hol. This also prevents anyone from panicking at a German 3-center gain in 1901 (although one could make the case that seeing all three of E, G, I gain 2 should be even more worrisome to the eastern powers).[/li]
[li] France has few choices and no good ones. Personally I’d go with Pic-Bre, MAO-Por, Spa-Mar. If Germany decides to go for Paris he’s screwed, but that’d be very random. This way he loses Mar but gains the 2 Iberian neutrals, allowing an army build in Paris which at least keeps him competitive. If England goes for Bel and Germany and Italy follow my advice, though, you’re looking at 2 builds for each of his three neighbors, which spells doom.[/li]
[li] Russia has potentially the most impact on slowing the EGIA behemoth. Nothing can be done about Scandinavia at this point but cooperation with Turkey against Austria must be totally solid. Unfortunately, faced with a concrete IA alliance, Turkey can’t do much in 1901 and so will have to trust that Russia understands that he can’t afford to stab his only real ally and let Russia take the lead for the first year or two.[/li]
As Russia, I like: GOB-Swe, Ukr-Gal, Rum-Bud, Sev-Rum. If he can get Turkey to agree to this plan, I think there’s a good chance that Austria could be totally screwed by the end of 1902. It absolutely hinges on Turkey ordering Bul S RUSSIAN A Sev-Rum, however. Turkey also needs to ensure that Austria supports himself into Greece by giving the impression that he may order Bul-Gre. You figure Austria to order to Warsaw, not considering that Russia will do anything but bounce there. But Russia can afford to give up Warsaw in order to take Gal and Bud; Austria will net two builds (+War, +Gre, +Ser, -Bud), but with Russian armies in Gal, Bud, Rum and Turkey in Bul and AEG (and with Italy’s fleet out of the way in Tun for S02), a lot of damage can be done. Defending against the rogue Austrian army will be a pain, but can be done easily enough with the one army build Russia will get in W01 (if he manages to get Sweden too that’s just icing and the rout of Austria will be on). Of course, if you can prevent losing Warsaw that’s ideal, but you don’t really want to be stranded there if Austria orders to Budapest, which is why I favor Ukr-Gal.
There’s no benefit to messing around in a Balkan power struggle because the only road to success lies with a strong RT, and don’t forget that A must already have double-crossed R in his opening in order to get into Gal. The tough part is convincing Turkey that throwing his support behind Russia so completely will benefit him down the road. With Italy getting 2 builds he may be gunshy, but his best (only) bet is a rock-solid alliance with Russia.
Incidentally, I’d consider ordering GOB-BAL. Let Germany strand himself in Sweden while Russia threatens Den, Kie, and Ber. I’d only order to Swe if I thought there was a legitimate possibility that G wasn’t bouncing Swe, and as things stand now I can’t imagine why he wouldn’t. The other option as Russia would be to focus your energies on turning England away from Germany. It has to happen sooner or later, as Russia you’d just want to see that it happens before E/G hits Russia as opposed to afterwards. E/G cannot succeed indefinitely.
[li] Italy’s moves are obvious. Pie-Mar, ION-Tun, and Apu holds. If he supports G into Mar he’s a tool and Turkey should be very scared as Italy would spend the rest of his game devoting his 4 units to helping A against T until he gets stabbed by G and/or A. If he doesn’t nab Tun he’s just silly. With 2 fleet builds in W01 he can choose to either focus on taking Iberia from France, playing the Lepanto, or just hang around and dominate the Med.[/li]
Austria’s position isn’t nearly as good as it looks. He’s likely to get locked into conflict with R/T, and none of his allies will be in much position to swing that battle in his favor. Once Italy sees some success in the west he’s unlikely to want to commit against Turkey for a while. Austria will need to foment mistrust between R and T or else he’s in for a long, hard road.