I know there are dozens of thread about what happens next, and LGBTQ rights aren’t on the top of most peoples list, but with Trump in the WH & the R’s in control of both houses of Congress, I can’t help but be concern.
Trump is not overtly, (nor, as far as I know, covertly), anti LGBTQ. He played a bit of that for the Evangelicals whom he hoped to woo for votes, but I do not recall him actually making a serious issue of overturning any current court decisions or legislation.
I should add, I remain optimistic that it’s too late to somehow undo Obergefell. What are they going to do, un-marry people? And with public sentiment having shifted so drastically on the issue, I don’t think there’s the political will for it. But many other issues around LGBTQ rights are still up in the air.
He doesn’t have to do anything himself. He just has to let his “advisors” pick out the next couple of supreme court justices, and there you go. He may not be personally hostile to LGBTQ people, but I doubt that he actually cares enough about them to do anything to ensure their rights, either.
I don’t expect Trump to personally pursue an anti-LGBTQ agenda (although I’m a lot less sure of that than I would be with Clinton). But he’s promised to appoint conservative Justices. Ruth Bader Ginsberg and Anthony Kennedy are both in their 80’s. [Edited to add: and Stephen Breyer is 78] If one dies and is replaced with another Scalia, it’s bad news the next time an LGBTQ-rights case makes it to the Supreme Court.
There will be a lot of calls for a constitutional amendment outlawing homosexuality. Those calls may well be answered; Trump may not care personally, but he does need allies in order to accomplish all his revenge and personal-enrichment schemes. Congress will cooperate because they’ll be getting what they want, and the states will be happy to ratify.
Though SSM and certain federal benefits questions were addressed by the Obergefell and Windsor cases Kennedy did a great disservice to the LGBT community by failing to address some basic issues normally addressed in discrimination cases.
Also, very recently trans people were finally able to relatively easily update their social security and passport gender marker and name with only a letter from their doctor. It’s not perfect and requires some obnoxious documentation redundancy, but it’s overall pretty simple. This could easily and quickly be made worse than it was, or even impossible, under a Trump/Pence presidency. We’re talking about a veep who actually believes you can electroshock the gay out of people.
I’ve had two of my transgender friends express concern and one put on suicide watch. The gains of the LGBT movement have been almost exclusively in the judicial and executive branches. That’s all going away.
I think for LGB, its not going backwards. Just like after Johnson enacted Civil Rights, he was succeeded by 8 years of Republicans, 4 years of Carter, and 12 more years of Republicans. Blacks’ place in the nation, both socially and economically, continued to improve. There are states where gay rights are popular that voted Trump but went Obama twice.
I do think that the drop-the-T movement will gain steam; there’s more division than people think over it. Trump’s victory may mean its OK to express dissent about transgenderism without being labeled as evil.
Congress couldn’t even give Bush his marriage amendment a decade ago.
I think people underestimate the capacity of a society to backslide on social equality issues (look at a list of black senators or governors), but support for an amendment banning homosexuality is not going to be there any time soon.