Here is a scary thought. Cheney gets enough EVs to put the election in the House. States vote by delegation and so the candidates Biden, Trump and Cheney need 26 votes to be elected President. We saw how wonderfully the Republican House members handled both SotH elections so we may see the 12th Amendment come into effect and the elected VP (51 votes assuming all Senators seats filled out of the top two candidates) acting as President.
That doesn’t scare me. I can’t think of a single state she would win outright over both Trump and Biden.
What scares me is the prospect of her winning enough centrist voters in PA, GA, AZ or WI to tip them to Trump instead of BIden.
Exactly. Which is why, should she run, she should only get in the ballot in Texas and Florida.
Great thought. Maybe Ohio, too – it’s close enough to purple that a 5% defection of GOP voters could give it to Biden.
Which could just be seen by Trump supporters as clear evidence of ‘Deep State’ collusion and how former mainline conservative Republicans are actually aligned with the Democratic party. I mean, not as if that crowd needs evidence to believe in the wildest conspiracy theories, but Cheney campaigning for Biden would actually make that notion seem plausible to even less-irrational moderate voters. Cheney should just go back to her hidey-hole and stop ‘helping’, because I guarantee that her assistance comes with more liabilities than benefits. If she really wants to help, get some of that corporate ‘dark money’ flowing into ads about what a budding authoritarian Trump is blossoming into and what an absolutely fucktastic job he did last time around, and flood competitive states with them.
Stranger
I admire Liz Cheney’s stand against Trump. Her book is very interesting and reveals a lot about politicians.
I don’t think she has enough name recognition to run for President. She could be a excellent VP on Nikki Haley’s ticket.
Except, why are we worried about what “Trump supporters” think or do?
Sure, if she gets on ballots in a strategic manner, avoiding any states that Biden has a good chance of winning, focusing only on those swing states that currently favor Trump, it will look like she’s trying to get rid of Trump.
Which is exactly what she’s said her goal is.
This isn’t hidden, and any Trump supporter stupid enough to think, “A-ha! I’ve sussed out her little plan!” just because of which states she runs in is too stupid to be worth worrying about.
Well, she is the enemy of our enemy, and I believe she’s sincere in doing whatever she can to see that Trump is not elected.
I have zero fear that she’d end up in the WH, and I also believe that if analysis shows that her third party run helps Trump, she doesn’t run.
Yes, this. Two things I’m sure of: 1) She really is interested in stopping Trump, and not just faking that, and 2) she has access to much better polling data than any of us.
If she does run, it’s because she’s done the math, and is convinced she will hurt Trump enough to maybe stop him.
If I trust nothing else about her, I trust this.
Does she? Where did she get this “much better polling data”? Are you certain that she isn’t just doing this to stay relevant in the hope that the MAGA movement doesn’t survive the eventual death of Donald Trump, and won’t use that to influence to advance her own odious agenda when and if that occurs? Or maybe she’ll decide that if she can put enough hurt onto the mainline GOP to get them to accede to her agenda (unlikely, but then, so was Trump taking over the Republican party) then she’ll turn around and throw the weight of her political backing against Biden. She has baldly and knowingly lied about Biden in the past and I think the only thing that can actually be assumed about her behavior for certain is that she will act in a way that best supports her own interests.
Stranger
Liz makes me circle back around to Lindsey Graham. Going up to the primary’s, he HATED Trump, said what a disaster he would be.
I don’t think she would be a boot licker like Graham though.
Every political campaign does their own polling, and they can use questions designed to find the exact answers they want to know. We’re stuck using public polling, using questions that often don’t really focus on the key questions we’re interested in.
If she was looking to stay relevant, she could have kept her head down, kept her seat in the Senate, and let all the other braying donkeys take the heat for Trump and MAGA. That would have been an infinitely better place from which to stage a take-over of the GOP than where she is now. She’s burned an awful lot of bridges, very publicly, and is now out of office. That’s a huge uphill battle back to just relevance, let alone actually winning, that she didn’t need to take.
If nothing else (her politics aside) I respect her for speaking the truth about Trump.
It is true that campaigns hire pollsters to conduct private polls but these are usually more narrowly focused. I don’t know that I’d have any more confidence in the Cheney campaign polls (such as they are) at the point than I would any public polls regarding Trump.
Liz Cheney was in Wyoming’s one House of Reprefentitives seat which is probably a big deal in Wyoming but is essentially a warm bucket of spit in Congress. The attention she has garnered has been from attacking Trump and opposing the wack-a-doo “Freedom Caucus” conservatives in the GOP, while just going along to get along would have made her virtually anonymous other than for name recognition of being the daughter of Dick ‘Mad Panda’ Cheney.
She’s probably sincere in her hatred of all things Trump for what it has done to the GOP and the 6 January 2021 insurrection (which is not in alignment with her public stances on many issues) but it also gets her a national spotlight for a position nobody otherwise pays any attention to. If you can name anyone else who has previously held that office (other than Cheney père) without looking it up then you are more in touch with Intermountain West politics than I am. I’d argue that her best chance to do anything is to try to outlast the MAGA movement and then pivot her resistance into a national leadership position, and she would be happy to trample Biden or any successor to do it because she’s demonstrated a pretty ruthless, amoral, and avaricious attitude previously.
And realistically, there is probably little she could do to hurt Trump even with concerted effort; the idea that Republicans are going to abandon the national party to follow Liz Cheney in full knowledge that it may give advantage to the pedophile bank-robbing Commie terrorist Joe Biden is risible, while it may give people who might vote Biden as the lesser of two weevils the option of a “protest vote” that unwittingly only helps Trump. Republicans came out in record droves to vote Trump in 2020 after he did everything possible in his ineptitude to sink the economy and fail to effectively respond to the pandemic, and there is no reason to think that even a small fraction will suddenly flock to Liz Cheney.
Plenty of Republicans have criticized Trump…and then pulled back or disappeared. Cheney is canny enough to stick with her criticism because there is zero benefit in doing otherwise. And again, at minimum it guarantees her a series of book deals and a lucrative commentator spot on cable news as the “Republican Voice of Reason” or whatever even (or perhaps especially) if she is completely ineffectual. She’s not making some deep personal or career sacrifice; she’s distinguishing herself from the current mainstream because she knows that MAGA isn’t sustainable, and is better that she can outlast it.
Stranger
Doing the right thing is doing the right thing, even if it’s not for the right reasons. People should be encouraged and rewarded for doing the right thing, in order to encourage others to do so. IMO, anyway. I don’t know her motives, but I’m glad she’s doing the right thing WRT Trump, and I hope her example motivates others.
Well, I hope her example doesn’t cause a bunch of would-be Biden voters to protest-vote for her instead because Biden has already done quite a bit to marginalize himself without any outside ‘help’.
Stranger
Right – if she runs, she should only campaign, and get on the ballot, in states that would hurt Trump (i.e. TX, FL, OH).
I doubt she’ll run at all, but that would be the best way to do it, to hurt Trump and help Biden.
I nominate you to bell that cat.
Stranger
Let’s stop for a moment and recall Evan McMullin, the independent and darling of the never-Trumpers who ran in 11 states as an independent in 2016. As late as October, polls showed him ahead of both Trump and Clinton in Utah. Ultimately, McMullen got 21.5% of the vote in Utah (Trump got 45.5%.) In the 11 states where he was on the ballot McMullin got a total of 0.7% of the vote.
But wouldn’t 21.5% be enough to tip a (non-Utah) state to the Democrats? Consider that in 2016, Trump got 45.5% of the Utah vote, compared with Hillary’s 27.4%. In 2020, without a significant third-party challenge in Utah, Trump gained 13 percentage points, but Biden also gained 10 percentage points.
Conclusion: even an avowed anti-Trump candidate is going to pull some votes away from the Democratic candidate.