As far as I’ve seen, there are two main theories about the alternate timeline. One is what you describe, where the losties have no interaction with the island at all. They never crash, they never are in the 70s to set off the bomb, they never are in the 50s for Locke to meet Richard, and to help deal with the leaking bomb. There’s even a minor change much earlier, because we saw the statue in one of the flashes, so in the main timeline Sawyer & Co. were on the island for a short time prior to the arrival of the Black Rock.
The other theory is that when Jack set off the bomb, it split the timelines at that point. Then the alt timeline would have the same history up to 1977, and this is the case where there’s a paradox.
That’s why people are looking for changes prior to 1977; it would prove the second theory wrong.
But if that’s the case, what exactly happened in 1977 from the ALT Island point of view? If the Losties weren’t there to set off the bomb, then Dharma would have continued drilling into the pocket of energy, right? Which means The Incident would result. Which means the plane would crash nearly 30 years later. Except we know that it doesn’t, because the Island is underwater. How do we simultaneously explain the Losties not being in 77 and the plane not crashing? The two seem exclusive.
Unless: what if the drilling accident was not The Incident that eventually caused the crash? Maybe the drilling, uninterrupted by Jughead, is what sprung the leak and eventually submerged the Island (though not fast enough to prevent Dharma from getting off safely). Fast-forward nearly 30 years, Oceanic 815 flies over the Island, inconsequentially, and the passengers go on with their lives.
Since this timeline has not one single incident (ho-ho) in its past that was the result of action taken by time travellers, wouldn’t that necessarily make it the original timeline (as several posters proposed earlier in the season)?
I say the point of divergence is indeed 1977, when Juliet either did or did not detonate the bomb, but either way there was a big flash right at that moment. Everything that occured on and off the island before then, including Daniel keeping Jughead from exploding in the '50s, Eloise killing Daniel, Ben getting shot, the Losties being part of Dharma from 1974-1977, and so forth, is part of the past in both timelines.
Then, from 1977 to 2004, the two parallel timelines continued merrily along without interfering with one another, until O815 didn’t crash in the ATL, preventing the Losties from going back in time. There was no paradox until then, which is why the instability, bleed-through, or whatever you want to call it, started happening when they all landed at LAX.
Can you think of anything else that might sink an island?
I wasn’t really suggesting that the bomb would go off on its own without Faraday, so much as the US military coming and reclaiming their bomb and setting the thing off.
My theory is that the ALT timeline is a world without Jacob, and possibly the beginning of a time loop. Perhaps DHARMA accidentally releases Smokey on the world, so Jacob has to go back in time to change history to stop Smokey from escaping.
Although this episode shoots some holes in my theory with Desmond’s and Daniel’s memories of the other world, and Eloise’s knowledge. In both timelines, it seems that Eloise has the job of keeping events on track.
Jacob touched Sawyer in 1976. If this theory is true, Sawyer is the only Lostie touched by Jacob in the ALT timeline.
That we know of, maybe, but who’s to say what happened to Jacob after the incident. Maybe he went around touching everyone anyway, and that’s what allows them to have bleed over from the other timeline.
Hey, thanks! No, I don’t mind having this sticky point resolved at all. Sorry I didn’t respond sooner, but I don’t always get an email heads-up for some reason… I just saw this.