Could you please tell me what you need me to please tell you about?
I hear you. For what it’s worth, the information I gave earlier, strung together, serves as a complete narrative of what happened.
And again for what it’s worth, I have no reason to suspect that I didn’t get the correct read on Diver – I think the smoke monster is omniscient, and he told me.
Absolutely. When you post about me, it would make me happy if you explained why you were saying things like
because, you see, that is a comment about me, in a game where the game only exists to the extent that players comment on each other.
**
I feel played.
Why would there be all the build up over the tie-break mechanic, if this was the result?
Further, I thought no knowledge of canon would be needed.**
What were you expecting, single combat? It’s a tie break mechanic, not a f-ing parade.
As for knowledge of canon:
If all went down as reported, Mahaloth indirectly flipped a coin. Simple enough. The color is just that, color.
Then what is this wind monster thing?
And that is my point exactly, if Mahaloth was going to flip a coin, why didn’t he just say so? Instead, he built it up to be more than that.
**Color. Mafia = Game. No comment. Calm down. No prior knowledge of Lost needed…whatsoever. **
Meeko, in game terms, it looks like what happened was that the result of a tie is a random choice between the tied players and only the other tied player finds out what the alignment is. The fact that this occurred via smoke monster is no more relevant to the actual game than the fact that our vigilante was called Sawyer. Less, in fact, since you got good in-game benefit from the fact that your name was Sawyer.
And cardinal, we kind of have to assume that Mahaloth isn’t being a gastard, since we can’t play the game without assuming that. The rest of us not learning Diver’s alignment, well, that’s annoying, but I suppose we brought it on ourselves. But Jimmy being told the wrong alignment? Well, I don’t think that Mahaloth would go that far on us.
Well, that outcome wasn’t entirely a good thing.
Even so, we have some info from this outcome.
Case A: If Jimmy Chitwood is Town, he has no reason to misrepresent what the Smoke Monster told him about USCDiver.
Case B: If Jimmy is NOT Town, it’s in his interest to make it easier for him and any possible other Scum to hide. Regardless of USCDiver’s actual reported alignment, should Jimmy report USCDiver as Scum, there would now be 5 unknowns containing 1 Scum (or so we would think), as opposed to 5 unknowns containing 2 Scum. It’s better odds in this case for Jimmy to claim USCDiver as Scum.
THEREFORE, and PLEASE check me on this, I conclude:
USCDiver was accurately reported as Town.
Jimmy Chitwood is very likely to be Town – this depends highly on my assessment of his best interests, should he be Scum.
Meeko, I would especially like your analysis of my analysis, before Dawn if possible. I would also appreciate your assessment of all the other unknowns, including Chronos and myself. As in: You’re probably going to Die, so please publish your thoughts before they’re lost to us.
After taking Jimmy’s side, as it were, yesterday it initially didn’t occur to me to question diver’s alignment. having said that, I think you’re really wrong here.
If Jimmy is scum and diver was scum:
Chronos’s program says that the only possibly scum pairing involving diver was diver-jimmy. Jimmy might have a very limited life expectancy if he reported diver was scum. In his place, I would probably have lied in this scenario.
If Jimmy is scum and diver was town:
Falsely reporting diver as scum might appear initially tempting, but see the above analysis regarding chronos’s program.
If Jimmy is town, then he has every reason to honestly report Diver’s alignment. Yes, there is a increased probably that we’d mistakenly lynch him, trusting in chronos’s program, but only a bad mafia player would let that overcome the need to give town accurate info.
I’m really not sure I follow your logic regarding “scum-jimmy”'s supposed motivation to report diver as dead scum. Town would feel a lot more comfortable thinking there was only one mafia left, but that feeling wouldn’t necessarily help jimmy. What do you see here?
Chronos, can you make a post giving your thoughts on all the players? My feeling is that it’s a coin flip whether you or meeko die tonight.
What I see here is that if Jimmy reported USCDiver as Scum, we’d be looking for only one remaining Scum. We’d split into Those Who Overly Trust Chronos’s Program (and want to lynch Jimmy), and Those Who Don’t (and want to lynch someone else).
I consider Chronos’s program to be more accurate than my own assessments, up until this Night phase. I have since realized that a strong possibility exists that the probability pairings are wrong. Evaluating this possibility requires a rigorous assessment of Jimmy’s postings and votes, not just a numerical comparison of who he’s sided with and against.
In sum: I would like very very much to get a consensus evaluation on Jimmy. We had no consensus at Dusk.
Fun posting stats through 2031 posts (not counting this post):
Meeko 514 (his total post count is 4619)
Chronos 226
Jimmy Chitwood 198
Telcontar 154
storyteller0910 137
Scuba_Ben 126 (not counting this post)
Mahaloth 119
Zeriel 81
cardinal_fang 80
My first thought is that if anyone has any strong arguments either for or against Scuba_Ben, I’d really, really like to see them. I find myself having to afford him a certain degree of trust, not because of anything he’s done or said, but simply because the way the possibilities work out, the best chance of a Town victory depends on blindly assuming that he’s Town. Not learning USCDiver’s alignment has, I think, really hurt us.
Meeko I do think is Town, though I wish he weren’t. I don’t think he’s helping us, and it would simplify things enormously if we could just lynch him.
For the rest, really all I’ve got is hunches. I don’t think that hunches are very useful, and if I survive toNight, I’m going to go looking for something more substantive, but for the sake of putting all my cards on the table, of the unknowns, I’ve got a bad hunch about Jimmy and a good hunch about Telcontar. Then again, I had a bad hunch about storyteller, too, even after I logically knew he had to be on our side, so I’m not sure my hunches are all that great.
I have a strong argument on my own alignment, but I doubt you’ll find it helpful.
I have some useful end-game scenarios, but they require a rigorous analysis of you or Meeko (whoever survives Dawn), and of Jimmy. As previously noted, my rigorous analyses often come up wrong. But I’ll try all the same.
I agree that my time is comming to an end here. Further, I agree that I should speak up, because it would be impossible, when I can’t.
This logic may not hold for Mafia. However, FWIW, IIRC, Jimmy has always, and adamantly stated that he was town. IIRC, there was a play I made, where I simply listed names. Jimmy’s was on it, and he took it (As indeed, I intended it to play out) as my kill list, back when I was playing as having more bullets in my Gun.
I see this as the accused husband pledging full cooperation with authorities just after his wife has been found murdered. **My doubt on Jimmy being Town is shrinking rapidly. ** I am not going to say that he is Town, just, if he is scum, he is running real thin here.
However, I must also question, why Scuba is fishing here. Again, I once more or less called Mahaloth Townie McTownTown, and he rejoiced over on the scum board for it. Is Scuba here, knife to my throat, asking me to admit that his partner in crime is innocent?
**
Therefore, If I do die tonight, then blame and VOTE Scuba. Obviously.**
I would also vote Telcontar
I would not vote Jimmy at this point.
I would not vote Chronos
And snap decision here, I WOULD vote Cardinal.
NETA: My math doesn’t work there. Does it?
I would vote Telcontar or Cardinal Fang tommorow.
But, Scuba asking, does ping me.
So there you go.
I’m trying to get a second opinion on my analysis. I’m also asking for your potentially closing thoughts – which you’ve given us, and thank you.
How are those acts fishing?
You want me to make a statement on Jimmy.
If I were to say that he is town, for all I know, you could talk to him on the scum board, and tell him to do X Y or Z, now that I think he is town.
You could be asking me, because Jimmy and I are Tired of each other.
Once again, I don’t get it.
If Jimmy had reported diver as scum…we would be split into those who immediately wanted to lynch Jimmy and those who didn’t. It would be a very dangerous place to be given that, if diver was scum, we’d have to be wrong twice in a row. Hell, if diver was reported as scum I’d probably be strongly inclined to vote for jimmy today, and that would tip the balance against him even if cardinal stayed pat.
I see chronos’s program as potentially useful. At the moment, it is asking the question “who would your partner be?” This isn’t a perfect question, and the data aren’t the data we’d ideally like to have, but it does mean something. For example, I’m pretty clearly not partners with you, scuba. I tried to get you killed mid game, and the program can tell that. I was also clearly not partners with diver for the same reason. That cardinal has managed to make it this far without voting against myself, you, or jimmy, is rather interesting; it means that he could potentially be partners with any of us.
I’m still not putting total faith in the program, but i think it’s worth holding in mind as we go forward. it has been a long game and, personally, i can’t remember all of it. the program helps simplify.
I strongly believe that part of the program gets at useful, truthful information.
Knowing which part of the program. Now, that is something else all together.