Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

[Meeko]

Meeko, I read your post six times before I could even begin to understand what you were on about.

**
This seems to be more your problem than mine.** I could offer a different way to look at it, by way of a real world example, but I think that people will find it as another way to insult me. :rolleyes:

Well, nothing is stopping him, if he is an idiot. Mahaloth guaranteed him a safe alias (Neutral Nicholas); why would he false-claim Steven Survivor and risk a counter-claim from the real Steven Survivor?

Stop this red herring right here. You stated::

No one will duplicate a name that has already been claimed

I proved that they could. But, ok, lets continue.

Could you dodge the question even more next time? I doubt it. He would claim Steven Survivor just to prove how wrong you are. Scum love confusion. I’m not about to begin to guess what elaborate schemes scum boards create.

And, less sarcastically, he would claim S.S. if he felt he could make a better case than the actual S.S. . In your case, I would advise against this tactic.

On this planet where you are discussing ATM PIN security techniques as a metaphor for this particular issue in online Mafia, what colour is the sky?

You know, perhaps if you actually read it, you wouldn’t have to read the other parts of the post 6 times.

You don’t understand the mass-claim logic, do you? Again, for town power roles that can be credibly tied to names, they false-claim in order to avoid being exposed. Jack the Doctor was the case presented by those familiar with Lost.

I Understand that town has NO ADVANTAGE in a claim now. Further, I understand that Town would not want to confuse other town. Even further, I know this gets town started doing your scummy work for you.**

Scum wants town to claim. Scum wants town to create confusion.

Assume they false-claim. How do they know what name to pick?

You somehow know that names can’t be duplicated. Town has NO WAY of knowing this.
**

Yes. This was snipped.

No. I’m not about to read what Chronos said. You stated

“No one will duplicate a name that has already been claimed”

I don’t see how anything Chronos says or does can be related to this. This is your SNAFU, not his.

You don’t have to understand how you told yourself here. In fact, I would like it better if you didn’t. Then again, once I show you a Tell, would you admit it?

[Chronos]

Nope. Nanook knew it (see above). Tom Scud knew it (133). Heck even after I agreed with you (117), I came around after a little thought, and saw the power of it. It’s not that complicated – I am not buying your ignorance claim.

Really? Nanook and Tom knew that Mahaloth had not issued the Scum safe aliases to begin with? He never told us that until after the fact. They guessed correctly that he did not do so, but that doesn’t change the fact that it was a guess.

Yeah, not a big fan of the coincidence. You had every chance to post what you just said in 222, or at any time prior to Mahaloth’s intervention. Posting it now is too convenient, and carries little weight.

I had every chance to post it, and no reason to do so. I didn’t see any point to going into great detail on what I wasn’t going to do after all.

You remember Nanook, right?

Yes, but I remember Tom Scud pushing harder for the name claim than Nanook was. And you seem awfully certain of the Scum’s motivations, there… I’m just guessing; are you?

[cardinal_fang]

@Meeko

No one will duplicate a name that has already been claimed

I proved that they could. But, ok, lets continue.

Well, you proved that an idiot could (in your example). You didn’t explain why they would.

@Meeko

Could you dodge the question even more next time? I doubt it. He would claim Steven Survivor just to prove how wrong you are. Scum love confusion. I’m not about to begin to guess what elaborate schemes scum boards create.

Why would someone risk a counter-claim just to prove “how wrong [I was]”? Am I missing something?

@Meeko

And, less sarcastically, he would claim S.S. if he felt he could make a better case than the actual S.S. . In your case, I would advise against this tactic.

And get lynched a day later? Why do this? Why not use the safe alias and avoid having to make a case altogether? You know, use it for the reason Mahaloth gave it to them?

@Meeko

[snip]**

You somehow know that names can’t be duplicated. Town has NO WAY of knowing this. **

Why would Mahaloth assign duplicate names to the players here? I suppose I am making an assumption that he didn’t, but I heavily doubt I am alone in that assumption. Is this my “tell?”

@Meeko

Yes. This was snipped.

No. I’m not about to read what Chronos said. You stated

“No one will duplicate a name that has already been claimed”

I don’t see how anything Chronos says or does can be related to this. This is your SNAFU, not his.

You don’t have to understand how you told yourself here. In fact, I would like it better if you didn’t. Then again, once I show you a Tell, would you admit it?

Well, if you insist on being right instead of reading the posts and at least attempting to understand what I am saying, I can’t really help you any further.

Also, I apologize if I insulted you – the planet comment was snarky, I admit.

[cardinal_fang]

@Chronos

Really? Nanook and Tom knew that Mahaloth had not issued the Scum safe aliases to begin with? He never told us that until after the fact. They guessed correctly that he did not do so, but that doesn’t change the fact that it was a guess.

So you believed that the scum might have safe aliases, and that’s why you were so against the otherwise compelling case? Please direct me to your post that states this reason.

In fact, no one raised it as an issue prior to Mahaloth’s intervention. They weren’t guessing because they did not think of it (or at least they did not post it). No one did.

Again, another reason you could well have posted at the time, instead of here and now.

@Chronos

I had every chance to post it, and no reason to do so. I didn’t see any point to going into great detail on what I wasn’t going to do after all.

So you weren’t going to run the analysis after all? Then why did you say you were until Mahaloth called it off:

@Chronos

OK, given the above tweak, is there still any argument in favor of the name claim? It doesn’t look like it, to me.

Oh, and thank you, Mahaloth. I was contemplating trying to put together a massive Monte Carlo simulation of the results of a mass-claim, but I think you just saved me a lot of work.

@Chronos

Yes, but I remember Tom Scud pushing harder for the name claim than Nanook was. And you seem awfully certain of the Scum’s motivations, there… I’m just guessing; are you?

Huh? Nanook is confirmed town, as you may recall. And who said Tom Scud was scum? Unless you know something we don’t…

[storyteller0910]

Did a full re-read last night, and honestly I’m having trouble getting my brain wrapped around this game so far. I think I know why: we’re talking a lot about the name claim - not just about the name claim in particular, but about people’s reactions to it. I am as big a culprit as anyone, but I think we need to stop. The problem is that almost any reaction to the name claim: fierce opposition, strong support, indifferent, uncertain - could be Town-motivated or could be Scum-motivated. I do have concerns about Chronos’ “we shouldn’t claim now, but maybe later when we’re on the verge of losing” approach, for which I can’t see a pro-Town justification, but otherwise? I think the entire issue, and thus a sizable portion of the first two Days, is basically a gigantic null tell.

But not all of it. Through all the noise, there has been voting, and some of that voting is surely Scum jockeying for position. I think I’m going to go back and track the votes, beginning with the voting sequence that led to yesterDay’s lynch and moving through toDay, and see what I can see. More to come.

---

On another note: regarding last Night’s events. I wasn’t trying to be all magic-baggy with my original post. I would prefer not to post the actual color I received, because I really am not sure whether what happened last Night was reflective of something benign or malicious or what, or even what happened last Night, period.

Based on the PM I received, I consider it possible, but by no means certain, that there is a role-blocker at work. Worth considering as we move ahead.

[Zeriel]

storyteller, somehow that’s even MORE magic-baggy than the original.

I do have to agree with you, though–the claim crap has got to get off the table, in favor of (shock shock horror horror) actually playing some Mafia here.

Me, I’m comfortable with my vote.

[Telcontar]

I’m having a bit difficulty tracking the posts of late Monday night; seems like utter chaos. I still think Meeko is probably town and don’t extract from that exchange any particular reason to believe that Cardinal fang is scum. This game seems particularly eager to seize on minor wording confusion as a scum tell and I think that is really unhelpful. It might be preferable to assume a somewhat greater degree of good faith in post interpretation; most of us are town after all. In other news, I’m interested by the Chronos case, but am not yet willing to endorse.

Sticking with my Oredigger vote. My case is still at:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11263628&postcount=637

[Chronos]

So you believed that the scum might have safe aliases, and that’s why you were so against the otherwise compelling case? Please direct me to your post that states this reason.

I believed that there might be something in the setup that would prevent the name-claim strategy from being useful. One possible way this could be the case, as I mentioned in my first post on the subject, would be if the names and alignments were randomized. Another way it could be the case would be if the Scum were issued aliases. And there are probably other ways it could be handled, too, that I’m not thinking of. If any of those were the case (and remember, nobody knew but the Scum and Mahaloth, and they weren’t telling), then we would have had all of the disadvantages of a mass name-claim, but none of the advantages. Some Townies like Tom Scud correctly guessed that the game setup did not have any such safeguards, but some Townies like myself considered the risk too great that there were.

So you weren’t going to run the analysis after all? Then why did you say you were until Mahaloth called it off:

I was going to run the analysis after all, until Mahaloth made the rule change, and then I changed my plans and wasn’t going to. I thought I had made that clear.

Huh? Nanook is confirmed town, as you may recall. And who said Tom Scud was scum? Unless you know something we don’t…

Yes, of course Tom and Nanook were Town. Where’s the dispute of that? But at least one of them was killed by Scum, and we were discussing why the Scum chose to kill that person. You’re the one who said that Nanook was the Scum’s worst nightmare, and I’m curious how you can be so certain about what nightmares the Scum are having.
Meanwhile, storyteller, I was thinking about your role-block or whatever it was last night, and was planning on asking you more about it right now, anyway. I’m having a hard time thinking of a scenario under which it would be pro-Town for you to say that you think you were blocked, but don’t want to post the PM. The biggest problem is that, assuming that what you got was a role-block, then the role-blocker presumably already knows how es own power works, and can probably deduce from what you’re saying and not saying everything e needs to know about what happened. And if, as seems likely, the role-blocker is Scum, then you’re not keeping anything secret from any of the Scum, but only from Town.

[storyteller0910]

@Chronos

Meanwhile, storyteller, I was thinking about your role-block or whatever it was last night, and was planning on asking you more about it right now, anyway. I’m having a hard time thinking of a scenario under which it would be pro-Town for you to say that you think you were blocked, but don’t want to post the PM. The biggest problem is that, assuming that what you got was a role-block, then the role-blocker presumably already knows how es own power works, and can probably deduce from what you’re saying and not saying everything e needs to know about what happened. And if, as seems likely, the role-blocker is Scum, then you’re not keeping anything secret from any of the Scum, but only from Town.

Underlining mine.

The problem is that: (first underlined portion): I am not at all certain that what I got was a role block. I think it is possible, but can’t know for sure. It might have been other things; and

(second underlined portion): I see no particular reason why “it seems likely” that the role-blocker, if there is one, is Scum. Pro-Town role blockers have been at least as common as Scum blockers in these games.

I do find it interesting that you are building discussion - mildly accusatory discussion, no less - on the basis of two rather large assumptions for which there is no evidence. You throw in the “assuming” caveats to keep it vague, but there they are, two facts that you are using to bolster an argument that you would only know for sure in one way.

And you know, I’m tired of being off-the-record. Pending the results of a more in-depth analysis:

vote Chronos

[Mahaloth]

**Remember, day is ending at 11:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday instead of Noon. **
**
Vote Count

Oredigger(3): Telcontar, Meeko, Pedescribe

Chronos(3): Jimmy Chitwood, CardinalFang, Storyteller

AllWalker(2): Zeriel, USCDiver

Imaginary Fiend(1): Chronos

Zeriel(1): ScubaBen

ShadowFacts(1): Imaginary Fiend**

[Meeko]

@storyteller0910

Based on the PM I received, I consider it possible, but by no means certain, that there is a role-blocker at work. Worth considering as we move ahead.

Storyteller, I believe you. After looking back at all the things you have said, I can follow your logic. My guess on what you have said, is that the game has a role blocker, but you can not confirm it yet. Do I have this correct?

Also, I am right there with you on a related issue.

Claims reveal little, and town needs to eventually organize. I am glad to have gotten my claim out in the right timing window, but, I honestly think that I was the exception that proved Mahaloth’s [Added] rule. Claiming at this point is next to useless. Only scum are pushing for a claim at this point, and they are doing it to fuel chaos, confusion and misinformation.

Unvote Digger

Chronos, are you for, or against a Claim at this point?

I need to find an answer for this, either with you, or with out you, before I can make a vote.

[Chronos]

The problem is that: (first underlined portion): I am not at all certain that what I got was a role block. I think it is possible, but can’t know for sure. It might have been other things; and

What else can I assume? You said you got something that you think was a role-block. If you posted your PM, then I could form my own opinions on what it was, but you haven’t, so all I have to work with is either you’re lying, or you were role-blocked, or I can’t attach any meaning to what you said.

(second underlined portion): I see no particular reason why “it seems likely” that the role-blocker, if there is one, is Scum. Pro-Town role blockers have been at least as common as Scum blockers in these games.

Mahaloth has said that the power roles have a relatively small part in this game, so I assume that the Scum have few power roles. And we don’t know that the Scum have a designated killer. Without a designated killer or many power roles, there’s not much for a Town-aligned roleblocker to do.

I do find it interesting that you are building discussion - mildly accusatory discussion, no less - on the basis of two rather large assumptions for which there is no evidence. You throw in the “assuming” caveats to keep it vague, but there they are, two facts that you are using to bolster an argument that you would only know for sure in one way.

Well, of course. We don’t know enough to have any sort of discussion without assumptions, and what’s the point of a discussion that isn’t at least somewhat accusatory?

I would also like to point out that the three people voting for me include two people from AllWalker’s overlap list of heightened suspicion. If I get lynched, I hope that other Townies will look back on those votes with the knowledge that I’m innocent.

[Chronos]

Meeko, I am against a claim at this point, until such time as further information arises, or we become desparate.

[Meeko]

@Chronos

Meeko, I am against a claim at this point, until such time as further information arises, or we become desparate.

Out of game, Chronos, I like your style. I can only hope that it is not clouding my choices in this game.

I hate having to decide who to vote for. But, not voting is one of the most anti-town things town can make, right?

[Meeko]

Untill I have more to go on, or, someone else to look at, I feel comfortable currently doing this
**
Vote Cardinal.
**
There is no way Town can execute his plan with out either Lying / Misinforming OR fully claiming. Both are anti-town, and the latter is only a bit worse at this point. And both SUCK for town.

To say nothing of my entire PIN number palindrome tell. [I believe Cardinal had a huge scum tell there. Period]

---

**
Anyone seen Chitwood? **

[Telcontar]

Gah, this voting is scattered. I see chaos, and I hear the distant echoes of scum laughing.

At the moment the leaders are Chronos (3), Allwalker (2), and Oredigger (2). Not leading by very much of course. If you’re voting for someone else I encourage you to review these three cases and see if you have a preference between them. I’m still somewhat suspicious of **Oredigger **and don’t see much meat against Chronos and Allwalker, so I’m keeping my vote parked where it is.

Also, if you haven’t voted (shadow, IF), please do so. We need the information your votes give.

[storyteller0910]

Meeko - I say the following with some trepidation, but…

I am having difficulty following your argument. This is not to say that I think it’s necessarily bad, but I do not understand it. Can I ask a favor?

Would you sum up the “tell” you see in cardinal in one or two short sentences, without any metaphors or allusions or vague language?

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

I’m right here, Meeko. What can I do for you?

cardinal_fang’s case against Chronos tracks my general hunch, and helped me pin down something that I had trouble with initially; it’s the way Chronos has remained visible, and gotten his votes on the record, without his visibility being in any way related to his vote or the reasons for his vote. Almost every post has furthered a discussion about something other than his vote. Getting a vote on the record early then spending lots and lots of time having discussions with Town about strategies and first principles, and rehashing previous decisions is a fantastic way to hide in the crowd, especially while the town is running around in nine different directions at once.

Obviously my opinion on the matter is of record already, but I don’t think there’s a better case out there.

[Meeko]

@Jimmy_Chitwood

I’m right here, Meeko. What can I do for you?

Just making sure you are still with us.

[Telcontar]

Oops, I just realized that IF had voted. Sorry for calling you out.
Allwalker, Shadow, and Oredigger on the other hand, actually haven’t voted.

Meeko, can you answer story about a summary of your case against cardinal? not sure i follow either.