Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

Sonofabitch sonofawhoreferkeeristsake.

Well, so there that is.

**Confirming that I can’t quote Telcontar. **

Telcontar : Sorry for getting your name in there. :eek: It was another guy with a T. :smack::smack:

I hope you aren’t smudged or offended by me. [I have a lot of people against me here, I don’t need to make another one.]

Well crap.

Alright, time to throw out all my old assumptions, and start fresh.

Given that quotes are off :

Pede Said :

Alright, time to throw out all my old assumptions, and start fresh.

Im curious as to what they were. Even if wrong.

**Alive:

Telcontar
AllWalker
Chronos
Imaginary Friend
Meeko
BillMC replaced by USCDiver
Pedescribe
Paulwhoisaghost replaced by Scubaben
Zeriel
ShadowFacts
Jimmy Chitwood
Guy Incognitto, replaced by Storyteller
Cardinalfang
Dead:

Ichini(Sun, Ordinary Survivor)
Tom Scud(Hurley, Ordinary Survivor)
Nanook(Kate, Ordinary Survivor)
Oredigger(Sayid, Ordinary Survivor)**

OK, I obviously have mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, I’m glad that I survived, but on the other, I’m disappointed that we lost another Town. And on the gripping hand, it would have been kind of convenient for me to have died now, since I’ll be more busy starting next week (not enough so that I’ll need a sub, but I’ll be participating less).

I also find it interesting that Sayid turned out to be Vanilla. From what I know of the show, I would have kind of expected him to have been a power role, either something vigilante-ish or something detective-ish.

Ok. The Price is Right is over with now.

Perhaps now I can be more coherent.

Well, that sucks, and I can’t say I’m super surprised, but at least he was a ordinary survivor.

Sorry, guys. I think my silence got me killed, wish I could have mounted a better defense. Go Town!

Damn. I was hoping we were onto something there. I guess not.

Total crap. “Undermotivated?” In Meeko’s post, he did two things:

  1. He ignored the link in which BillMC provided his reasons for voting.
  2. He cut this link from the quote. This link was in the middle of the text, and was the only thing removed.
    One of these or the other could be just an honest mistake. Both of these together? It stank of Scumminess. In my eyes, this was a solid piece of data as I could not see how this could emerge by Townie design or honest mistake. Which was a lot better than the vaguely suspicious behaviour of pedescribe.

My vote was based on logic. Not on some Scum stretch. Not on bad blood as Meeko seems to think - the last game was the last game; everything reset at the beginning of this. I was by no means protecting pede - the case against him, even at that stage, was weak. Besides, everyone who didn’t vote for him could be considered “protecting” him.

  1. Well, we can’t have gut feelings in this. I know some other people have, but intuition needs logic to back it up.
  2. That’s because you didn’t read his post denouncing your WoW on pede
  3. Sure did.
  4. I don’t have a grudge against you. I never did.
  5. It wasn’t. I like tot hink I am above that, at least.
  6. So, try and prove it. But if everyone had gut feelings based on that, this game would get bogged down in vague superstition.
  7. I agree. He is a clever player.
  8. I can’t speak for the newly departed, but don’t always assume anyone out to get you is doing it for personal reasons.

Snipped.

Allwalker, I put “”" “gut feeling” “”" in a quite a few quotes. This was getting at the fact that I am was than pleased with Pede’s vote. I am not going to lie, you and I could have handled Crimson, and yes, the brief tiff we have had so far in LOST. Not the best first impression, and you truly never get a second chance to make a first impression.

It is all moot now, because we have night to get through, and well, I can’t speak for you, but I know I am town, so, I am in the fetal position in behind the trees over there.

I was less than pleased with Pede’s vote.

Classic noob mistake - disappearing into the trees is the most dangerous thing you can do. The camera follows you at first but loses sight of you… pan to other people’s worried faces… the tension builds… there is a scream, and Meeko’s body is flung towards the shore.

My advice - stay where the cameras can see you. If you are still and the music changes, run. If you are running and the music changes, stop. Oh, and be good looking and popular enough so that the writers can’t write you off. That last one is critical.

Can you explain the difference between one, two or three sets of quotation marks in your posts? I’m having a hard time interpretting what that means.

You are probably over thinking it.

They are to emphasize the quote-ness. The fact that I am not saying it, and also the fact that I think it is odd to begin with.

Most recently, I had " “”" gut “”" " to refer back to the quoted quotefest.

Well, I have no hope for the good looks. As to the stay in view of camera, you want me to keep on talking?

I have hit my :smack: quota for the month, I fear.

That is a safe bet.

I see no reason to change my perspective on things at the moment. We’ve now had two late-Day switcheroos, both ending in town players getting lynched. I think Chronos is scum and I think it looks a hell of a lot like pedescribe was determined to look scummier no matter how brazen he had to be.

Telcontar and storyteller don’t look too great at the moment either.

Hey, I made the best case I could, honestly presented the arguments, and admitted it wasn’t ironclad. We’re going to get a lot of lynches wrong under the best of circumstances. I was also the first vote, not like i was piling on to a winning horse (recall that 3 people had voted for IF before I voted for someone else).

Story is another story :stuck_out_tongue:

From our two town lynches:
Oredigger(5): Telcontar, AllWalker, Pedescribe, ScubaBen, Storyteller
Ichini(6): Chronos, Zeriel, AllWalker, Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Storyteller

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the case rather suggests itself. Still, there’d be no reason for him to switch last minute unless at least one of chronos and IF was mafia, which might more be a reason to go back and lynch one of them than story. Allwalker was the third vote each time (since it was clear that pedescribe would switch back to oredigger if asked), but I don’t see any reason to read too deeply into that yet.

In pedescribe’s (limited) defense: he did clearly state that he was suspicious of both IF and Oredigger and was happy to hang whichever attracted more attention. It’s a bit more scatter shot than I tend to be, but it’s not necessarily anti town (despite appearances).

Feh. I know it’s an easy conclusion to draw and all, but it’s false.

Anyway, moving on:

Name claim: revisited.

Thirteen players remain, of which either three, four, or five are Scum.

If two pro-Town players die toNight as last Night, we will be down to either 6-5 (definitively lynch-or-lose), 7-4 (potentially lynch-or-lose, depending on the source of the extra Night kill and his/her actions the following Night), or 8-3 (definitely not lynch-or-lose).

If only one pro-Town player (and no one else) dies toNight, we will be down to either 7-5 (probably lynch-or-lose), 8-4 (not lynch-or-lose, but getting there), or 9-3 (not bad at all).

If one pro-Town player and one Scum die to Night, we will be down to either 7-4 (not lynch or lose, but getting there), 8-3 (not terrible), or 9-2 (in excellent shape).

THE UPSHOT: If there were three Scum to start, we’re probably OK no matter what happens toNight. If there were five, we will be at lynch-or-lose unless someone kills Scum toNight. If there were four (the most likely option IMO), things will be getting dicey if no Scum die toNight, and doubly so if there is a double Town kill.

Conclusion: if we’re not at a place where a name claim is definitively the right move, we are very close to that place. Depending on toNight’s results, we may also be nearing a place where Masons, if there are any, should claim and confirm. We need to maximize our chances of hitting Scum very soon, both to stave off defeat and to generate usable data to guide future lynches.


Sayid’s death and Town status is the fourth confirmed Townie to have the name of a major survivor of Oceanic Flight 815 (following Kate, Hurley, and Sun). I tentatively believe that Meeko is likely to be Town, and his claim – Sawyer – is also that of a major character.

This is not perfect data, but it is data. At this moment, 13 players are alive, and either eight, nine, or ten of them are Town. The following is a list of what I will term “major characters” who were also Flight 815 survivors (I’m perhaps arbitrarily defining a major character as one who was the focus of at least one flashback episode during the show’s first two seasons), and who have NOT been revealed or claimed to date.

  1. Jack Shepard
  2. John Locke
  3. Jin Kwon
  4. Charlie Pace
  5. Claire Littleton
  6. Michael Dawson
  7. Shannon Rutherford
  8. Boone Carlyle
  9. Ana-Lucia Cortes
  10. “Mister Eko”
  11. Bernard Nadler
  12. Rose Henderson Nadler
  13. Waaaaaaaaaalt (Walt)

Of these 12, I am perhaps stretching a bit with Bernard and Rose qualifying as “major characters." Nikki Fernandez and Paulo the Boy Toy got a flashback in Season 3, but calling them “major characters” would be a tremendously large stretch.

So forget about a name claim per se, for the moment, although I increasingly think one will be of value.

Is everyone who has not currently claimed willing to indicate, very simply, whether they appear on the list above?

I am willing, and yes, I appear on that list.